Aug 25 2010

Primary Night Reflections

Published by at 7:07 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Updates Below!

I was not surprised to see most of the results coming in last night. I was surprised at how poor the CNN coverage was. In an election year when hyper-partisanship on both sides is disdained universally, CNN decided to have on Anderson Cooper 360 Erik Erickson and John Avoros – two fairly conceited hyper-partisans who want to control their respective party and chase out all RINOs & DINOs. If you want to kill your ratings CNN, keep promoting the hyper-partisans.

This is the year of the independent – a.k.a RINOs and DINOs and Tea Partiers. At least for the GOP side of the equation. Look who lost and won in AZ. The great Maverick, RINO, promoter of comprehensive immigration reform and of campaign reform, and the 2008 GOP presidential candidate Senator John McCain romped (56%) former congressman and far right flame thrower JD Hayward. Hayward was the hyper-partisan GOP candidate and got romped just like the far right candidates got romped in the 2008 presidential election. It takes a special mix of independence and conservatism to win the American public over these days. Too far outside the central mainstream and you get the boot. Hayward was never inside the comfort zone, he never had a chance. And is lame claims of an upset near the end of the race were simply pathetic.

Rubio in FL represents more of blend of tea party libertarianism and muted social conservatism that can rally the people in 2010. In a year when the country is fed up with being told how and what to think from DC, dictating social norms from Washington is not a winning strategy for either party. That is why Rubio is destined to take the Senate seat in November – he remains inside the acceptable bounds of the center, just like VA Governor Bob McDonnell, NJ Governor Chris Christie and MA Senator Scott Brown.

FL’s primary results show that the Democrats still have a major problem. They remain the party of big government and the party that believes in the concept of the elite ruling political class. That is the only explanation for Meek’s romp (57%-31%) in the Democrat senate primary race. Meek is the establishment candidate and comes from an emerging political dynasty (his mother was a famous liberal congresswoman). The choice of Meek indicates it is the Democrat Party which continues to follow a path at complete opposition with the voters of America. It is that political party (not just its leaders) out of touch and heading for election disaster in November. This is not the year for the big government. political ruling class party.

The FL Governor’s results on the GOP side pretty much confirm that GOP voters are not interested in pedigreed career politicians. In that race former US congressman and state AG McCollum had a surprise loss to political newbie Scott 43-46%. It is clear from this totally different result that those who wish to clean house are on the GOP side in spades, if purple FL is any kind of barometer of the national mood.

FL also clearly shows the enthusiasm gap between the two parties. The total number of voters in the GOP primary for governor was roughly  1.28 million, while the total number on the Democrat primary for governor was 0.86 million. That means the GOP took 60% of the primary voters and the Dems got a paltry 40%. We can cross-check this by looking at the senate primary races in FL. The GOP contest took 1.25 million and the Dem contest took 0.91 million. That equates to a GOP wave of 58% to the Dems 42%. Finally, another cross-check in the AZ senate primary shows the Dems got 250,ooo votes and the GOP took in 500,000 votes, which puts the GOP up 66%-33% over the Dems. There may be exceptions, but it still looks like we have not seen the last of results like we saw in VA, NJ and MA.

I have heard a lot of lame commentary by party stalwarts or hyper-partisans trying to spin other messages on these results. Everyone in the liberal media is looking at Meek and saying incumbents from the big government party are safe. Well, they can be in denial all they want. They are not shaping this election – it is being electorate than either major political party or the liberal media. This is not a pro-government election year.

Update: Again, Alaska illustrates clearly this is not a year for career politicians or the big government party as sitting Senator Lisa Murkowski (another political dynasty in the making) may have lost her primary race. To see an incumbent like Murkowski go down to a political outsider (and Tea Party candidate) is just one more clear message from the American people. Dems, you will be losing a ton of seats come November. This looks to be historic.

Update: Ed Morrissey puts it well (as usual!):

When Shira Toeplitz notes that no poll predicted this outcome, it’s not an exaggeration.  Palin’s endorsement of Miller was seen as a long shot, as well as another volley in a years-long political feud between Palin and the Murkowskis.  Few people gave the endorsement much chance of changing the status quo, especially since Murkowski didn’t have a record that produced anywhere near as much ire among conservatives as Palin’s former running mate John McCain — who won his primary by 30 points.

If Miller wins this race, it’s a testament to the power of Palin in Alaska and the energy of the Tea Party.  It may also be a warning to pollsters to start making some adjustments to likely-voter models in the days ahead. We’ll keep an eye on the outcome of this race today.

I predicted a while back that the polls were under-estimating the wave coming, just as they did in the NJ and VA governor races of ’09 and the MA Senate race won by Scott Brown. If you move all the polls 3-5% to the right you get a wipe out of Dems in both houses and the governor seats. 3-5% is the margin of error in most polls, so that is not a huge number in absolute terms, but it is huge in terms which side wins in November.

I actually suspect, like NJ, VA and MA, the polls are more likely off by 5-10%. Which again is quite accurate for a unique year with no historic precedent for pollsters to estimate against.

Update: Ace of Spades has a great smack down on all the liberals who predicted the extinction of Palin in a Miller loss. Lots of crow being served up this morning!

Addendum: Going back to the pollster issue. If you look at FL the polls between McCollum and Scott were all over the map. Which is another indication the error bars on this year’s polls maybe be a lot larger than pollsters care to admit or advertise.

Update: DC just began to wake up:

The stunning news that developed over night in Alaska — with 98 percent of precincts reporting, attorney Joe Miller (R) leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) 51 percent to 49 percent — reveals the depth of anti-incumbent sentiment in the country, the power of former Alaska Gov.Sarah Palin (and the tea party movement) and the perils of prognostication in low turnout intraparty fights.

Not to mention the incredible level of denial in the Political Industrial Complex about how bad it is for Dems BECAUSE of all the crap they passed!

27 responses so far

27 Responses to “Primary Night Reflections”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    Who wanted JD Hayworth to win? I was glad he lost.

  2. lurker9876 says:

    Lisa Murkowski just may be the swing vote that Reid needs during the lame duck session. UGH.

  3. lurker9876 says:

    wws and others, I learned tonight from a tea party meeting that some new organization that spun off from ACORN in Houston had been registering 2000 voters per week.

    Then I read this from Riehl website:

    But then when a tea party holds a meeting, they always have voter registration forms for people to fill out.

  4. ivehadit says:

    And Lurk, those “registered” voters are going to “vote” whether they are present at the voting booth or not…

    Get on it, republicans. This is a nasty, nasty group, imho.

  5. lurker9876 says:

    Yeah, you’re right. Kings Patriots have been working hard in the last few weeks to ensure integrity of the votes in November as well as valid voter registrations. It’s called, “True the Vote”.

    Here is something that is recently discussed at Glenn Beck’s show: Divine Providence versus Manifest Destiny (not started with him but written by several in the past such as Frederick Von Hayek.)

    What do you think?

  6. tarpon says:

    The vote count, D’s vs R’s in Florida is the big story. Turnout is usually about 30% in favor of D’s. This time it reversed.

  7. AJ,

    What this primary night shows is that for the American voter, “It’s Jobs, Stupid.”

    For Democratic Party vital interests, howver, the story is “IT’S REDISTRICTING STUPID!!!”

    Based on this Michael Barone primary night observation:

    First, optimistic scenarios don’t always come true. If Republican Meg Whitman is not elected governor in California, Democrats will be able to draw the lines of its 53 districts. That could offset Republican gains elsewhere. And it’s not a sure thing that Republicans will make the gains they need to control the process in several states.

    The worse Democratic Party is doing nationally, the more Democrats and their interest groups will throw money into California media markets and especially GOTV efforts for redistricting reasons.

    Their ultimate firewall is the California governorship, not Blue/Purple House seats.

    The biggest marker of real Democratic Party thinking on the 2010 election results are the California media buys in Southern California and Central Valley.

    Democrats and their Leftist political Non-government Organization (NGO) machine have to “all in” in terms of California media market option buys in the next few weeks or they are done, given the wave we saw last night.

  8. AJ,

    This is the nut meat of a Michael Barone Washington State Primary analysis:

    The picture I get is that the loudest warriors in the culture war politics are staying true to their previous party preferences, while those less strongly engaged in those struggles, particularly voters of modest incomes and less-than-elite educations, have moved strongly away from the Obama Democrats..

    Washington Examiner link:

    Overall, the pattern I have seen since Senator Scott Brown (MA-R) was elected is that:

    1) In heavily urban Blue states, independents are breaking three to two against Democrats

    2) In mixed urban/rural Purple & Red States, independents are breaking two to one against Democrats

    3) In heavily rural, small, Red states, they would be breaking three to one against Democrats, if there were any independents left.

    4) Democratic turn out is down from 2002, let alone 2006 or 2008

    5) Republican turn out is proportionately higher than 1994.

    6) When Republicans vote, they are going 9 to 1 for Republican candidates.

    7) When Democrats vote, they are going about 8 to 1 for Democratic candidates.

    Numbers one through five on the above list repeated themselves yesterday.

  9. WWS says:

    Meanwhile, new home sales “unexpectedly” dropped to the lowest amount yet measured, and durable goods orders “unexpectedly” fell as well.

  10. AJ,

    Exhibit 47B of “Irrational regimes behave more so under pressure” —

    The EPA decision on this is timed for the day before the November 2010 election.

    This is the NRA’s best fund raising opportunity since 1994.

  11. lurker9876 says:

    And the Obama adm tries to convince the American public that we are heading in the right direction.

    Yeah right.

  12. AJ,

    You need to address this Trende article as a seperate post ASAP:

    In the tables below, the exact same methodology used to forecast Massachusetts in late December was applied to the various competitive Senate races. The composition of the electorate was altered in each state so that the electorates would be 11 percent more Republican, 5 percent more Independent and 11 percent less Democratic than they were in the 2008 presidential race. Additionally, the Democratic candidates’ share of the Republican vote was decreased by 47 percent (which usually worked out to only a couple of points), and by a third among Independents. The share of the Democratic vote was increased by one and a half percent.
    The results suggest that Republicans would pick up 12 Senate seats, before accounting for any candidate effects

  13. Frogg1 says:

    Pretty fair analysis by AJ. I might disagree somewhat on his summary about McCain. He may have been The great Maverick, RINO, promoter of comprehensive immigration reform and of campaign reform before the primary race; but, that certainly isn’t how he ran his race for re-election. In fact, he was everything but those things in his fight to get re-elected. So, time will tell if he flips to the other side of the road once the newly elected Senate is in place, or not. I did work hard locally on the McCain campaign to get McCain elected President in 2008 (even though I did not support him as the GOP candidate initially) and can live with it. However, I can only hope and pray he is a good soldier in our fight. It was clear early on that Hayworth wasn’t a strong enough candidate to beat him. Win some, lose some. I am excited about several of the other races and think they are large enough in numbers that it will change the face of Congress. We need that. I hope the new faces speak louder than the old ones. I still don’t trust that the GOP got the message in 2006/2008. If they did get the message, then I still don’t trust that they have the political will to do what they need to do. They need this new blood to be a real force and to trully be representative of the people. It is a long tiring fight.

  14. Frogg1 says:

    I can’t get enough of Gov Chris Chrstie:

    Gov. Christie: It’s Simple: “We Don’t Have The Money And We Have To Stop”

  15. AJStrata says:


    Plan to do the Sean Trende article tomorrow. He did the analysis I was going to do – and better. His results confirm my suspicions. I will also address Nate Silver’s latest and how the two analyses show GOP taking the Senate.

    The current polls are way off (as FL and AK just demonstrated so nicely). And if they are off as much as Trende demonstrates, Nate’s model will slide right and the Dems will see the writing on the wall (or ballot in this case).

  16. gwood says:

    Let’s not forget that Sarah Palin endorsed McCain too. If it’s the case that her endorsement defeated Murkowski in Alaska, then it has to have had some effect in Arizona also, although given the margin perhaps not a pivotal amount.I say this because I have this feeling the MSM isn’t goint to give her any credit for endorsing McCain.

  17. […] 3.8% decline. more… Upset in Alaska? – 08/25/2010 Whoa. more… Primary Night Reflections – 08/25/2010 I was not surprised to see most of the results coming in last […]

  18. kathie says:

    Daniel Pearl’s father had this to say about the Mosque. I thought it was a fair observation.

    The established Muslim leadership in the United States, Pearl said, “has had nine years to build up trust by pro-actively resisting anti-American ideologies of victimhood, anger and entitlement.”

    “Reactions to the mosque project indicate that they were not too successful in this endeavor.”
    He views the controversy to be a vote of no confidence in the organized Muslim leadership, not specifically against Rauf.

  19. AJ,

    if you are going to go with the Trende and Silver analysis tomorrow, I suggest you pound on the classic hubris infecting the Leftists.

    As in:

    Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.

    Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under Lisa Jackson, going after lead bullets as a “toxic pollutant” is huge in terms of on-the-ground GOP turn out.

    Jackson is doing exactly the same thing witgh bullet lead as the EPA is doing right now in trying to regulate carbon as a pollutant on “cap and trade” — AKA “exceeding the damned Congressional statutes” — at Obama’s direction.

    She is simply following the same script for other, smaller, Democratic Party interest groups.

    Obama can’t disavow her on lead bullets because it endangers his entire “Cap & Trade” regulatory implementation strategy, which is far more important to him and his money bags political contributors.

    That is why I can’t believe his people at EPA were that stupid to go there.

    This action sunders the link between sports hunters, the environmental movement and the Federal environmental regulators.

    Making urban environmentalists the blood enemy of all gun owners, most rural Americans and all sports hunters is a major cultural and voting shift. Michigan, Wisconson, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New Hampshire just saw all their rural counties, and not a few exurbs, get shifted one voting column to the Right in terms of Republican turn out intensity…less than 75 days before a low Democratic Party turn out (from 9.5% unemployment) Congressional mid-term election.

    Hell, AJ, hunters and gun-huggers in Colorado are going to be asking local Democrats some really difficult environmental questions because of this.

    The CO Republican base is going to get so superchaged that Tencredo may get his Gubenatorial spoiler race spoiled, by straight ticket Republican voting by pissed off pro-gunners who want to make sure CO redistricting has no Democrats at the table.

  20. WWS says:

    I’ve heard that they are also going to promulgate a new safety regulation stating that from now on, all bullets must be made out of marshmellows so that no one can be accidentally hurt. And that instead of gunpowder, all guns will have to be powered by a combination of Mentos and Diet Coke.

    And now Lisa Murkowski is talking about a 3rd party bid? That more than anything else proves to me that her only goal in office is the bribes she can rake in, and that she’s absolutely desperate to keep the gravy train rolling in.

    Disgusting – Alaska voters did right by dumping her!