Nov 04 2012

Obama Still Sinking, Momentum Is Towards Romney Clear

Published by at 10:35 am under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

Let me pose a few questions to those desperately trying not to see the momentum shift to Romney here in the final days of the 2012 election cycle.

Is Florida turning redder or bluer?

Is Virginia or North Carolina turning deep blue and moving out of Romney’s reach?

Is Missouri once again within Obama’s reach as it was in 2008 when McCain barely eked out a win?

What about predictably-blue Pennsylvania?

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week.

Note: President Obama is stuck well below 50% at 47%, and in one key county Obama won by 17% it is now tied.

What about New Hampshire, is it slipping out of anyone’s reach today:

With just three days before the election, a new WMUR Granite State Poll shows the presidential race is a dead heat in New Hampshire.

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are each expected to get 47 percent of the votes, according to the poll

Note: President Obama again is stuck well below 50% at 47%.

What about Iowa, is President Obama moving out or stuck:

Obama is up 5 percentage points in Iowa, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 42 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, although the results also contain signs of hope for Romney, political strategists said.

Note: Obama again is stuck well below 50% at 47%.

Finally what about Minnesota – a state that has not been red for decades.

The latest from FMWB shows a neck-and-neck race in Michigan with Mitt Romney nosing out to a one point lead (really 0.6), 47 to 46 with 2% Undecided.

Let’s just call it 47-47, since I don’t buy fractions-of-a-percent precision in poll numbers. Not to mention troubles for the President brewing in Wisconsin and Michigan and Oregon. Still seeing that 47% ceiling for the President

Yes, there are D+Gazillion polls out there showing more enthusiasm for President Obaama this cycle than in 2008, creating narrow (if fictional) Obama leads. But these polls are so heavily skewed because of the big secret – defecting Democrats. In 2010 center-left Democrats and independents bolted the Dems and led the GOP to the largest mid term win living memory. We are not in a D+8 election cycle, more like R+4 (which also would be historic, like 2010).

The best reporting on this I have seen is up at RCP today:

Two years after suffering a historic shellacking in the 2010 midterm election, Democrats astonishingly have ignored Main Street Americans’ unhappiness.

That 2010 ejection from the U.S. House, and from state legislatures and governors’ offices across the country, didn’t happen inside the Washington Beltway world.

It didn’t reflect the Democrats’ or the media’s conventional wisdom or voter-turnout models. So it just wasn’t part of their reality.

These Main Street Democrats in seven battleground states supported Obama in 2008. Now they are disappointed by his broken pledges: Where is the promised bipartisanship? How could health-care reform become such a mess? What direction is the country going in?

In order to offset losing independents AND a good chunk of Democrats one has to push the turnout models to D+Infinity (and beyond!)

Anyone who thinks the 2010 insurgent voter was satiated after the last two years, they truly live in their own private Idaho. These voters wanted a change in direction from the Obama-Reid-Pelosi disaster. They did not get that change. Now they will take action again, and send the signal again. This time, they will change out the management.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “Obama Still Sinking, Momentum Is Towards Romney Clear”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    Chris Wallace pointed out to Richard Beeson the totals of early vote turnout with the 600,000 advantage to the Democrats. 4.6 million Democrats to 4.1 million Republicans plus something for independents.

    I think that’s misleading. Most of the early vote turnout advantage could be in the heavy blue states but very close in the swing states.

    The total number of early vote turnout is a small percentage of the total population that voted in 2008.

    Will we expect high turnout Tuesday?

  2. Wilbur Post says:

    Quoth the raven, “It’s 1980 once more….”