Jul 13 2010
America Is Not Impressed With DC Liberals
Update: A CBS poll shows the same pending disaster. Jim Geraghty also notes what I see, which is an across the board dip for all Dems. Those used to 70% wins face a 10% drop off. Those used to 58% wins could lose. – end update
The House is all but gone to the Democrats this fall, the governor races will be a historic wipe out for them and the US Senate is teetering on the brink. Â If anyone does not believe the wave that started in NJ and VA and washed through MA over the last 9 months is not still out there – and rising – they are in denial.
NJ & MA were until 2009 safe Democrat strongholds for decades, at least by a 5+% margin and usually more. But in both cases the political backlash to DC liberals shifted the vote by 10% the other way. The GOP candidate won both those races by around 5% each. VA had been turning purple in the last 3 decades, with each party taking statewide races in the +/- 3% range at a minimum. Â In 2009 the GOP took the governor race by over nearly 20% – a huge shift of at least 10% towards the GOP.
If we add 5-10% to the GOP side in any close race due to the rising ire of the independents against the Dems and the enthusiasm gap between the left and right we can see political Armageddon for the Dems. Â It is a very optimistic adjustment to make to polls (that rely on past trends to attenuate their internal models). But the reality is very few expected to see the VA, NJ and MA results until right up until election time. And even then many were in denial.
The Washington Post has a poll out today that indicates the liberals should be considered for the endangered species list:
Public confidence in President Obama has hit a new low, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy.
Regard for Obama is still higher than it is for members of Congress, but the gap has narrowed. About seven in 10 registered voters say they lack confidence in Democratic lawmakers and a similar proportion say so of Republican lawmakers.
Overall, more than a third of voters polled — 36 percent — say they have no confidence or only some confidence in the president, congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans. Among independents, this disillusionment is higher still. About two-thirds of all voters say they are dissatisfied with or angry about the way the federal government is working.
A majority of Americans in a recent James Carville report determined the term ‘socialist’ fit the President (and by extension his party and its members)!
Deep in the poll, they ask, “Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all.†…
When asked about “a socialist,†33 percent of likely voters say it describes Obama “very well,†22 percent say “well,†15 percent say “not too well,†and 25 percent say “not well at all.â€
In other words, 55 percent of likely voters think “socialist†is a reasonably accurate way of describing Obama.
Americans are not socialists – we are Americans. And we have witnessed one of the most incompetent and failed administrations in memory on the economic front, the bipartisanship front, the health care front and the ecological front (that oil is still destroying nature and careers with no end in site due to bureaucratic red tape). The worst is the lack of jobs. Broad tax cuts brought us out of the Carter malaise, the 9-11 attacks and the moral busting Korean War (i.e., Reagan, Bush & Kennedy). Instead of the well known approach liberals bankrupted 2-3 generations in wasted and useless spending. And here we sit with no good jobs being created and liberals declaring success from on high!
And these people think they have a chance of being re-elected???
Talk about your delusions…
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Fiorina is now leading Boxer.
DemPocalypse.
Can we “change” it back?
AJ,
You missed the really important development — State legislatures and the 2010-2012 reapportionment.
There are 20 Democratic state legislatures and four Republicans in danger of flipping in 2010.
Only 1994 was worse, and there are still 14-15 weeks until the second Tuesday in November for Obama to poison the well for Democratic incumbents.
A wipe of of Democratic state legislatures in 2010 means a continuing wipe out of Federal House seats for Democrats in 2012 and beyond.
This is Obama’s long-term gift to the Democratic Party.
Many bad election cycles for house Democrats, starting with one with him on top of the ticket, a poor economy and new district boundaries filled with angry at Democrat voters with no loyalty to current incumbents.
See:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/12/gop-poised-to-grab-control-at-state-levels/?page=3
The odds just got very good that Pres. Obama will get a well funded Democratic primary challenger for 2012.
Trent,
I was not aware the legislatures were also turning. New districting (no gerrymandering) would pretty much seal the fate of this generations of Dems.
So did Obama tell the head of NASA that the leading purpose of the organization was to help Muslims feel good about themselves or NOT. Someone is a liar, who do you think it is? I think it is Obama, he said it and the head of NASA had the audacity to repeat it. What other directions is OBAMA HIDING FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE? America, this is a really big problem.
Looks like Reid may be catching up to Angle according to Rasmussen.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/election_2010_nevada_senate
This is bad news for everybody, but especially the Dems …
[…] Bachmann up nine in MN-06 – hotair.com 07/13/2010 Without trying. more… America Is Not Impressed With DC Liberals – strata-sphere.com 07/13/2010 The House is all but gone to the Democrats this fall, the […]
NRA is considering endorsing Harry Reid as payback for some favors. If they do there will be hell to pay. I have long felt there needed to be a house cleaning at top of NRA. Wayne and the bunch have been at it too long and are now Washington fat.
[blockquote]You missed the really important development — State legislatures and the 2010-2012 reapportionment.
There are 20 Democratic state legislatures and four Republicans in danger of flipping in 2010.
Only 1994 was worse, and there are still 14-15 weeks until the second Tuesday in November for Obama to poison the well for Democratic incumbents.
A wipe of of Democratic state legislatures in 2010 means a continuing wipe out of Federal House seats for Democrats in 2012 and beyond.
This is Obama’s long-term gift to the Democratic Party.
Many bad election cycles for house Democrats, starting with one with him on top of the ticket, a poor economy and new district boundaries filled with angry at Democrat voters with no loyalty to current incumbents.
See:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/12/gop-poised-to-grab-control-at-state-levels/?page=3
The odds just got very good that Pres. Obama will get a well funded Democratic primary challenger for 2012.[\blockquote]
Trent,
How does Texas state legislature look for 2010? And how is Rick Perry polling against Bill White?
And I think a well-funded Democratic primary challenger will be Hillary Clinton.
Neither the Dallas Morning News nor the Austin American Statesman have done a Texas Legislature over view yet. So I have no idea, but my impressions are that the Tea Party is very strong in the DFW area and that bodes poorly for recent Democratic Party gains here.
This is from the Austin American Statesman:
http://www.statesman.com/news/texas-politics/republicans-are-favorites-to-keep-statewide-offices-162673.html?printArticle=y
Over the past two election cycles, Democrats have narrowed Republicans’ once-large majority in the Texas House, and the majority is now within reach for either party. Republicans hold a 77-73 advantage, and supporters of both parties are likely to pour millions of dollars into a handful of House races to determine which party has control in 2011, when legislative districts will be redrawn.
Right now both Houses of the Legislature are nominally controlled by Republicans, but the House is controlled by a RINO faction/Democratic Party Alliance which put all the RINOs in the various chairmanships with Democratic votes.
The Texas Speaker is being challenged from the Right for the speaker spot and a couple of his supporters went down in the March 2010 Republican primaries.
This is the best over all national run down of the state legislatures with google this morning:
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=455378
If history is a guide, GOP could gain
For many, the election will be a referendum on Obama. “There is no question that the incumbent president has a real effect on the outcomes of gubernatorial elections in at least some states,†said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
History is not on the Democrats’ side. Sabato’s research shows that 75 percent of the time, the party that wins the White House loses gubernatorial berths—typically four seats—in the following midterm elections. In 1982, the GOP suffered a net loss of seven gubernatorial spots after Republican Ronald Reagan won the presidency. In 1994, in the first midterm election after Bill Clinton won the White House, his fellow Democrats lost a net of 10 governors’ seats, control of 20 legislative chambers and, for the first time in 40 years, control of Congress. Both of those midterm elections came on the heels of national recessions, and the 1994 election also followed a bitter, failed debate in Congress over health care reform.
The 2002 election stands out as an exception, perhaps because it followed the 2001 terrorist attacks that led to high approval ratings for President George W. Bush. Republicans had a net loss of just one governor in the first election after Bush’s victory in 2000. And the GOP gained 177 legislative seats, the first time since at least 1938 that the party occupying the White House had not lost seats, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL).
Tim Storey, an elections expert at NCSL, cautioned that even unusually high legislative gains by the GOP might not herald a Republican comeback at the state level in 2010 because “Democrats are at such a high-water mark in many states.†Going into the elections, Democrats control both chambers in 27 states, nearly twice the 14 controlled by the GOP. Eight states have split control, and Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan.
There is a Texas political story extension to the same site here:
http://www.stateline.org/live/states/Texas
So far, it has not provided a legislative race over view either.
Republicans might win in November, but look at the people we’re electing! Scott Brown is an inimitable RINO sell out. Better than another Kennedy? Not by much, if at all! And Mark Kirk? Arguably more of a leftist than Brown. Until party leadership changes, both in elected and unelected positions, the US is STILL going to be sold out by RINOs, limp wrists and spineless DC party goers.
The Many bad election cycles for house Democrats they have many more democrats and they starting with one with him on top of the ticket.