Oct 13 2010

Huffpo Confirms AJStrata On House Losses

Published by at 9:00 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

The other day I looked at the PVI of races in contention and then pondered various scenarios for the November Tsunami rising out there in the nation. In this analysis I posited three wave sizes to reflect three generic battle poll ranges. I assumed a generic ballot that had the Dems-Reps about even would mean districts with a PVI of R+1 would be where the wave would hit strongly. That means districts with R-0, D+1, etc would be less and less effected as the PVI shifted to the Democrats. The second scenario I assumed was where the generic ballot was trending +3-5% to the GOP. Here I conservatively predicted the tsunami would take out most D+2 districts. And finally I assumed that for a generic ballot of +10% for the GOP, that would wipe out D+6 districts (and everything from D+5 to R+10). Of course there will be exceptions to the rule in all ranges of PVI, and the wave will reach higher to some degree. So I tempered the results using four wave intensities as seen in the following table:

As can be seen I predicted with a D+2 wave and with 90% of those seats going to the GOP, the GOP would win 67 seats (give or take a handful). So I was not surprised when the folks over at HuffPo-Pollster confirmed this model:

So let’s just come out and say it: there is no reason to think that Republicans will do any worse than 1994 (when they picked up 54 seats) and there is plenty of data to suggest that it will, in fact, be a better year for the GOP. Our projection–based on all current available data–is that the GOP will gain between 60 and 70 House seats in November.

Emphasis actually in the original post. As I said last week, the House is lost and Speaker Pelosi is not history (barring something truly out of the blue). I still think these folks are a bit low, since many of the generic ballots are trending in the +8-13% GOP range. I can see an 87-90 seat pick up in the making. But at least I am not alone out here on this limb:

The GOP lead on the generic Congressional ballot is unprecedented. Republicans now lead on the generic Congressional ballot by seven points (48% to 41%) according to RCP. Our analysis of likely voter surveys taken over the last 30 days has the GOP lead at +9. As we have said before, Republicans rarely–if ever–lead on the GCB. According to Gallup, in 1994 the two parties were tied on the GCB the week before the election. Republicans picked up 54 seats that year.

No wonder the Dems are in full panic mode, they have good reason to be. Their party is about to be devastated for generations to come.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Huffpo Confirms AJStrata On House Losses”

  1. Rick C says:

    I didn’t like the last line:

    “Their party is about to be devastated for generations to come”

    I seem to remember the Democrats running around in November 2008 saying similar things about the Republicans. And, in 2004, Rove was talking about a permanent Republican majority. That didn’t work out either.

    The thing is the Republican’s have to perform. They need to make substantial progress on taxation, spending, and the deficit. They also need to repeal or defund as much of ObamaCare as they can barring Presidential vetoes and filibusters.

    If they fail with these things and run around on social prgrams or over investigating the Obama administration, the will be strugling for votes in 2012 and later.

  2. crosspatch says:

    “I seem to remember the Democrats running around in November 2008 saying similar things about the Republicans. ”

    What politicians need to realize, as the independent voters outnumber voters in the two major parties, is that independents are fickle. Just because they voted with you in the last election doesn’t mean they will vote with you in this election.

  3. dhunter says:

    If the newly elected republican congress were to be exceptionally effective and undo 1/2 of that which the socialists have done in the last 20 months the country will still be leaning much further left than when the Won was elected and if he is so inclined Obama could possibly run again and be re-elected by the same leeches that voted for free stuff last time around.
    The republicans need to leave the social stuff to the States where it belongs and try with all their might to return power usurped by the feds and the executive branch back to the states and legislative branch.
    Only by dismantling entire agencies and defunding entire departments can this power grab be reversed and power given back to where it belongs, the people in their local (States) jurisdictions.
    The judiciary and Justice Dept. will most likely stand in the way as they have in CA (DADT) and AZ (immigration).

    This is THE battle that must be engaged and won and it will take balls to do so. If this ball is put into play the gal from Alaska may very well pick it up and be the point guard that wins the battle in 2012 and beyond, she is the only one that has shown the guts to do so.

    Let the investigations begin!

  4. WWS says:

    I don’t think “fickle” is the right word; I agree with AJ, the Independents have been consistent about what they want. The ones who have been fickle are the politicians of each party who say whatever they think they can get away with in a campaign and then who flush all those fancy promises down the toilet 2 minutes after they’re elected.

    A clear mandate is being given to roll back a lot of this mess. If that mandate isn’t respected, then the Independents are going to keep moving until it is.

    And I also agree with AJ that the Dem party *Is* finished, because they revealed themselves too completely – things like this CofC attack are party killers. If the GOP fails to deliver, then we are going to see a STRONG third party arise. I rather hope it doesn’t come to that, since that will be a time of chaos, but it easily could happen.