Nov 06 2016

FL Early Voting 11_06_16: Dems Have Great Saturday, Does Not Move Overall Numbers

Published by at 11:38 am under 2016 Elections,All General Discussions

As usual, the source for this data is here.

The Democrats had a great Saturday, mostly because the GOP In-Person vote dropped off significantly, not due to a major shift in Dem performance. The good news for Trump is the Unaffiliated (Independent) voters maintained their pace, which helped keep the overall numbers locked in.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_06

As has been the case for nearly a week now, the GOP and Democrats are in a dead heat in terms of percentage of total ballots cast in early voting. The Democrats lead by 32,626 ballots submitted.  And while that is a big number, it is a tiny percentage of the 6,152,099 ballots cast. Here are the percentages of ballots cast by party:

  • GOP 39.1%
  • DEM 39.6%
  • Other 21.4%

BTW: any poll that deviates much from this actual voter turnout data in their internal turnout model is probably going to miss the mark in Florida.  Just saying.

Back in 2012, the breakout of voters by party (per this comment) was 35D-33R-33I. So what we see in 2016 is that Hillary Clinton is performing well below Obama’s 2012 benchmark. In addition, in 2012 the total number of early votes was 4.3 million. This year in Florida early vote total has hit 6.15 million – and is still climbing. That means the voter turnout in the early voting is up 43%!

How do pollsters model that kind of intensity – which is clearly across the board since the Dems are just barely keeping even?

Since the GOP is holding it close

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, unlike 2012 where the Dems had a 43-40% lead in early voting, that indicates their turnout is on par with everything the Democrats have done.  The cumulative effect of the GOP’s early lead means they can easily weather one bad day, which they did.

When we look at the day-by-day vote tallies, we see how the GOP ballots dropped off for In-Person voting on Saturday. I decided to add Independents (Unaffiliated) to see how they were doing, and they DID NOT drop off on Saturday. Dems and Indies were pretty much even Saturday and Friday.

2016 FL Early Vote By Day 11_06_v2

Today is the last day of In-Person voting. It would take a massive change in voter turnout today to move the bottom line numbers. The fact the Independents are showing some late breaking strength tells me Florida looks better for Trump than Hillary.

If tradition holds true, the GOP candidate will take the vote on election day. So without any significant buffer built up in the early voting, it is Hillary who has the hill to climb to victory.

7 responses so far

7 Responses to “FL Early Voting 11_06_16: Dems Have Great Saturday, Does Not Move Overall Numbers”

  1. pantone1987 says:

    Are you going to do an analysis of Nevada’s early voting?

  2. oneal lane says:


    Will you boil the entire election down for us. I mean what are Trumps chances?


  3. AJStrata says:

    Nevada, probably not – just ran out of time!

  4. AJStrata says:

    OL, I will give attempt to “boil it down” later tonight or Tuesday AM. But to be honest – no one knows!

  5. oneal lane says:

    Thanks AJ

    Yes, I guess no-one knows, it looks very tight with Clinton having the edge.

    Mostly I feel sick thinking she could win.


  6. AJStrata says:

    I am amazed Trump is keeping it this close. And remember, the day of the Brexit vote polls had “stay” ahead, only to lose. A shift of 5% – all because of turnout model issues

  7. […] As I noted in a post yesterday, this year the turnout for a candidate is not driven by party ID but by education/economic level. This has turned the normal GOP-DEM dynamics on its head: […]