Apr 30 2013

IPCC’s Epic Fail

Published by at 1:50 pm under All General Discussions,Global Warming

The Gore-effect is in full force this spring. If you are not aware of what the Gore-effect is, it is Mother Nature’s way of telling everyone to ignore the big blow-hard behind the green curtain (check it out, it really was green!]:

The Toronto based national newspaper Globe and Mail defined the term in 2007 quoting a user’s submission to the online Urban Dictionary website as “the phenomenon that leads to unseasonably cold temperatures, driving rain, hail, or snow whenever Al Gore visits an area to discuss global warming.”

This spring, Mother Nature seems to be completely fed up with Gore, The Hockey Team and the IPCC because she has been sending a frigid reminder of how wrong the IPCC predictions were about global climate. This year the US is experiencing the second coldest spring since we have been keeping temperature records. Here is the composite DATA RECORD (not some theoretical model output promoted by the Green CAGW crowd).

More here on the fact the globe is not warming, at least not our part of the Northern Hemisphere (which is a big portion of the globe):

Record cold and snow has been reported in dozens of cities, with the worst of the chill in the Rockies, upper Midwest and northern Plains. Several baseball games have been snowed out in both Denver and Minneapolis.

Cities such as Rapid City, S.D.; Duluth, Minn.; and Boulder, Colo., have all endured their snowiest month ever recorded. (In all three locations, weather records go back more than 100 years.) In fact, more than 1,100 snowfall records and 3,400 cold records have been set across the nation so far in April, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

And more here as well:

Last month was a chilly one, ranking as the second-coldest March in the continental United States since 2000, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The average temperature across the United States this March was also 13 degrees Fahrenheit (7.2 degrees Celsius) lower than in March 2012, and a late-winter blizzard broke snowfall records in many areas.

So, why has it been so cold?

We actually know very little about the global climate, or how the oceans, sun, Earth’s orbit and our Solar Systems’ path through the galactic structures of the Milky Way impact it.  The arrogance behind the IPCC science is monumental.

What I do know is measuring tree rings is not going to give us the answer to how climate works over tens of thousands of years. The myriad of statistical games played by those biased gatekeepers who used to run the IPCC blinders (where contrary science was not allowed to make an appearance in the ‘peer reviewed’ literature) is what created hockey sticks from cherry-picked data. It was an interesting, if not self-deceiving, attempt at science that actually showed how little we can derive about historical climates from proxies, where temperature is a minor signal (if even that).

To illustrate, please look at the following Hockey Stick graph with a focus on the blade:

I want to draw attention to how the uncertainty (grey haze in the background) collapses around the modern period. The blue is the proxy record, the red is modern temp records stuck on as if it is one coherent data set. Well it isn’t. The reason the uncertainty around the modern temp records slims down to nearly nothing is this is the so called ‘calibration period’.  This is where the cherry pickers ply their trade, and select only proxy data that mimics the red temperature data. This means proxy data which doesn’t follow temperature is filtered out.

OK, a elf deluding act if there ever was one. But the real ‘crime’ came when the scientists let the cherry-picked tree ring proxies run beyond the calibration period, to free-wheel with nature. No more cherry-picker filter, just proxy and reality.

And what happened was that nature went her merry way.  What we had was a divergence!

The tree rings started to show a massive cooling, while the selected thermometers (and their special, IPCC green adjustments) went warmer. Who knows which is right, but one thing is for sure, they did not agree anymore. When the tree rings diverged, they expanded the error bars on the historic stick portion of the graph, meaning today’s temps would not be any different from past temps. They did this because it meant the temperature signal was being drowned out by other factors (such as moisture, nutrients and disease).

This divergence can be seen in what Steve McIntyre exposed when he discovered that the diverging tree ring data had been deleted from the hockey stick graph [click to enlarge]:

 Figure 3. Re-stated Mann et al (EOS 2003) Figure 1 showing the decline.

Had Mann and his 13 co-authors shown the Briffa reconstruction, without hiding the decline, one feels that von Storch (and others) might have given more consideration to Soon et al’s criticism of the serious problem arising from the large-population failure of tree ring widths and density to track temperature.

See that yellowish-orange line dropping down at the end? That is the missing data. Steve McIntyre has a very polite and low key way of saying, if all the data was made public, the IPCC’s case about recent, unprecedented global warming would have collapsed.

This charade was exposed years ago, and still the IPCC and its media puppets expound the myth of global warming. Mother Nature seems to be taking offense, as she seems hell bent on applying the Gore Effect for real:

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.

What we are seeing is the Epic Failure of a bunch of alarmists who used shoddy and questionable means to convince the world that the sky was falling. In other worlds, we are witnessing the exposure of one of the biggest Chicken Little scams seen in quite some time.

One response so far

One Response to “IPCC’s Epic Fail”

  1. Dc says:

    AJ…now don’t let those facts get in the way of orthodoxy. It’s NOT cooler. And if it “is” cooler where “YOU” live…then it’s because of warming somewhere else.