Dec 01 2006
Now If it Was An Assassination Attempt On Litvinenko…
I have been exchanging emails with a very interesting person who agrees with Clarice Feldman and disagrees with me on whether this entire event was an assassination attempt or not. The reason this person is interesting is she is a well known liberal writer and, while disagree on the motivations, she and I agree on all the questionable reporting. Well this person just emailed me one of the best theories I have ever seen that explains HOW the Polonium-210 might have been delivered so as to kill and leave little trace, and to get Scaramella and Litvinenko and Berezovsky all at once.
The creator of this excellent theory is none other than Raw Story’s Larisa Alexandrovna, and she presents her theory here at her blog:
Now many people have argued that because this is so obvious, it could not have been Putin or FSB without Putin. But people fail over and over to grasp what I have already reported and believe given the people with whom I had talked: this was not meant to be traced, they thought they could get away with it. So, if you had something that you thought no one would be able to trace and you wanted to take out three very visible targets, would you not do it? Ah, exactly, FSB would do it, but they must have miscalculated on the dosages.
…
If Mario is not involved, but contaminated, what did he share with Alex and when? The same question applies to Alex’s wife. What was it, a cup? No, because Mario did not go home to visit Alex’s family.
How about this:
A cigarette. In fact, a cigarette would be an extremely powerful way to distribute the polonium via air, causing another to inhale it. But since the only people that would inhale for any real duration would be people in close proximity to the victim, it is certain to do the trick as smoking at most places is not allowed and also because in small vapor qualities it would not be necessarily lethal, so not too much of a danger to the British public, although somewhat of a danger if things went badly.
This a bit of brilliant thinking. I mentioned myself that if Litvinenko and Scaramella were exposed at the same time, an airborne agent would make sense with the lesser (more dispersed) dose for Scaramella. In the true sense of serendipity, I was sent an email a few days ago by blogger AJacksonian regarding an 1987 study regarding Polonium-210 found in Syrian cigarettes. At the time I dismissed this since Polonium-210 is a natural element and it can be found in lots of places – but the point is it can be hidden in cigarettes (I of course emailed this to Larrisa).
Now if we combine Larrisa’s theory on the delivery mechanism with reader Crosspatch’s notes that Polonium-210 would best be brought in disoved in an acid-salt (probably in crystal form since liquids can be dodgy these days on plays) we have enough pieces to put together a good scenario. The Polonium suspension is possible what spilled in the Millenium hotel. Once in a liquid form of sufficient density of Polonium it one would simply need a syringe to deposit some of the suspension down the center of a cigarette and there you go.
Now do I believe this is what happened? Nope. But it is the first good theory that shows a sophisticated assassination plan, not some half baked one. I do not think the air plane contamination can be explained this way. And cigarettes would not explain the contamination in the planes or the Hotel where the Russians where staying. But you have to admire the beauty of the concept!
It’s pretty good forsight for Sasha’s killers to frame Lugovoi with Po210 contamination several days in advance like that, quite brilliant really.
I’m sure Berezovsky really wanted plutonium all over..The biggest point in AJ’s theory is the plutonium in Berezovsky’s office. Per the well-researched Times story, the plutonium was in 2 spots only–the sofa where Lugovi sat in the morning of Nov 1 and the copying machine where the Scaramela docs were reproduced in the afternoon when Litvinenko brought them over.
I do not see how this fits into AJ’s theory.Instead it fits with mine that Lugovi was tracking the stuff all over–possibly because he or Mr. One dropped in on the floor of his hotel room and because someone placed it on the Scaramella docs which were (until he gave them to Litvinenko) were encapsulated in an envelope.
Dang, I just lost a loooong post when I hit the Tab key to indent. Oh well, you are all now saved from having to slog through it!
The Guardian is reporting new info that Litvinenko was running a blackmail operation against rich emigres, and oligarchs, and vulnerable wealthy Russians. Is this the reason for the reported “falling out” with Berezovsky? Litvinenko is a self-proclaimed (wealthy) “businessman now.” Was he being blackmailed?
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1962829,00.html
Barbara, nice to meet you.
If they had a falling out, why did he run over to Berezovsky with the Scaramella docs immediately after leaving the sushi restaurant?
He may have been at odds or even blackmailing some of the emigrees, but seemed to run to Berezovsky immediately when he learned he was on a hit list. The Times says he showed the docs to B who had them copied.This suggests (a) they were still on reasonable terms , and (b) he regarded Berezovsky still as an ally.
What is interesting is that Erinys might provide a conduit from Iran via Iraq.
Keep hope alive, cp. %^)
Yup Clarice, love that document theory. Where’s the reporting, talk to Scara… Scary man, what’re these Brit tabloids doing anyway. Forget the Royals, get over it!
Not really “keeping hope” alive so much as keeping my eyes open. I see absolutely nothing to link Putin to anything so far. I *do* however see the possibility of trade in illicit nuclear materials and a possible accidental exposure or, if what someone else posted is true, a murder based on the fact that Litvinenko was blackmailing people. Those possibilities just seem much more reasonable.
If he was regularly handling material such as polonium, it seems reasonable he could have been contaminated. It one of his “associates” knew someone in that business (smuggling nuclear materials) it seems reasonable that they might have reason to kill Litvinenko because he was engaged in blackmail.
If Putin or the FSB had done it, there wouldn’t be radioactive material scattered all over europe.
The document theory isn’t mine–it’s the Times’. IIRC the thorough check of the Sussex Hotel where Scaramella was staying turned up nothing..Is that right?
Yet there was polonium on the copying machine and they have winkled out that Litvinenko took the docs over there after he met with Scaramella and Berezovsky had them copied on that machine.
If polonium was on those docs and Scaramella had them at the hotel, it would appear that the envelope encapsulated the polonium and kept it from contaminating the room.
Clarice, I think they were still friends, but I have read several places, as well as the following, that they “recently quarreled”:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23376760-details/MI5+told+Litvinenko:+Your+life+is+in+danger/article.do
Don’t know. I believe that Lugovoy is in over his radioactive head, though. If Litvinenko were blackmailing him, perhaps Lugovoy was duped into carrying poison for the FSB? Maybe he owed them a favor?
I’m not quite getting the Iranian connection, CP and Barbara.
Litvinenko had a huge dose of polonium in him. More than he could have gotten from casual contact with a document. He ingested about 200 micrograms, if the news reports are correct. That amount IS visible to the naked eye and would be more than what one would inhale or accidently ingest from contaminated fingers.
200 micrograms derived at by news reports that he had 100 times the lethal dose and 2 micrograms is generally considered a certain lethal dose. Anything over about 6 or 7 picograms being considered hazardous.
For what it;s worth, the Times article makes manifest that the contamination of Litvinenko could not have occurred prior to the afternoon of November 1.
The Times did not suggest Litvinenko got it from the document. OTOH it’s possible that the source of the far smaller contamination of Scaramella is from there.
If there was a pipeline providing the Chechens in Russia with nuclear material from Iran, Erinys could have been the conduit. They do quite a bit of business in Iraq to include security contracts there for the Iraqi government. It is possible the Iranians would use Erinys as a conduit out of the region. Iranians smuggle the stuff to Iraq and pass it to Erinsys who gets it to London, they hand it to the Russians in London for transport to the Chechens in Russia.
I’m still reeling from all the information in that Times article. Litvinenko ran with a rough crowd, to say the least.
CP, that sounds awfully roundabout and complicated to me.
It is an amzing article.
In my own mind I feel I’m the originator of the document theory – that Po210 on the documents could have fallen on the sushi and that Sasha’s handling of the contaminated documents would have lead to his ingesting large amounts of Po210, I then elabarated that Scaramella could have been unaware of all this if someone had taken the documents, put them in a dosed envelope, and given them to Scaramella to pass on to Sasha. I think I wrote all this here on AJs site.
In any case, the amount of Po in grams is very small – crush a few salt crystals and throw that into an envelope, let it creep about in its self-destructive popcornish way, and let Sasha open it and take out the docs while he’s eating.
Now the radioactivity on the Xerox machine might indicate that the documents weren’t blazingly hot, just contaminated by Sasha handling them after drinking polonium tea with Lugovoi. I’m waiting to hear how hot they are.
I’d sure like to know what Scaramella and BorisBadenov have told the investigators.
Yes, the Iran route seems far fetched to me, too.
And the reports of his conversion seem more disinformation. The Times reports:
“The funeral arrangements are yet to be decided, but the traditional elements of Russian Orthodox ceremony have been ruled out. The Health Protection Agency will not allow mourners to pass the body of the former spy in an open casket”
Also, if the Italian has “exponentially” less contamination as had been reported and Litvinenko has 100 times the lethal dose, he could still have a pretty significant amount of it in his system. Nobody knows exactly how this stuff behaves at various dosages because there hasn’t been a lot of exposure to it. So Scaramella could be a walking deadman. I would imagine they are carefully monitoring his white cell count.