Nov 08 2016

AJStrata’s Prediction for 2016 Election – Brexit In America?

Published by at 10:29 am under 2016 Elections,All General Discussions

Let’s just say up front I have no clear indication which way this election will go today.  We are in uncharted waters in terms of energy of the candidate’s supporters, the intimidation and violence, the candidates themselves and their baggage and if course turnout models. The polls have such huge error bars on them I suggest we start with ignoring them and enjoy the ride. Some will get it right, some won’t.

But let’s step back once more and look at the Brexit vote in the UK earlier this year. It was a vote that pitted the globalist elites against the working class who suffered extreme economic hardship at the hands of the elitists’ policies and their desire for personal wealth.

It was a grass roots uprising which tore apart the political alliances that had held sway for decades. Instead of left-right-middle, it was the upper 20% vs the lower 80%. And when that happens the results can be shocking.

To remind folks, on the day of the Brexit vote it was very bleak for the “leave” side (from one of my posts at the time):

The paper ballots were still being counted by hand. Only the British overseas territory of Gibraltar had reported final results. Yet the assumption of a Remain victory filled the room—and depressed my hosts. One important journalist had received a detailed briefing earlier that evening of the results of the government’s exit polling: 57 percent for Remain.

It looked so bleak that Nigel Farage, Brexit champion and UKIP leader, conceded they had lost when they polls closed – only to find out later they had won!

Bitter Nigel Farage has blamed Britain’s youth for his Brexit ‘defeat’ – saying the 48-hour extension of the registration deadline probably ‘tipped the balance’.

Speaking at tonight’s Leave.EU party after polls closed in the EU referendum, the stony-faced UKIP leader stepped back from his earlier almost-concession, where he said “Remain will edge it” an hour previously.

But the Ukip leader also admitted he’s probably lost.

I do not blame those in the political class for not being able to see outside their limited experience base. But no one on Brexit voting day understood there was a movement crashing down, one that rocked the foundation of the European Union.

So here we are today, facing a pivotal election that also pits the elites against Main Street USA.

I think I see the same movement building today that propelled Brexit to a win and Donald Trump to win the GOP primaries. Massive participation is one sign of a movement (which means the intimidation, violence and attempt to demoralize Trump supporters by the Democrats and their Media henchman has failed).

Is there energy on the Left? We are seeing the Dem early voting drop off in battleground states. I noted this in Colorado yesterday:

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_07

CNN noticed it in North Carolina:


They look very similar don’t they?  These two states are not in the same region of the USA, so could this be a national phenomena? We shall see. This is how Brexit won the day.

So, I still don’t know what will happen. But if I assume there is a Brexit-like wave here in the US, then conservative map would look like this


It is in the hands of the voters now. With such high turnout I will actually be able to accept the results of our democracy no matter who wins because it will be the will of The People.

Viva Les Deplorables!


7 responses so far

7 Responses to “AJStrata’s Prediction for 2016 Election – Brexit In America?”

  1. Mike M. says:

    From your lips to God’s ear, A.J.

    Personally, I agree with a piece Pat Caddell had up on Fox yesterday. He argued that Trump and Sanders were reflections of a significant number of middle-class people who were fed up with the political status quo…and they aren’t going away. These folks are looking at a nation in which the middle class is being shoved down into the lower class, while the wealthy get much richer.

    And Caddell argued that these people WILL be back.

  2. oneal lane says:


    Thanks for the final analysis.

    It will be hard for me to accept her victory, if it goes that way.
    If the people are that foolish we are in trouble. But then Obama is still popular after 8 years of absolute failure.


  3. AJStrata says:

    Mike M – agree this is not over. But it will be harder to get a new Trump through the primaries – the antibodies will have been deployed to protect the elites

  4. Mike M. says:

    AJ – Oh, they’ll try…but next time, the Populist candidate won’t come with a set of liabilities. Trump is a horrible candidate with a strong platform. Take that platform and put a good candidate on it.

  5. MarkN says:

    Colorado update(11/8/16) GOP – 34.8% Dem – 34.0% other – 31.2%

    GOP +18,693

  6. MarkN says:

    NC, FL, OH, IA, CO, and ME2 is exactly 269.

  7. Chikung69 says:

    Interesting exit polling here. No straight up answers like “Who did you cast your vote” but fascinating in part because a HRC or a Trump fan could literally wishcast some of this and graft a win on to their candidate. (Strong Leader? Check.) But scroll into the Indies data. I think that might be a partial tell right there.

    Indies feel their family situation is better off than 2012 but the country is worse off. Interesting.