Nov 07 2016

FL Early Voting 11_07_16: GOP Voting Drops Off, But Independents Continue Strong

Published by at 12:53 pm under 2016 Elections,All General Discussions

Update: Drudge confirms my analysis that Trump is in far less of a voting hole in Florida than Romney was the day before the election in 2012:

Mon Nov 07 2016 12:03:12 ET
**World Exclusive**

Data obtained by the DRUDGE REPORT shows presidential underdog Donald Trump outperforming Republican 2012 election results in Florida.

Mitt Romney went into Election Day down 161,000 in absentee ballots and early voting. He ended up losing the state by 74,000.

This time, in a dramatic surprise twist, Trump is only down 32,500! And Republicans tend to outvote Democrats on Election Day in Florida.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A late poll showed Trump nearing 50% in the sunshine state.


So take heart – this ain’t over. – AJStrata

End Update

The source for this data is here.

This last day before the election, and the day after In-Person voting ended in Florida, the Dems have a small lead in both number of ballots and percentage of the total ballots submitted.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_07

As of this morning, the Dem ballots led the GOP ballots by 88,012.  Again, a big number – but it does not translate into a big shift in the total.  The Dems will go into election day with ~39.9% of the early ballots to the GOP’s ~38.5%. A meager 1.4% difference.

Independents are at 19.3% if the total ballot count.

So we are in a  very tied up race in Florida. Moreover, with 6,424, 595 ballots cast, Florida has nearly hit the 50% mark of all registered voters.

Numbers released by the state Division of Elections Monday show that nearly 6.42 million voters have either voted early or voted by mail. There are nearly 12.9 million active registered voters.

Early voting wrapped up over the weekend. Election supervisors can continue to accept mailed in ballots.

This election is important and it looks like the voters are taking it seriously. It looks like we may hit record high turnout – a phenomena I think would benefit Trump. Participation in Florida was 72% in 2012 and 75% in 2008 (source here). I seriously doubt the Clinton campaign is such a voter magnet – especially given the size of the crowds greeting her and Kaine in Florida.

Is this a replay of Trump’s ability to bring out new voters? Is this like Brexit, where the turnout against the elites was so strong the pollsters’ turnout models could not conceive of such a thing happening?

With nearly 50% of the registered voters ALREADY casting their votes, what we see in these numbers should also reflect what we will see in the general election results. This time, it may be early voting will foretell the final vote.

If this cycle did work out that way, it would be a new phenomena.  As noted in previous posts the Dems won the early voting in 2012, but the GOP won on election day. Obama held on to win, but by a razor thin margin (0.88%).

So should Trump/GOP supporters be worried the numbers above? Maybe.

The Dems jumped ahead because the GOP In-Person voting dropped way off:

2016 FL Early Vote By Day 11_07

It is a little worrisome that the GOP vote share plummeted over the weekend, but it did the same thing last weekend. We will see if GOP is losing steam or the Democrats cannibalized their election day voters for Early Voting. Note that the Independent vote trended more like the Democrats. All In-Person voting dropped in Sunday (as did the Mail-In tallies given that the US Post Office is off Sunday).

The Florida POTUS race is down to what the Independents will do tomorrow. They represent 1,237,395 votes already (19.3% of the total). If Trump wins this group by 1%, he will garner 12,373 more votes in Early Voting – not enough to offset the Dem ballot lead (assuming the GOP and DEMs fight to a draw by their percentages). However, if Trump  is ahead 10% with Independents, that is 123,735 more votes and he will win.

To be honest, no one knows which way Florida will go. What I do know is the Dem ballot lead will shrink a bit by tomorrow, when the Mail-In tallies come back.  By how much, no one knows.

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6 responses so far

6 Responses to “FL Early Voting 11_07_16: GOP Voting Drops Off, But Independents Continue Strong”

  1. MarkN says:

    The current data would suggest Trump +1. However, with a turnout of over 3 million on election day (one poll I saw had Trump +16 for those voting on election day), it may turn out to be more than Trump by 100,000 votes.

  2. MarkN says:

    Meanwhile, in Colorado, the GOP has overtaken the Dems in returned ballots.

  3. MarkN says:

    Colorado is at 72% of 2012’s turnout.

  4. MarkN says:

    I’m sorry AJ, I’m monopolizing your blog.

  5. AJStrata says:


    Comments welcomed!!

  6. […] than Romney (same data I have been using for weeks now). I linked to the alarm in an update to my latest Florida Early Voting post this […]