Jun 19 2006

Will US Intercept NK Missile?

Published by at 1:38 pm under All General Discussions

The media wants to know if America will attempt to take out a North Korean missile if it is test launched in the near future.  The answer is not obvious, but my initial speculation is we would not do so for a variety of reasons.

Mainly, we will not tip our hand regarding our capabilities unless we see a real threat.  If there is an effort to take it out it must succeed or else it will send a bad signal to the world: we are not as protected as some fear.

Even if we are as protected as some fear and many of us hope, there is a risk of an anomaly which could give the exact same wrong impression.  There is no way to discern a fluke mishap with a flawed defense system.  Wrong impressions can result in bad decisions by our enemies.  Just ask Saddam regarding Kuwait.
If we do take out the missile then I would be truly concerned about North Korea and what it is trying to do.  The US has allowed many nations to test and fly rockets that could easily carry a warhead to our shores.  China and the USSR have long had the know-how to deposit a payload on our door step.  A change in attitude would send a signal as well.  One would have to wonder why there was a sudden change in the US approach to missile tests from past practices.

8 responses so far

8 Responses to “Will US Intercept NK Missile?”

  1. crosspatch says:

    I believe we see a major difference between Russia/China and countries like PRNK/Iran and this is the reason for our policy difference. The MAIN reason we would get so upset is the NK signed a missile test ban treaty. Should they test this missile, it would be but one more broken treaty to add to the heap.

    It would comvey clearly that North Korea does not take negotiations, treaties, and agreements seriously. It says that they will agree to anything to get what they want at the moment and then do what they want to do anyway, agreement notwithstanding. So it calls into question the entire concept of negotiating with North Korea. If they test this missile, they are pretty much putting to an end the idea that anyone will take them seriously in any kind of future agreement. We gave them the benefit of the boubt when they broke the Carter/Clinton agreement and went to the 6 party talks. If they test this missile, they would be saying that there is no point to any further talks.

  2. What should we do about the North Korean ICBM test?…

    As I’m sure you must know North Korea plans to test fire a missile thought to be able to strike the continental United States:
    WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea on Monday it will face consequences if it test-fire…

  3. N. Korea Warned…

    For a while after I first heard this I thought it was the usual blustering and political machinations, you know the kind, the saber-rattling moves that most people of adult age have heard time and again.
    But then it struck me, if N. Korea is supposedly…

  4. crosspatch says:

    I heard another angle from, I believe, Tony Snow. The reasoning goes that there are procedures for announcing a missile test. This includes releasing details of the test profile, a demarcation of intended impact area so shipping can move clear of the area, etc. In this case, there has been no formal process in declaring a test. North Korea hasn’t acknowledged even readying a missile at all.

    The problem comes when you have a missile of the potential range that we believe this one has without any of the paperwork being filed, there is a real risk of someone getting hurt, and you can’t be sure if it is a test or an attack. If the missile heads toward Hawaii or Anchorage, is that part of the flight plan? Is the missile off course? Is that the intended flight path? Where is the desired impact area? Are there ships in the way?

    In other words, North Korea isn’t following the procedures that were put into place to make tests less threatening and less likely to accidently get someone killed. As a result, we can not be sure that we or one of our friends isn’t about to be attacked.

    It’s irresponsible.

  5. MerlinOS2 says:

    One blog I watch that has been fairly accurate in the past has an interesting take on this situation.


  6. MerlinOS2 says:

    They just posted a followup on the above post


  7. MerlinOS2 says:

    For a looksee at the launch site peruse this link


  8. Raise the Shields…

    I guess we’re going to find out whether the propeller heads and generals who fought for, designed, and prepared the missile defense systems are able to deliver on their promises….