Oct 05 2010

Pending Changes In RCP Senate Predictions

Published by at 9:10 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Fox News is out with some senate polls which should shift another state into the GOP column in the RCP average. First off, West-by-golly-Virginia:

Deep resistance to Obama’s agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy.

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.

At RCP WV is a toss up because there are only two other polls in the mix. Rasmussen with a 48-46 lead for Raese and PPP with a 46-43 lead for Raese. Adding this 3rd poll could give RCP enough reason to move the state over to ‘leans GOP’ since it will make 3 polls showing on average a Raese lead of 47-44 lead. I have been waiting for another poll to move this state, we may have it.

Other poll news from Fox has Reid finally fading to Angle 49-46%. As I suspected, the leak of a meeting between Angle and the other Tea Party (Scott Ashjian) candidate pretty much drove the other candidate’s supporters to Angle, once they realized the guy was more bitter about losing than anything else. This could move NV out of the tossup category. It is a race to see whether NV or WA fall next, but I suspect they are both ready to go any week now.

14 responses so far

14 Responses to “Pending Changes In RCP Senate Predictions”

  1. archtop says:

    Looks like your site is back to normal :^)

    Too bad about CT – Fox shows McMahon 10 points behind. I think this may be an outlier but we’ll see. There’s four weeks to go!

    Interestingly, if NV and WV go to the GOP, we may be seeing a close to 50-50 senate, with Reid out of a job…

  2. WWS says:

    that leaked tape incident was really quite funny. The most “controversial” thing Angle said was “the Republican Party has lost it’s standards, lost it’s principles.”

    Really? That’s controversial? I thought that was the one thing that everyone in the country agreed on! That’s why the Tea Party movement was necessary!

    And it’s doubly funny to hear Harry Reid criticize the statement, since that’s his own party line. Of course, I can see why he’s unhappy – his campaign has been trying to say that she is just going to be another republican like the ones voted out in 2006 and 2008, and her criticizing that bunch as much as he is ruins his entire campaign.

  3. Jay032 says:

    Personally I think the GOP has a good shot at recapturing the Senate this year. Although Dems seemed to be doing well in late September, that seems to be ebbing while the Republicans in various races look to be regaining momentum. This is probably the best time for that to happen.

  4. CatoRenasci says:

    I think the CT senate seat is a long shot – as despicable as Blumenthal is, Linda has not really caught fire and was only ‘ok’ in last night’s debate. Better than Blumenthal, but not (IMHO) enough better to make a real difference.

  5. crosspatch says:

    FYI, voting started as of yesterday in California. As of yesterday, you can mail your ballot in, or go to your nearest Registrar of Voters office and cast your ballot there.

  6. WWS says:

    Nice to see the Doug Hoffman did the right thing and gave up the race.

    And the ads being run against MrsCowSki are getting hilarious – I predict that she is going to be ridiculed into obscurity. (she could have just retired with grace, and she would have been in line to run again in 2014 with a lot of support)

  7. lurker9876 says:

    Agreed. Doug Hoffman did not get much, if any, support from the Republican establishment and probably did not get much money through donations.

    But he certainly did the wise thing by helping increase Doheny’s odds in winning his election.

    At this point, I’m glad Murkowski is done. Such stupidity.

  8. AJStrata says:


    The insane thing about Murkowski is she could have taken on Mark Begich (D) when his term was up and probably have won!

    She is so foolish.

  9. Fai Mao says:

    I think the Senate will end up 52 48 for the Republicans. I think the Republicans take California and Washington as well as Illinois and WV

  10. Toes192 says:

    Alaskan here… Senator Murkowski’s ads are very good… The Anchorage Newspaper seems to slant their headlines and news articles towards her … I look forward to see if they will endorse any of the three… I have not seen much from Mr. Miller… Could be close… Very possible the McAdams Dem supporters will make a strategic shift and vote for the Republican who most closely shares their view… hehe WWS… I wonder if our director of Elections would take MrsCowSki as an “intent” to vote for Lisa …

  11. crosspatch says:

    Hey, look what hit the wire today:

    October 04, 2010|By Jack Dolan, Los Angeles Times

    Reporting from Sacramento — More than $69 million in California welfare money, meant to help the needy pay their rent and clothe their children, has been spent or withdrawn outside the state in recent years, including millions in Las Vegas, hundreds of thousands in Hawaii and thousands on cruise ships sailing from Miami.

    State-issued aid cards have been used at hotels, shops, restaurants, ATMs and other places in 49 other states, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam, according to data obtained by The Times from the California Department of Social Services. Las Vegas drew $11.8 million of the cash benefits, far more than any other destination. The money was accessed from January 2007 through May 2010.

    I don’t have a welfare card. Maybe if I had one I could afford to go to Hawaii.

  12. >The insane thing about Murkowski is she could have taken
    >on Mark Begich (D) when his term was up and probably
    >have won!
    >She is so foolish.

    This is all about Murkowski’s hurt feelings.

    Going from being a senior member of the Energy Committee, and one of the Senate hatchet men for Mitch McConnell, to being a junior senator behind prole beauty Sarah Palin’s stand in was a humiliation Murkowski could not endure.

  13. tarpon says:

    I guess W VA finally figured out Obama was shutting down coal mining.

  14. oneal lane says:

    I have not seen the numbers is Murkowski going to win or foil Miller?