Jun 29 2006
Denial On The Right
Readers keep claiming there are no polls showing how small a minority the Tancredo Taunters represent in this country. Normally I would not do any homework for people (I have my own work to do), but in this one case I will oblige only to watch all the obvious denial and rationalizations and dismissals from the usual suspects. The question is how many people oppose a guest worker program and therefore would not want or allow any legislation to pass that includes one? Very few it turns out:
CA 3/06:”Two-thirds of Californians support a guest-worker plan, the poll found. Among registered voters, the majority was slightly smaller, at 60 percent, while among those not registered to vote — half of whom are noncitizens — support for the plan was higher, at 73 percent.”
National 04?06:”A new poll by Time magazine found 79 percent of the 1,004 adults surveyed by phone Wednesday and Thursday favor a guest-worker program that would allow undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States for a limited amount of time.”
AZ 04/05:”The other issue that found wide support in Arizona was President George W. Bush’s Guest Worker Program. Sixty-two percent of all registered voters support his plan and 29 percent do not support it.”
AZ 04/06:”Forty-three percent of the state’s voters support allowing the nearly 13 million people illegally in the United States to register here and to earn U.S. citizenship if they have been in the country for several years. Another 18 percent said these immigrants should be allowed to register in a guest worker program.” Note: 26% chose to deport them or make them criminals, see results near the bottom.
)3/06 National:With the immigration debate raging in Congress and immigration supporters spilling out into the streets, the latest TIME Poll finds a lopsided majority of the American public, 72%, favor a “guest worker” program in a head-to-head match-up over a House bill that would criminalize illegal immigration. Only 1 in 4 (25%) supports the more drastic House version that would make illegals felons, allowing no illegals into the country, with no guest worker provisions. “
Are there conflicting polls? Of course, depends on how vaque the question is. I chose polls that did not hide the core question behind vaque references that required ‘interpretation’ to determine the meaning. And there are more polls out there that support the contention Tancredo’s forces are 20-30% of the population. Just check these polls out. In fact, time shows the more Tancredo Taunts the more people abandon his hard line positions.
The most interesting poll is this one back in 2003, before the Tancredo mess poisoned the air with their overheated rhetoric. It showed what was possible:”In the first survey of its kind, most Mexican immigrants said they would participate in a temporary guest-worker program similar to the one proposed by President Bush, according to a poll by the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research organization in Washington, D.C. … According to the survey, nearly three-quarters of the 4,836 Mexican immigrants polled said they would enroll in a guest-worker program such as the one outlined by Bush.”
See what we could have done. 8 Million of the 12 million here would have stepped forward and come out into the open before the far right began mucking it all up with their calls for mass deportation. That would have really reduced the number of places Al Qaeda could have hidden. But not now.
Thanks for that, It finally totally destroys your 80-20 myth. you referred me to previous posts on your site on illegal immigration, well I read every single one of them and here is your only reference to an actual poll
Immigration: Legal And Illegal
*** Update: To point out where the line in the sand is, look at this poll:
_ Some 59 percent say they oppose allowing illegal immigrants to apply for
legal, temporary-worker status, an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found.
_ More than six in 10, 62 percent, say they oppose making it easier for
illegal immigrants to become citizens, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
Nine in 10 in that poll say they consider immigration to be a serious problem _
with 57 percent of those polled saying very serious.
_ Three-fourths say the United States is not doing enough along its borders
to keep illegal immigrants out, a Time Magazine poll found.
I am not with the 59% who are against guest workers,
nothing there supporting 80-20 and now from this, your latest post:
Two-thirds of Californians support a guest-worker plan, the poll found. Among registered voters, the majority was slightly smaller, at 60 percent,
not quite 80-20
and:
A new poll by Time magazine found 79 percent of the 1,004 adults surveyed by phone Wednesday and Thursday favor a guest-worker program that would allow undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States for a limited amount of time.â€
close: and
The other issue that found wide support in Arizona was President George W. Bush’s Guest Worker Program. Sixty-two percent of all registered voters support his plan and 29 percent do not support it.â€
a little shy on 80-20
and:â€Forty-three percent of the state’s voters support allowing the nearly 13 million people illegally in the United States to register here
even shy of 50-50 here?
and:
72%, favor a “guest worker†program in a head-to-head match-up over a House bill that would criminalize illegal immigration.
and it’s only this good compared to the house bill.
Have to laugh at what they said here, “criminalize illegal immigration” is it unusual to criminalize something that is illegal? them pollsters, gotta love em they know how to slant their questions to get desired result. Even that didn’t work here tho.
and:
“I chose polls that did not hide the core question behind vaque references that required ‘interpretation’ to determine the meaning. And there are more polls out there”
Really? As best I can interpret this info you supplied, there doesn’t seem to be one poll that even asked the question: Do you favor blanket amnesty for all illegals currently in the country?
All they asked was, do you favor a guest worker program? Actually I’m surprised the answer wasn’t 100% in favor of. The highest yes they got was only 79.
But I thought this was the question. ” Do you favor putting all the illegal immigrants in the US on a guest worker program and making them citizens? If less than 80% favor any kind of guest worker program, and that includes people that are outside the country trying to do it legally. Just how much support do you think you would get on the properly worded question which you imply has been polled, (” Do you favor putting all the illegal immigrants in the US on a guest worker program and making them citizens?”) I would put the result in the 1-5% yes range.
So your “Normally I would not do any homework for people (I have my own work to do), but in this one case I will oblige only to watch all the obvious denial and rationalizations and dismissals from the usual suspects.” was extremely useful to me, as I said it totally obliterated your constant insistance on the 80-20 polls as we now know where you pulled those numbers from.
Also I’ll say again, you have not linked me to any poll that supports your numbers, you said they are in your files on illegal immigration and I say they’re not.
So I hope you enjoy my ” obvious denial and rationalizations and dismissals ” as I think you yourself finally wiped out and have to face your ” obvious denial and rationalizations and dismissals ”
BELTWAY THINKING
AJ
the most interesting poll is this one back in 2003,
Acutally from ‘The survey was conducted from July 2004 to January 2005.”
And in the interest of truthfulness, it polled only illegal Mexican immigrants and less the 75% said they would participate in a guest worker program, and even less than that if it didn’t include a path to citizenship.
Man, AJ you got some good stuff here, think you might actually find and post something that supports “your” viewpoint?
FE: The 2nd Rasmussen poll I quoted on the last thread contained the following question:
Some people say it makes no sense to debate new rules for
immigration until we can control our borders and enforce
existing laws. Do you agree or disagree?
(To repeat, MA was lowest state at 58%)
Obviously, from your name, you agree. I hearby vindicate your position!!
I meant to add, if less than 75% of illegal Mexicans are in favor of guest worker program for illegal Mexicans, I wonder what the % of US citizens only, would be in favor of that same program?
just for the record, AJ I’ve been reading your blog for a long time, don’t really know how long but never commented because I’m almost always in agreement with what you say. Started posting when you started going astray on this immigration business. I don’t know what it is that headed you down the wrong direction, but I hope you find your lost road Map soon.
I recommend you go back and read your very first two posts on illegal immigrants about how bad the crime was in your neighborhood from the illegal immigrants. I can’t figure how you got from there to here.
Yes, you’ve always said if they committed a felony, deport forever, but now you favor the senate bill that would allow convicted felons that are not even here now to come in. Is that consistent?
I believe if you asked the question straight out:
Would you favor a path to citizenship for aliens that have been living here for 5 years without any criminal history provided they complete a 10 year probationary period, learn english, maintain a clean criminal record, and remain employed?
I believe the response would be an overwhelming “yes”.
The position of AZR and FE is simply one of punishment, spending billions of dollars, building huge bureaucracies, for a net result that would likely do more harm to the country than good. I really don’t understand it. I can see no benefits and nothing but costs.
AZ:
Any poll that uses the phrase ‘Some people say’ is a push poll, it is an old trick. And the Rasmussen poll was an outlier.
Gallup did a poll [it is on their site] shortly before Bush’s speech which put the number of people who want to see mass deportation of all illegals at 21%. Two thirds supported a plan that included a guest worker program and about 60% supported a path to citizenship. If you don’t believe me look it up.
And the RNC poll which was noted on both Big Lizards and Captains Quarters put the numbers of people who support Bush’s plan at levels over 68% on some aspects of the plan and higher than that on others.
CNN put the approval of Bush’s speech on immigration at 79%.
I don’t think people respond well to the hystrionics. I was further to right on this two years ago than I am now. I just do not trust Tacred and if he is the cheer leader for this campaign, count me out.
We think that the people over all are as into the details as we are. They are not. They just want solutions, they don’t expect anything to happen all that fast but the endless bickering gets tiresome because it looks as if people are trying to use this as a poltical stunt.
A friend of mine told me a year ago that nothing would happen on immigration. He said this was just posturing and preening for the election and in the end the Republicans would not do anything constructive about it. I saw him the other day and you know what he said?
I told you so.
I do think that AJ’s numbers are right however, because the hardliners not only do not support a guest worker program or a path to citizenship they do support punsihing everyone on the grounds that anything less is unprincipled.
That is where the 80/20 comes in. Consistently polls show that a vast majority of people do not want to see millions of people driven out of the country. Remember Katrina? Look what it was like to move 200,000 people who were somewhere they did not want to be, imagine moving 10 million people somewhere they don’t want to go. I think the idea of what that could turn into just turns people off.
CPATCH: I agree totally with your first paragraph. And with your next to the last sentance. You truly have no clue! You think the Senate bill REDUCES bureaucracies and costs????
And Terry: I agree with almost every thing you say (at least here). And I’m even on your side–just a little more optomistic.
Jeepers, you guys are hooked on us “far Righters” kicking everyone out of the Country. Get off it. I have heard no mention of anyone posting here kicking out 20 million Brown People.
Please, set up a new strawman already.
BTW, the National Guard being deployed to the Border? Um, less then a thousand by the end of June. Goal 2,500.
Yeah, we take securing that Border real seriously. Damn far Righters running this Country, huh?
TERRYE did you, are did you not, read AJ’s post above? He doesn’t come close to “AJ’s numbers are right ” himself, so why would you believe them. If he believed the 80-20(his numbers) he would provide a link to them. So why do you support him in something he himself admitted in his posting above he can’t even support.
You said:
I do think that AJ’s numbers are right however, because the hardliners not only do not support a guest worker program or a path to citizenship they do support punsihing everyone on the grounds that anything less is unprincipled.
That is where the 80/20 comes in. Consistently polls show that a vast majority of people do not want to see millions of people driven out of the country. Remember Katrina? Look what it was like to move 200,000 people who were somewhere they did not want to be, imagine moving 10 million people somewhere they don’t want to go. I think the idea of what that could turn into just turns people off.
“That is where the 80/20 comes in” What? From where? They call that ‘out of thin air’ down here.
Left by Terrye
Wow TERRYE this posting of your’s was terribly impressive, could you hurry up and write another one.
CROSSPATCH since you wrote:
“The position of AZR and FE is simply one of punishment,”
It confirms my suspicion that you don’t actually read what people write. Where have I ever advocated “punishing” anyone. Here is my well known position as I’ve stated many times on this site.
“Secure the border 100% and on the day that it is certified 100% secure give unconditional citizenship(as the senate bill does) to everyone that is in the country at that time”
Now which part of that is the “punishment”?
Try to be a least in the same room with honesty when you write.
Did anyone hear a comment yesterday (Tony Snow maybe?) that the President has already committed more money to enforcement than is included in either bill? That many more agents are coming–just takes a long time ‘in the pipe’. If so, great news!
again, no one here has called for punishment–just enforcement of existing laws.
and Senate members talking about phased implementation. Compromise, folk! Don’t give up the ship.
FE,
If your whole agrument is 79-21 is not 80-20, this is the last time I will waste a second responding to your comments. Enjoy the site and I hope you have a good life, but that first comment says it all.
Later dude.
The laugher in all this is those ‘hard liners’ who say ‘security first’ and then ran away from any legislation on the border this year. And they wonder why people are not taking them serious??? Second best laugher: the claim they did not drop the ball on security because there was a guest worker program in the mix!! Never happened. Third laugher: there was never a cry for deportation – we were just going to fill up our prisons and pay for the illegal immigrants to rot in jail and pay to support their families income?? Credibility is built upon being consistent and true to past statements. Not in changing uncomfortable histories.
AJ
If your whole agrument is 79-21 is not 80-20,
My whole argument is, you have been unable to provide any link that show any support for your position. The only poll you cite at all at best is 40% support for a position (which is not really your position) and only then if it is only illegal Mexicans being polled.
It is not my fault that you can’t cite credible numbers to support your argument.
I’m beginning to think you have set up a brainwashing test.
The premise being. Everybody knows I am conservative, so I will take the most liberal position I can find on an issue and see how many people I can convince. So far you have convinced 2, Terrye and Crosspatch. I see no body else buying your argument. I do see one hell of a lot that post serious disagreement with you on this issue. I certainly am not the only one. I’d say it’s about 80-20 against you on this.
I do seem to be the only one that actually asks for you to substantiate your claims, which you never do, so yeah, I can see why you would have a problem with not wanting to respond to my comments.
I do enjoy the site.
The laugher in all this is those ‘hard liners’(who are these’mysterious’ people?
who say ’security first’ and then ran away from any legislation on the border this year.(If and when ANYTHING that supports border security comes along, it’ll get a LOT of support, wonder if we will ever see any?)
And they wonder why people are not taking them serious???(Jokes, the Senate bill, aren’t meant to be taken seriously, are they?)
Second best laugher: the claim they did not drop the ball on security(Yeah, we’re all still rolling around the floor on this one) because there was a guest worker program in the mix!!(which depended entirely on unconditional amnesty and citizenship being included) Never happened.(Absolutely correct) Third laugher: there was never a cry for deportation(You are correct sir, there wasn’t) – we were just going to fill up our prisons(well actually that wasn’t in there either, the strategy there was, look the other way) and pay for the illegal immigrants to rot in jail and pay to support their families income?? (you’re making this up as you go along, right?) Credibility is built upon being consistent and true to past statements. (Ah Yess, as I’ve pointed out. you’ve always been conservative)Not in changing uncomfortable histories( okay, you pointed that out, I didn’t)
FE:
The 80/20 comes in because most hardliners want to throw all these people out of the country. That is the 20%. There is a large variation beyond that.
You guys seem to think there are only two ways to look at this, there are not. Not all conservatives even want a fence, some of them think it is a waste of money. I know a life long Republican who thinks PEW is exaggerating the numbers of illegals just to make trouble and that more people on the border and a more efficient means to process and deport will in time take care of the problem. Where would he fit?
My point is that if you take the position that illegal entry should be a felony and all these folks rounded up and kicked out of the country then you will fall in the 20 of the 80/20.
BTW from gallup:
Bush’s Speech on Immigration Closely Follows Public Opinion (Page 1)
President Bush’s primetime immigration speech on Monday night — intentionally or not — closely mirrored what public opinion research shows is the basic structure of the public’s views on the issue of immigration. Americans broadly favor most of the basic elements included in Bush’s immigration plan, suggesting there will be little controversy about his recommendations from the public’s perspective.
Matthew Dowd, GOP poller extraordinaire, writes that the ultra-hardline conservatives who insist that the American people demand “enforcement only” and hate the “amnesty” of the Senate bill have it exactly backwards. In fact:
Dowd’s memo says that an internal RNC poll conducted by Jan Van Louhuzen finds that “overwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law.”
More, from the RNC internal poll: “When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters.”
Also: “Voters don’t consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty.”
The above quote came from Big Lizards in his post about the RNC poll. Note the reference to the 80%.
79% had a positive reaction to Bush’s comprehensive immigration reform speech. It was noted by the polster that more Republicans watched the speech than Democrats so the reviews might be a little to the right:
CNN Poll