Oct 13 2016

Trump Has The Political Elites Scared Sh*tless

Published by at 2:55 pm under All General Discussions

I have to admit I don’t think I have ever seen the Political Industrial Complex* (PIC)  and its “elitist” denizens in such tizzy as they are now.  Trump has them rattled – badly.

I know the media portion of the PIC likes to claim “Trump” is dragging this election into the gutter, but it is clearly the media who are slinging all the mud.  Looks like endless wild and vulgar claims against Trump until election day.

Which will fall on death ears on Main Street. The problem with yelling “fire” over and over (and over) again is people just tune you out. They can see your lips move, but they cannot hear (or care) what you are saying.

The PIC News Media as achieved full meltdown and brand destruction.

The silver lining in all this is we should see a total collapse of the old guard media outlets and fresh new blood rolling in to take their place in the 4th estate.

What Wikileaks has exposed this past week: the denizen’s of the PIC are congenital liars.  By definition, to be successful in modern politics means you have to be a consummate liar. Hillary admitted as much when she opined about her public face and private (inside the PIC) face. Clearly, Hillary and her ilk (think Paul Ryan) are all “two faced”:

Simple Definition of two–faced: not honest or sincere : saying different things to different people in order to get their approval instead of speaking and behaving honestly

Sounds just like Hillary and the rest of the PIC.


BTW, there is a good wikileaks email to John Podesta confirming Clinton’s penchant for lying:

Beyond this Hillary should stop attacking Bernie, especially when she says things that are untrue, which candidly she often does.

What has the denizens of the PIC so freaked out is the fact that an outsider has a very good chance to not only invade their world, but come in at its apex and have the ability to rule over them! But the more they freak, out the more the voters realize electing Trump could actually change America’s trajectory!

Some interesting numbers from PA show a surprising shift from the Democrat Party to the GOP:

Nearly 100,000 Pennsylvania Democrats have switched to Republican since the beginning of the year.

What’s more: The Pennsylvania Republican party says more than 240-thousand new voters have joined the party since last November.

The state Republican party says that the surge in Republican registrations is nearly twice the number of newly registered Republicans compared to both the 2008 and 2012 numbers combined.

I think that state may be in play – no matter what the PIC’s polls show.

From FL we also see some interesting indicators from early voting:

FL Early Vote 10_13_16

This is as of this morning and shows Rep voters returning more votes than Dems (42-40%). For comparison let’s look back to 2012 and Obama’s reelection:


Votes: 4.3 million

Democrats: 43 percent

Republicans: 40 percent

So the GOP is outperforming 2012 by 5% points! But somehow the polls show something very different?  RCP has Florida right now with Clinton up 3.2% (46.6%-43.4%) in a two way race (I know the 3rd party candidate numbers will evaporate to near nothing come election day, as they usually do). Another disconnect between hard data and polls (estimates).

It has been stated all election season long that the polls are full of modeling uncertainty that is very likely beyond their statistical Margin of Error (MoE).  The turn out models pollsters use to guess (and this year it is really going to be a guess) which demographics come out to vote are the reason the numbers keep bouncing around so much. No one knows what they voter turn out will look like. So the facts on the ground look to be trending opposite to the polls.

This, BTW, happened with Brexit were the final day polls were completely wrong.

Which brings me to an old blogging colleague, and a post where I think he has it all backwards. Ed Morrissey posted on October 11 about the Morning Consult poll which had come out post Trump Tape and Debate:

Prior to both the tape and the debate, Hillary led Trump 42/36 in the four-way race, and by seven points head-to-head, 46/39. The differences between the two polls are all in the margin of error, but in both races, Trump actually edged upward from last week.

What does that all mean? Taken together, it suggests that Trump is close to a ceiling of support. He’s not dropping down after the tape (and debate), but he doesn’t have much room to add voters now.

OK, that is a shaky conclusion to come to.  Most of this year it has been Hillary Clinton who has been bumping her head against a ceiling, that being 43-46%. This is trigger point for any incumbent.  And while Hillary is not the “incumbent”, she is running for Obama’s 3rd term, so slavery to the definition of “incumbent” is not warranted.

If incumbents get stuck in this range they nearly always lose. Yes, she has been there in the 4 way races with 15% going to the “also ran’s”, but she is in this range also in the 2 way polls.  Only recently did we see some polls where she had a blip above this level. In the long term RCP numbers Clinton has bounced between 44-48% since April of this year (when she last saw 50%). It is Trump who is on the polling roller coaster (unless you look at the LA Times daily tracking pool which has a non-traditional turn out model and has been damn steady for Trump).

Clinton is going to loose ground with all these leaks of Media collusion and bad mouthing Main Street from the PIC”s ivory towers of power. The media is being tuned out in terms of Trump smears.  Their big “Sleaze Guns” are now shooting blanks.  To continue shooting will only confirm the media is in the tank for Hillary and the powers that be.

Which means if you as a voter feel we need to clean out DC and get on a better track, you are not going to listen to the talking heads anymore because they are the propaganda arm of what’s wrong in America. And the more this propaganda arm attacks Trump, the more these “new track” voters are going to line up behind him.

Why would they do otherwise?

The PIC smear campaign is going to blow up in their faces.

* The Political Industrial Complex encompasses all those elites whose livelihoods are predicated on central-control of resources and who determine who is allowed to succeed in society. It is a bipartisan exclusive club. It includes the Politicians and their career staffers. It includes crony donors and lobbyists who reap government windfalls and special treatment that average citizens cannot obtain. It includes the PIC industrial base of pollsters, consultants, etc. And it includes the pliant news media, whose success rest on access to those in power, and in return for access making sure no bad news will disrupt said power.

3 responses so far

3 Responses to “Trump Has The Political Elites Scared Sh*tless”

  1. Chikung69 says:

    I hope you are right AJ. I crunched the FL vote numbers as they have updated. Looking at the 3 largest counties Duval, Hillsborough and Miami-Dade, the drop offs between Requested/Voted already compared against 2012 Obama vs. Romney look like this:

    Democrat – Requested Ballot / Already Voted Early = (9%), (10%)
    Republican – Requested Ballot / Already Voted Early = (3%), (4%)
    Advantage: Trump

    Democrat – Requested Ballot / Already Voted Early = (8%), (12%)
    Republican – Requested Ballot / Already Voted Early = (9%), (8%)
    Advantage: Slight Trump

    Democrat – Requested Ballot / Already Voted Early = (16%), (19%)
    Republican – Requested Ballot / Already Voted Early = (2%), (4%)
    Advantage: HUGE Trump

    That positivity aside, I feel like the fix is in. Unless the Black Swan of Brexit happens. When Utah and Arizona are razor thin margins, that spells trouble in many other areas. I will keep hope alive.

    Love your posts btw, glad you are back from exile.

    Email me if you want my spreadsheet.

  2. AJStrata says:

    Chikung69 – good to be back. Funny, I was about to do post on those FL early ballots. Thanks for the data!

  3. AJStrata says:


    Good to be back. Was thinking of doing a post on the FL early voting – thanks for the update!