Feb 02 2012
Quick Post
Romney handily won FL, and lost a lot of the Tea Party/Libertarians in the process. Good luck to the GOP this cycle, they either win big over Obama or else resurrect his presidency from the ashes of failure.
If all is well Obama’s poll numbers will sink back to being around 9+% underwater, the GOP edge over the Dems in the generic congressional polls will rebound to +9% and money will flow in to the campaign war chests.
If Romney’s coronation is a net negative, then the Obama’s poll numbers will go slightly positive, the Dems will be equal or lead the GOP in the congressional ballot, the coffers will not fill, and conservative media will see one of their worst years ever.
Now we sit back and wait and see. The theory and conditions are out there.
re: libertarians Some interesting chatter around the web this morning to the effect that Romney, if he should win (and again I recommend Nate Silver’s 5 scenario analysis to any who want to understand how things might play out from here) should nominate Rand Paul for VP on his ticket. There’s no indication that he’s thinking this, but it would be an interesting ploy – how could Ron Paul and his supporters say no to that? And Rand stands on the line in-between the Tea Party and the Libertarians, with appeal to both.
that’s still fantasy, of course. but it would be interesting.
I just don’t see all those Tea Party/Libertarians deciding to stay home and let Obama win by default. I’m hopeful that if Romney ends up being the candidate that they’ll hold their nose and vote for him – while at the same time aggressively backing conservative candidates for the House and Senate.
When all is said and done I hope everone remembers the mission: NO MORE OBAMA!
FWIW: In FL Romney actually attracted a small but, nonetheless, higher percentage of tea party people.
I personally think Romney is not only becoming a better candidate during this primary, but also proving that he is more ‘authentic’ and has stronger core values than Gingrich, by staying on point with comments and POVs, even tough they are being sliced and diced by his detractors.
I remember how Mitch Daniels was excoriated by many conservatives for taking RTW off the table in Indiana last Spring, when he was attempting to pass other worthy reforms, such as school and local municipal reforms. He didn’t want to jeopardize his entire agenda in order to please conservatives who wanted him to ‘kick a**’ and go for a juggernaut agenda, much like Kasich was doing in Ohio.
In retrospect now, it is obvious that Kasich went too far with his reforms, alienating people in Ohio, miserably failing to pass his RTW laws, in the process, and making it much more difficult in the GE for a republican to take that state. However, Daniels, waited, judiciously and quietly signed the RTW Act into Indiana law this year, when it was right for the state, instead of pandering to the base, temporarily increasing his popularity with them, at the expense of having RTW go down in flames, possibly taking along the successful passage of his other reforms as well.
An even, steady temperament and a long-view strategy is so important in leadership — much more so than a candidate who offers a feel-good ‘fight song’ as a major reason to endorse his candidacy.
The pure libertarians I know personally (some good friends, too, don’t get me wrong) were always going to stay home unless Ron Paul was on the ticket. That’s one of the things that has always put me off the Libertarian Party as a movement, even though I’m sympathetic to many of their ideals: as a group, they tend to be very big on Ideology, and very low on practical coping skills. As a somewhat redneck friend of mine used to say about people like this, “them boys jes’ ain’t got no sense.” Good people, but dumber than a bag of hammers a lot of the time.
On the other hand, that’s probably true ’bout most all of us these days.
Interesting side story about Gingrich challenging Florida’s winner-takes-all delegate rules. Best bet is that the winner-takes-all rule stands, mainly because the nat’l party has already penalized Florida by restricting their delegates, *but* there are grounds for Gingrich to make a formal challenge to this.
Here’s the kicker: if he *does* make the challenge, it doesn’t have to be officially considered until a week before the convention in August, by which time the race will probably long be over, making the challenge moot. But if it’s not over by then, then things will probably be so fluid that the GOP ends up with a brokered convention where none of the rules on delegates mean anything at all anymore, so the challenge will still be moot.
long story short: Gingrich can make a technical challenge to the rule, but he can’t make a meaningful one.
They just want to raise their taxes because they love them so much.
Romney should NOT select Ron Paul as his VP. That would hurt, not help, his candidacy. He does need to embrace Ron Paul supporters, however. There are other ways to do it (ie Ron Paul cabinet position, etc) that is involved in Treasury issues, Fed Reserve oversight, etc. He would need to make sure that Ron Paul’s voice was still active.
A Rubio VP would excite the conservative/tea party base.
not Ron Paul – RAND Paul. fils, pas le père.
he’s solidly inside the Tea Party camp, but he still can call on his father’s supporters. Probably. Maybe.
Ron Paul as Sec of the Treasury would be absolutely hilarious. It’s probably not a really good idea, but heck, could he be any worse than Geithner? And getting to watch everyone on Wall Street speak in tongues while their heads spin around would be well worth the trouble it causes.
Frogg:
“A Rubio VP”
As you, and all educated readers well know, Rubio is not a natural born(native born yes) US citizen and is not eligible. (same as Obama)
and I’m not interested in a debate on this, just reminding.
McDonald of VA, Martinez of NM has been mentioned. Allen West would certainly generate interest. Jindal is another one who has resurrected his state from the dead, and has a good record to run on.
jan, I live in Louisiana where Jindal is losing popularity quickly. I have supported him (and will likely continue to) but he is doing some Anti-conservative things that aren’t popular now.
He is in the same category as Rubio, he’s not a natural born citizen and is not eligible to be president. Native born yes, natural born, no.
WWS, hey!!! they let you out?? better stay away from that place.
anyhow, you said:
“Interesting side story about Gingrich challenging Florida’s winner-takes-all delegate rules. Best bet is that the winner-takes-all rule stands, mainly because the nat’l party has already penalized Florida by restricting their delegates”
I understand that the ‘rules’ as written, way before the date for the Florida primary date was changed, was that if a state moved their date prior to March 6 that they would lose 50% of their delegates and that the delegates would be proportional. Another kicker, as written, is that the delegates are non-binding. That means delegates do not have to vote for a specific person. If that is true, and I’ve found (thru Google) several articles that support this, then they should all play by the rules. otherwise, make it clear before the election that there is no rules. As a side note, Missouri has done just that, it is non binding and delegates will not be pledged to anyone regardless of who gets the most votes.
I emphasize ‘rule’ because this is a ‘rule’ and not a ‘penalty’.
If any memo was published to the Republican party of Florida that disputes the ‘rules’ and anyone knows where that memo is, please publish a link. I haven’t been able to find one.
Again, WWS, welcome back (and stay clear of that place)
RedTeam
I though you resided in Georgia.
@redteam,
While there is some merit to the argument about the meaning of “natural born citizen” and I am sympathetic of it, I do not think it was EVER tested in court (where it matters).
dbostan: actually the US Supreme Court has ruled.
“The United States Supreme Court has interpreted the term natural born citizen to mean a person born in the United States of parents that were themselves United States Citizens.
Minor v. Happersett
, 88U.S. 162, 167 (1874)”
jan, I was born and grew up in Ga. left there when I was 30, (long time ago) but lot’s of my relatives still live there.
Thanks for the clarification Redteam.
I guess everyone has taken the day off. Is Trump’s endorsement a death knell for Romney? gotta wonder who would want his endorsement. Seems as if Trump is really in the tank for Obama. May be out to undermine Romney..
Seems as if all the news is that there is only an economic decline in the future up until the election, thereby sealing obama’s fate in the dustbin of history. Good riddance, he deserves it.
The All Star panel did not think the Trump endorsement had much weight because of his waffling actions.
However, there seems to be some buyer’s remorse among those that voted for Romney and that’s growing. Especially after his “poor” comment.
And Romney is now being vetted as the means of comparing Romney to Obama as an attempt to tell the voters that Romney is no different from Obama so why not vote for Obama? Example are his comments, decisions, actions as the governor of Mass, such as he believed in contraception mandates (eventually).
I am not sure that I agree with Jonah Goldberg’s case why we should go with Romney. He believes that the strong Republican Congress in both houses can keep Romney on a leash because he does what he is told. He’s not an original thinker.
And he also believes that Newt is uncontrollable. Newt is too much of an original thinker and doesn’t quite enjoy a large set of conservative principles…consistently.
There is also an increasing talk of the Republican Party meeting the Whig Party end dues to the growing rift between the elites and the conservative little people (aka tea party). I wouldn’t be surprised of such an outcome.
Trump is a total tool – I have thought that for years and would have said that no matter who he endorsed. The only effect of his endorsement that I can see is that it means that at least he’s done trying to play a part in all of this, so hopefully we won’t have to put up with him anymore.
The funny part of this non-story is that up until 24 hours before the endorsement, Newt’s campaign staff were calling reporters and telling them that Trump was going to endorse Newt. Incredibly sloppy and stupid move – did they think they could pressure Trump by saying that? Probably desperation in the Gingrich camp has reached a point where they’re not thinking at all anymore.
On the day before the Nevada caucus, it looks like the Gingrich campaign is starting to fall apart internally:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/us/politics/gingrich-off-to-a-bumpy-start-in-nevada.html?_r=2
the funniest part of this article was where one of Newt’s advisers previewed his slogan for the Fall general election campaign:
She added, “Coming in second would be a major win.”
Now who couldn’t get behind a slogan like that? I wonder whether it will be the Giants or the Patriots who will have a “major win” on Sunday. But based on that definition, I confidently predict a “major win” for Newt both tomorrow and in the rest of the primaries.
(although I guess he will have to settle for a “minor win” in Virginia, since he forgot to get his name put on the ballot there)
But for anyone in Vegas today, with all those wonderful hotels and major convention venues, Newt has a “major” campaign event today which should really boost his candidacy. You would guess Belaggio, or Luxor, or MGM Grand – but oops, no one thought about making reservations for anything like this till yesterday. So, if you want to see Newt in person, you gotta track down that MAJOR Las Vegas institution – Stony’s Rockin’ Country Bar. Gotta lock down that Friday morning barfly vote!!!
now that’s real organization for you. A guy who can plan like that oughtta run this country, I tell ya!
The lame stream media and dems are alll rooting for Romney to win the Rep nomination because there is very little difference between his policies and those of the far left. He says he is against Obamacare but was responsible for Romneycare in his state. He has appointed pro gay rights agenda judges who are not pro life or family values friendly. I fear he is just another John McCain clone who will make absolutely no difference in changing the direction our country is headed, which is off the cliff. If we ever expect to change the direction we are headed and get our country back on the right track we are going to have to clean house from top to bottom. that means getting rid of Obama and his Communist pro Muslim anti American traitors and henchmen, Congressmen who would sell their souls for a dollar, dim witted civil service protected agenda driven liberal bureucrats and judges and everyone who is in govt. service for the money. Govt. Workers are now paid like millionaires. If you invested a million dollars at todays interest rates you wouldn’t get as much return on your money as the lowest paid govt. workers earn. We need to lay down the law to China and those Middle Eastern tyrants, stop subsidizing our enemies, end the bureaucratic stranglehold on businesses and force manufacturers to bring our manufacturing jobs back home by levying tariffs on the unreasonable amount of foreign imports. All free trade has done for us is to eliminate a major source of income for the government (tarriffs) and switch the financial burden to American Industries in the form of higher taxes, making them even less competitive. Doesn’t anyone in Washington have sense enough to see two inches in front of their noses any more? If Romney is the Rep. candidate I think I will go back to my cave and hibernate through this upcomming election.