May 24 2012

Connecting Dots

Published by at 7:50 am under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

Or assessing recent polling data. A recent poll in a key battlegr0und state shows clear danger for Obama’s re-elect:

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Romney leading the president 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, a notable shift from a tie in Quinnipiac’s last poll of the state in early May, which showed them effectively tied.

That is not even among ‘likely’ voters, and Obama is already in the dead zone of 41%. Then there were those primary votes in the south, where Obama lost 40% of his own party:

President Obama lost more than 40 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s Arkansas and Kentucky Democratic primaries, despite little-to-no opposition.

Obama lost 42 percent of the vote to the “uncommitted” option in Kentucky and more than 40 percent to little-known attorney John Wolfe in Arkansas — the latest example of the incumbent president failing to win significant shares of votes in uncompetitive contests.

But it’s not the first time the president has taken less than 60 percent of the vote in a primary this year.

He ceded 41 percent of the vote in West Virginia to an incarcerated man in Texas named Keith Judd, and in Oklahoma, Obama lost several counties and won just 57 percent of the vote.

When your own party doesn’t want you, you will not win the general election. Sort of one of those obvious indicators the news media wants to ignore because it pains them so much.

At Real Clear Politics Romney is at 44% (43.8 if you are into mythical precision) and Obama is at 46% (or 45.5). This is a statistical tie, but it really is much worse than that. Most polls are still sampling voters or adults, not likely voters. Of the three sampling likely voters the average is Romney  46% and Obama 44%. Given that undecideds rarely break for the incumbent, this indicates Obama is heading for a bad election. He is sitting at 45% – which for an incumbent means near certain defeat.

I doubt I will be posting much on polls over the summer (unless Obama’s support collapses like his fundraising is) because I have been convinced since his Stimulus Packages screw up the man was toast. You don’t fix the economy and give people hope then you don’t get a second term. So more polls showing the same dire future are not going to be of much interest. But occasionally I may opine on the inexperienced community organizer failed as world leader for all to obvious reasons. And Americans noticed.


32 responses so far

32 Responses to “Connecting Dots”

  1. Layman says:


    This past week a series of events took place which in total should prove to be historic in the history of space flight. I’m surprised you haven’t posted a word on it. Your thoughts?

  2. lurker9876 says:

    In regards to SpaceX…not much. Although, I recently learned that John Muratore went to work for SpaceX. Because of him, I’m not surprised at how they were able to get SpaceX up there so quickly.

    The state of Texas has just started to get interested in helping SpaceX build a new spaceport in Brownsville. A good move for Texas.

    Redteam, Bob Owens picked up the story on “Lean”.

  3. Redteam says:

    Layman, “but quit being an a$$.”

    Hey sorry if I said something wrong. I sure don’t want to offend you, you’re one of the good guys on the blog.
    You did admit that you didn’t know much about the subject and made a remark about what your friend said. I was just pointing out that I didn’t quite understand why he used the example he did. It seemed that he was saying you could scan a dollar bill into Adobe and it would show up as layers, and implied that it shouldn’t do that. I was just saying it wasn’t a good example because US currency is, in fact, printed in many layers and therefore should show up as being made in layers. but if you just take a dollar bill and copy it with a scanner, then look at it with Adobe, it ‘will not’ show up in layers. The BC did show up in layers, meaning it was printed in layers, not just scanned from an original and then verified as a ‘certified copy’.

    I’ll also admit that I’m not an expert at all these things, but what I said above is just common sense, something louctiel wouldn’t agree on, but then he keeps time sheets on subjects he studies and thinks that makes him an expert. or something…

    anyhow, I do mean it, I’m sorry if I offended you…

  4. Layman says:

    RT: We’re cool!

    Lurker: Not sure what you mean by. “not much.” The successful Falcon 9 launch of Dragon to the ISS is a major milestone in the commercial space business. It also gives SpaceX a huge leg up in the race to become the next crew launch supplier to NASA.

    I used to work in the rocket business and when Musk started SpaceX I thought he was an egotistical blowhard. He is, but he’s put together a great team of (mostly young) talent. They are innovative and hungry and showing that a private venture without the stifling interference of government can make things happen – and relatively quickly.

    If Dragon is successfully recovered next week then this mission will rival the early manned flights in importance and certainly be up ther with the launches of Sputnik and Explorer 1 in terms of historical significance.

  5. joe six-pack says:

    I just hope that President Obama is not looking at these polls. I hope he is looking at all the polls he can come up with that say he will win re-election handily.

    I am worried about what President Obama might do if he believes that he will lose. He is not moderate. Desperate people do desperate things. The last thing in the world that I want is President Obama taking drastic action to get re-elected.

  6. lurker9876 says:

    layman, There are a lot of unhappy and angry people at JSC – knowing that JSC and NASA’s future are questionable. There really isn’t much to celebrate.

    joe-six-pack: Check American Thinker this morning: 1) Reverend Wright’s church bookstore is filled with books about Marxism and black liberation theology. 2) Whether to air more videos of Reverend Wright’s sermons. And many ore.

  7. Layman says:


    Still not sure where you stand. Can’t tell from your comments. Are you in favor of a bloated Government run/funded bureaucracy over a private venture? Do you think SpaceX’s accomplishments are somehow illegitimate? Or are you just reporting the state of affairs at JSC?

    My experience with NASA is that there are still pockets of brilliance and innovation but their management structure and risk assessment tools are stuck in the 70s.

    IMHO, the only way for NASA to survive is to recreate itself into a leaner, nimbler, and more efficient organization. Those at JSC who aren’t too happy are looking at themselves and their Government funded job, benefits, and pensions. Perhaps they’d be better off thinking about the mission for which NASA was created and still exists.

  8. lurker9876 says:

    I am not in favor of bloated government and I have no problems with the commercial space development.

    However, where I work, we operate under very tight and lean budgets so there’s no bloating where I work. We no longer do waterfall approach in software development.

    Constellation was badly smeared to the point that the stories of overbudgeting are not that true.

    I do not want the commercial space development subsidized to the point where NASA does not own its own space vehicles under its control.

    Commercial space development is not justifiably comparable to the development of the Apollo and Mercury programs. Apollo and Mercury programs were the NASA-industrial complex. They are two different types of programs. And I believe that NASA can go back to the approaches used by the Apollo and Mercury programs at lean budget.

    I just don’t see how profitable the commercial space companies can be if NASA is the only customer and the majority of Americans cannot afford the tickets.

    I listen to my husband who acts as a liaison between NASA and the commercial space companies and the stories are not good.

    Most people here believe that JSC will become simply a museum park within a few years.

  9. Redteam says:

    Did everyone take the weekend off, or what? Why are we not all here ‘connecting the dots’ ?

    Somebody put a dot up here so everyone can connect.

    Here’s one: “I am not in favor of bloated government ” from lurker just above. Who is in favor of bloated goverment(other than liberals, of course)?

  10. Redteam says:

    First, I’m not a fan of MSNBC or Chris Hayes, but having said that, at least when he put his foot in his mouth and said he was uncomfortable calling Fallen soldiers, hero’s. At least today he issued what sounds to be a genuine apology. I think he was looking at it from the standard liberal viewpoint that anyone is dumb to serve in the military.
    But, having realized that it takes a special type of person to die for his country.. to be willing to do what it takes to preserve the way of life that Americans grew up with. I’m sure that most people that serve in any of the military services believe that the law of averages are with them and they won’t actually be one of the ones that actually dies in service to the country. I know I spent four years in the Navy and it really never occurred to me that I might actually have to ‘die’ for the country. But now that I’m older and wiser, I realize that wearing the uniform makes you a target of those that oppose what this country stands for. So it occurred to me that while Chris Hayes might be uncomfortable calling a fallen soldier, how uncomfortable do you think that soldier was when he reached the stark realization that he was, in fact, about to pay the ultimate sacrifice. I’m sure most of them die like true heros. I’m sure that all of them deserve to be called a ‘HERO’.

  11. Redteam says:

    I hit submit before I finished: I meant:

    That one sentence above should have read:

    “So it occurred to me that while Chris Hayes might be uncomfortable calling a fallen soldier, a hero.”

    and then, so I’m willing to cut Hayes some slack and think that he realized that there really are some people out there that are ‘willing’ to pay the ultimate price’ and for this fully deserve the title Hero.

    Memorial Day, a good time for his apology. I do feel as if he meant it.

  12. Layman says:


    We’re all too busy enjoying a day off from the salt mines and enjoying an adult beverage or two to connect the dots.

    Still, I put my flag up outside my house Friday morning and won’t take it down until tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, I only saw 3 other flags in my neighborhood. What the hell is wrong with people?

    I say this because my 12 year-old son had one of his friends stop by this morning and ask us why we had a flag in front of the house. He had a 12 year-old response, ” Because its Memorial Day you idiot.”

    I laughed, then felt sorry for the kid. He had no clue what the Holiday was about. After choking down the urge to go kick his parent’s ass I calmly explained to him why we celebrate Memorial Day and why it is important. He left and said he was going to go ask his parents if they could get a flag. Well see… I’m half expecting a nasty gram and/or a lawsuit.