Aug 29 2013

What Does Egypt’s Unrest Signal?

Published by at 10:08 am under All General Discussions,Bin Laden/GWOT,Syria

Before I address¬† the issues in Syria and America’s foolish war drums, I want to focus back on the spark that started much of the unrest and turmoil in the Arab/Muslim world: Egypt.

The turmoil in Egypt has been intriguing me for some time, mainly because it looks a lot like the pivotal event many outside the Muslim world have been waiting for. It looks like Egypt is will be where moderate Muslims are making a stand against the Islamo Fascists. I understand there has been a lot of politicizing and finger pointing, but in reality Egypt’s turmoil looks to be a huge turning point, and one for which the West needs to keep a low profile.

There has been a lot of reporting on the events in Egypt, but let me select just one to illustrate the opportunity we may be seeing:

The Egyptian government has had to react fast to events over the last few days and it now appears they had no prior strategy about what to do with the Muslim Brotherhood as an organisation at this stage.

Initially their position was that they welcomed dialogue with the Brotherhood and it was conceivable that in time they could even be allowed back into government, as long as they did not have blood on their hands.

But under pressure from the Egyptian media, this position appears to have hardened. Foreign intervention has complicated the situation further, as any sign of leniency on the part of the government is now seen as caving in.

In recent days the government has indicated the Brotherhood will be banned and on Monday the Egyptian authorities were quoted as saying the Freedom and Justice Party – the political wing of the Brotherhood – will have its licence to operate as a political party revoked, which in effect will dissolve it.

Such a ban would satisfy many Egyptians who view the Brotherhood as a fascist terrorist organisation. It would also force the Brotherhood back underground, where it used to be.

Emphasis mine.  The article goes on to claim this may not be a good idea, but from where I sit it would be a very positive result.

How many times have the West and Non-Muslim world wanted to see moderate Muslims stand up to the radical Islamo Fascists? How many pundits have lamented how moderates have allowed the radicals to over run the Muslim religion?

So now when we see Egypt stand up to the Islamo Fascists, we waste this opportunity with finger pointing and political opportunism?

When it comes to Egypt, the West (and America’s political industrial class) should shut up and show unity and support. They shouldn’t focus on the imperfections of the moment, but look at the sea change we could be witnessing.

This is not much different from when the Soviet Union collapsed. It took time for the world to stop hyperventilating and wringing hands before they realized a momentous event was upon them.

Syria could be the diversion that could derail Egypts fight against the Islamo Fascists. Or it could be the next domino to fall. All I know is Western intervention is not a good idea at this point. Let the Muslims work out which segment will take the lead into the future. It may be bloody and messy, but it could also be very good and needed. America’s revolution for Independence was no less bloody, yet look at what it brought to humanity?

Before we fall into the loose-loose game of political gotcha, maybe we should stand back and unify our support for the moderate Egyptians.

For a good assessment on Syria, this Hot Air article sums up many of my views quite nicely.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “What Does Egypt’s Unrest Signal?”

  1. WWS says:

    Islamo-fascists? The key to the region is that they are ALL Islamo-fascists! And I mean that quite literally. It’s just that some of the fascists are bug-nutz crazy and want to burn the world down for Mohammed, while the more comfortable fascists (ie, the men we call Generals) are quite willing to work with us and even leave us alone, as long as we don’t do anything stupid to interfere with their grip on power. You know, like giving airy-fairy “democracy” speeches in Cairo, that kind of thing.

    The Egyptian situation has had almost nothing to do with Islam, and everything to do with Power. Namely, that the Egyptian Military has been the ultimate source of Power in that nation for over 60 years now, and they finally got scared that Morsi was going to try and pull an Erdogan and take some of that power away from them. They reacted as soon as they were sure that the MoBros had finally destroyed their public credibility. And for the record, I agree that banning the MoBro’s would be a good move. There’s enough bad stuff going on over there, the region needs a general purge of extremists before it’s ever going to calm down.

    but that doesn’t mean that the New Rulers are really anything to be proud of.

    For those unaware, you should know that the Egyptian Army, like most 3rd world militaries, is a vast commercial outfit in control of a huge section of Egypt’s economy, and every military official above the rank of Colonel becomes very, very rich from his office. Their primary motivator, above religion, above “duty to the country”, is ensuring that they and their families remain very, very rich, and to do that you have to stay in control.

    So in western terms, this was analagous to two very nasty gangs, both made up of Islamists, who got into a fight over control of a limited piece of turf. The gang with the most guns and the greatest willingness to use them won – not really a surprise. And not a surprise to imagine that they will continue to use those tools to hang onto power for the forseeable future.

    The part that sticks in everyone’s craw is having to admit that a neo-fascist military dictatorship is the best government we can hope for out of the crazed mess that is Egypt, and that it behooves us to continue supporting them – we do make a nice profit from all the weapons we sell to them, after all. And they will be very reluctant to ever start a war with Israel – they know how that turned out for Nasser in 1967, and people with a lot of assets to protect are quite risk-adverse by nature. (on the other hand, crazy poor idealogues who own nothing but the robes on their backs and the rags on their heads will start a war at the drop of a hat. What have they got to lose?)

    There could even be some real long term good out of it – Libya is a mess, with no hope of getting a functioning government back together anytime soon, and Libya has oil. Egypt needs oil. Sounds like a nice “humanitarian mission” for the Egyptian military to start planning, and if any of those Libyan tribesmen are in the way, well just call them Al Qaeda or MoBro’s and nobody who matters is going to complain too much when those guys just aren’t around anymore.

    Dead bedouins tell no tales.

  2. Redteam says:

    WWS, very good assessment. There are no winners for the US in Egypt or in Syria. you said: ” The key to the region is that they are ALL Islamo-fascists! ” So true, but it seems at least the ones that are most favorable to the US are the one’s presently in the driver’s seat.
    While I think it’s not a good thing for civilians to be killed as a by product of militarism, at least it appears to be the civilians associated with the very worst side, al queda. It will not serve the US interests to provide an Air Force for them against the lesser violence prone Syrians in control.