Oct 18 2006
Where Is The GOP House
Update: One really has to questions polls which ignore the Battleground Poll’s finding that the country is 61% conservative verses 34% liberal. Without an accurate model the polls are junk. – End Update.
If you look at the top 40 GOP at-risk house seats at RCP one would think the Democrats have a good chance of controlling the house. The problem is RCP uses the poll numbers as is, as if there is no bias in polls – something we all know is not true simply by recalling the 2004 election. My experience has been a bias of 3-5% against Reps in the polls over the years. So we need a way to detect the bias and account for it. What I look for is to consider the VA model, where the state runs about 5+% in actual vote margins compared to the early polls (for some reason the polls become very accurate the last week – and differ from the ones taken running up to the last week).
So let’s assume a poll bias (5%) will tip a race in any district that voted clearly for Bush, and will not have an effect in a district that was close or for Kerry. Then we can baliwick the Top 40 into four categories: Probable Rep, Toss Up, Probable Dem and Special Factors (the poll bias model won’t apply). The last category is for races where the candidate’s individual issues are driving the polls, not any inherent bias. Those I will address individually. I have kept the RCP ranking in the listings below so folks can see where I differ with the experts. With that in mind, this is AJStrata’s warped sense of the field of play this week:
Probable Rep
6. CO-7: (Open – R) – The polls have been trending towards the Rep with the last two being down 6 and a tie, giving a 3% advantage to the Dem. The district voted 52-47 for Bush so the bias correction can be applied making this a probable Rep (due to the poll trend line).
12. IN-2: (Chocola – R) – The Trend is definitely heading towards Chocola from a high deficit of 16% to the last two polls averaging 2.5%. The District voted for Bush 56-43 so applying the bias correction puts this at +2.5% for the Rep. Combined with clear trend lines this is probably a seat the Reps hold.
16. IN-9: (Sodrel – R) – Bush won by 59-40 in this district. Polls trending towards Sodrel quite nicely. Last two polls show an average of 5% for the democrat. Applying the bias correction would put this at a tie, but the trend is clear where the momentum is heading. I could use the last poll and have Sodrel up 3% after the correction.
19. IL-6: (Open – R) – Polls show between a tie and a 2.5% Dem (if you average the last two polls). District went for Bush 53-47. Applying the bias correction results in a Rep hold.
20. MN-6: (Open – R) – Ignoring the Star Tribune poll (these polls are always way off) we see the average of the last two polls is 1% for the Dem. The district went for Bush 58-42. Applying the Bias correction gives the Rep a 4% lead. This seat should stay in Rep hands.
21. FL-13: (Open – R) – The Democrat pollster poll is suspect. The last poll showed 2% lead for the Dem in a district that went for Bush 56-43 in 2004. I would either apply the bias correction to the 2% and come up with a 3% lead for the Rep, or say the trend line is heavily towards the Rep. Either way I would expect the Reps to hold this seat.
22. CT-2: (Simmons – R) – Simmons is leading in a District that went heavily towards Kerry. My guess is Simmons will hold.
24. OH-2: (Schmidt – R) – RCP has no details on this race. If I average the last two polls it is the Rep up by 3%. If we add a bias correction it is a clear win. So it goes in the Rep column.
25. WA-8: (Reichert – R) – Polls show an average rep lead of 2.5%. Kerry took this district so a bias correction is risky to apply. If we did the Rep would have a clear edge. So we keep it in the Rep column.
26. FL-22: (Shaw – R) – No polling is showing any real movement towards the Dem and Shaw was elected by a 65-35 margin in 2004. Stays Rep.
27. OH-1: (Chabot – R) – No indication of shift towards dem.
Toss Up
2. AZ-8: (Open – R) – Dem Giffords has been leading, but that lead is shrinking from 12-25% to 8%. The district voted for Bush 53-46%. Applying the bias correction puts it at +3 Dems. Because of the trend in the polls it may be even closer now.
8. OH-18: (Open – R) – The district voted 57-43 for Bush. Polls show small trend towards the Rep. Applying the bias correction results in a 2% lead for the dem. This one is a toss up.
10. NY-24: (Open – R)– No polling at RCP. Open seat contest. Split Bush-Kerry vote. Toss up.
15. CT-4: (Shays – R) – The polls show a tie, the District went for Kerry, I am hesitant to apply the bias in this case. If I did it would push Shays into the win column and a keeper for the Reps. One to watch for the national trend. If Shays pulls ahead the Democrat tide will have ebbed.
18. PA-6: (Gerlach – R) – The last two polls show an average lead for the Dem of 4%, which if the bias was applied would leave a Rep +1%. Given the district went for Kerry I see this as an obvious toss up.
23. PA-8: (Fitzpatrick – R) – No way to tell on this one!
Probable Dem
4. IN-8: (Hostettler – R) – The Democrat is so far ahead the bias correction will not change this race.
7. IA-1: (Open – R) – The district voted 53-46 for Kerry, so the bias would not apply. The Dem also has a solid lead in the polls.
11. OH-15: (Pryce – R) – The district split Kerry-Bush 50-50. Pryce won two years ago 60-40. There is only one poll out (+12 Dem) making the poll risky to use (need various polls from various sources). But since this analysis is simply to apply the poll bias correction and re-assess, I must put this race in the Dem column for now (+7). I have my doubts on any race that is tied to Foleygate as the reason a popular incumbent will lose.
14. NC-11: (Taylor – R) This race is marginally in the Probable Dem category. The District voted for Bush 57-43 so applying a bias correction brings the race down to maybe 4% for the popular Ex NFL QB (and Dem) Schuler). But Talylor won 55-45 last time so I am again suspect on why a popular incumbent would be tossed out for a famous name in a Republican district which would abhor a Democrat led House. If a later poll comes in showing a much tighter race I would change this assessment.
17. NM-1: (Wilson – R) – District went for Kerry and the Dem has an 8 point lead in the latest poll. Even applying the bias correction would leave this a likely democrat pick up.
Special Factors
1. TX-22: (Open – R) – This being Delay’s old seat which voted 64-36 Bush I still need to give this to the Reps. If there is a Dem wave I will be wrong. But I am not seeing a Dem Wave. Goes Rep
3. FL-16: (Open – R) – This is Mark Foley’s old seat. The district voted for Bush 54-46. The average of the last three polls is 6% for the Democrat. Applying the bias correction would make this a toss with a measely +1 Dems.
5. PA-10: (Sherwood – R) – One thing I do not like about the RCP method is it puts in any poll out, which can allow one poll to push the average out of skew if there are not a lot of polls out for a race. This is one where I am not sure about the lates poll. But assuming a 9% lead and observing this very conservative district voted 60-40 for Bush means we can apply the bias and determine a likely 5% lead for the Dem. The personal issues with Sherwood make this a Probable Dem pick up. If later polls show a fear of a Democrat Congress tightening this race I may move it.
9. NY-26: (Reynolds – R) – This race is being rocked by the Foley non-scandal. Why Reynolds is even mentioned in the scandal is beyond me. So while polls showed an initial hit for Reynolds, and unless there is something else in play, I would expect the Foley fallout to subside and bring this race back into the Rep column. The District’s 55-43 vote for Bush tells me it probably will not give Democrats the House over Foleygate. I agree this is a toss up, but I could just as easily put it into the Rep category. Will keep it a Toss Up until another poll comes out.
13. PA-7: (Weldon – R) – Weldon’s race just got very complicated with the late breaking FBI raids in his family. The polls show a Sestak lead of around 4.5%. The District voted 53-47 Bush so the bias can be applied – gingerly! My guess is the raid may cause a sympathy vote towards Weldon since the target is his daughter. Toss Up for now.
I only went through the top 27 races because after that number the idea these races were in play was getting quite thin. So the end result I see is this: Dems look to pick up 6, with another 7 as toss ups. Running the table the Dems will not take control of the House. But I doubt they will run the table of the toss ups. So I would say the dems could win 6-9 seats this year, and fall short of their fantasy. I understand why Rove would be so confident right now.
Update: What is bizarre is the news that the Democrats see pick up of 40+ seats! Something is happening this election cycle with the polls, there is no doubt. Why do I get the feeling the Dems are using the same pollsters and polling methods that convinced them Al Gore was going to cake walk over Bush? We are going to see a political disaster this fall, no two ways about it. But which side will it be on?
It is certainly refreshing to see someone who is not so pessimestic about the up coming election. No one knows for sure what will happen but all of this doom and gloom has become depressing..there are certain sites I have stopped reading for the moment as instead of even looking for a rainbow they have found all storm clouds.
Thanks for some sensible commentary and breakdown of these “polls”. It’s nice to see facts vs. hysteria.
SMH10,
Avoid the herd mentality. It is usually wrong anyway. For some reason there is comfort in being wrong with lots of others, as opposed to be independent and probably more accurate. Go figure.
Interresting analysis. I like the correction factor for the polls sponsored by major publications. The one that at times defies that is Rasmussen. The House is hard to figure out. I have been watching the Weldon/Sestack race as I thought it would be a bellweather. Now, I agree, it goes into the special circumstances. Wonder if some old FBI files where found or is this something from the same crowd that brought us the PlameGate? Now I am looking at the Shays’ race. Although CT is just plain independent. However, what brings me back is the interresting dynamics of the Lamont win in the primaries and how Repubs. started polling much better in the aftermath. Then Foley came out and things got real bad again. The Foley problem should begin to disapate.
The Senate stays Republican. The keys are VA and TN and Allen is not going to lose. I have watched Corker debate Ford on CSPAN. It is one of those cringing moments where you wonder if a professional politician could be so bad at debating. You can apply the Strata factor to TN and VA as Bush won both with big margins. With the correction both Corker and Allen win comfortably.
I agree with your analysis…
Plus with the Republican GOTV, everything will be okay in the end. And I’m one who is really feedup with the Republicans (hope they wake up) but there is zero chance I could vote for any of the Democrats – AND I always vote!!!
PS: Steele is going to win in MD
Oh yea!! Steele wins MD! His campaign commercials have been great. I love the old ’60s TV he is standing next to make a point about Cardin’s 40 years of politicting! Old Don King came out strong for Steele as well. Good to see.
PMII,
I agree 100% about Steele. His ads are the best (I live in NoVA). The polls are probably off by more than 10% given how the black community will vote verses what they will admit to in polls, etc.
Like the others, I appreciate the analysis. My instinct is with your general premise that the polls are substanitialy off this go around. Hug Hewitt’s show yesterday laid out he basis for the possible error (including an ahistorical assumption of voter turnout b/n identified R’s, D’s and I’s). Even so, the constant drumbeat has shaped my expectations going into this election.
I am curious if you performed any similar on Dem-held seats that might switch back to R’s using your analysis?
Nova M Radio, brought to you by impartial John Zogby.
Good Captain,
No, I did not look at potential Rep pick ups. My guess is there is one or two hidden out there. Just too busy today (this one post took too much time out of my day as it is).
Georgia has two races with potential GOP pickup
Mac Collins in GA8 and Max Burns in GA12 have a real good shot at picking up current democrat seats.
I have also read that Melissa Bean IL8, Leonard Boswell IA3 and Chet Edwards TX 17 are also possible pickups
Thanks for the optimistic (compared to the doom and gloom of others), analysis. It is much more comprehensive and thought out than most of the others I read.
Even C-SPAN, which tries to be neutral, is almost all one sided on this. Everything they read, from all the MSM, etc of course is spewing the party line.
I, too, find it hard to believe that Republicans will vote for a democrat just because they may not agree with the way things are going. So I don’t like the way the war in Iraq is going, that’s 64% according to polls, but does it mean I want it to get worse? Hell no, so vote for the Dems and they pull out. Oh yea, that would really make things better, sure. No the only dis-satisfaction I have is I want the Repubs to be stronger…….. not give up like the Dems would. So vote for a Dem? not no, but Hell no.
_
Beat you to it. See here and here.
Our GOP would be wise to spend some of their money down here in Tennessee helping Bob Corker defeat Harold Ford. Ford is a blatant liar and the media reports on his every word like it is the gospel. Corker is no match for a slick operator like Ford. (The late great political guru, Lee Atwater, was right. The public’s memory is about 2 weeks long.)
In addition to Corker not getting his message out because all the headlines are about something Ford has said, we have a total news blackout in the state on the Barry Stokes Scandal. Stokes, a big time Democrat Party contributor and friend of our Dem. Gov. Phil Bredesan, gave big campaign contributions to Dems. thereby earnnig himself big contracts and connections. Then he embezzeled and looted state and private interprise pension and investment funds his party connections had won for him. His arrest last Friday for embezzlement (Over $6 million from one auto parts manufacturer in Smyrna, Tn. that would be either Nissan or Saturn)
The headlines in the Knoxville News Sentinel, the major newspaper in East Tennessee, are either about Foleygate or some trival local happening. I finally goaded the editor into reporting on the Harry Ried Scandal but he put it on page 3A. It’s the only menton of it so far and the headlines were about his tipping his servants with campaign funds.
Early voting began in TN today and it is estimated that 3/4 of voters will vote early. It looks like most of them are going to be voting without having a clue.
The editor of the Knoxville News Sentinel is from the left coast and frequently prints letters from people who live out of state. He advised me, after I gave him hell for not reporting on Clinton’s attempted transfer of the Long Beach deep water Nuclear Sub Naval Station in CA to China , and the huge demonstrations and opposition from local citizens which blocked it, that he had run one story on it. It must have been small and well hidden article because I never saw it. He didn’t report that the Chinese moved that operation to Vancouver, BC either.
If I had not read about the Barry Stokes Scandal, and the State Dem. Party Chairman’s refusal to give the $50,000 plus, donated by Stokes, back to the bankruptcy court on the internet, I wouldn’t know about it. Marilyn
Rove’s Ruminations…
When the Washington Times story came out today saying Rove forsees a GOP victory. The man was a political consultant, he knows the system, he knows how it works, he knows what strategies are effective and he understands which issues will come to the fo…
Thanks AJ! We shall soon find out who is right.
From your fingertips to God’s ear, AJ!
Found this on Drudge:
“The candidate replacing Florida’s disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley on the ballot in next month’s election has been barred from posting signs at polling places clarifying that votes for Foley will actually go to him, authorities said on Wednesday”
This is both un-necessary and hilarious.
First for anyone astute in politics: it’s unnecessary because they already know it.
For the others, their vote will be unchanged, if they NORMALLY vote republican they still will because they don’t know the difference.
A recent man on the street question asked of many passerbys, NOT ONE PERSON had every even heard of Nancy Pelosi. NOT ONE, isn’t that great.
With all the September stories about how the voting machines don’t work, the CA voter bill or rights, RFK Jr’s run thru the interview media demanding paper trails, the Open letter recently signed by the Lib/Dems demanding paper trails, the ‘corruption’ pounding by the media against the Rep’s, the POLLS say the dems are ahead, and then the election and bam they don’t get the house………….It is 2000 and it is the Mexican presidential election all over again………..I smell a rat……….if the Dem’s protest the results we can forget N.Koreans, Iranians, and the Kens of the world cause we are going to be the laughing stock of the world.
By the way, has anyone read PJ O’Rourke’s take on the upcoming elections?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=12821&R=EE5A366DB
I stopped reading O’Rourke a LONG time ago, because frankly I think he’s a horse’s *ss. But I’ve gone over his latest screed several times and I can’t make head or tails of whether his take is merely “Swift-ian” (in which case he’s way out of his league) or whether he’s just on another useless rant.
(Someone once described Warren Christopher as “Cyrus Vance… without the charisma.” I would describe P.J. O’Rourke as Ann Coulter… without the class.)
Dubious, if that was the same piece Dr. Sanity quoted, it was satirical, and I thought most of it was pretty funny (I’m also not a big PJ fan, but now and then he connects).
FE, if they never heard of Pelosi, they really shouldn’t vote. I think that’s downright frightening.
There was a comment on Fox this afternoon — I could hear it, but couldn’t get to the screen to find out who was talking — but that there’s a decent chance the Foley seat will stay GOP. Obviously, I can’t vouch for whether that’s through-the-hat babbling or God’s Own Truth, but it feels good, so I believe it 🙂