My previous post is here. In Obama’s 2012 reelection the Democrats produced more “early voting” ballots in Florida than the GOP did (obviously these are not votes for a candidate, but simply ballots by party ID). They led the GOP by 3% last cycle. Florida [2012] Votes: 4.3 million Democrats: 43% Republicans: 40% That edge […]

Nevada has completed its early voting, and while Democrats have a slight lead in raw numbers, the GOP and Independents have also come out in force. Therefore, some reasonable turnout calculations show a possible Romney win. Here’s the math: Final vote tallies (ref here and here): Democrats: 307,877 (43.9%) Republicans: 259,913 (37%) Independents: 134,055 (19.1%) […]

Updates Galore! – at the end of post A very interesting study is out from a left wing think tank that may have the explanation for why the polls are all skewed to Obama compared to what people see as a Romney surge on the ground and nationally. It has to do with a migration […]

Update: Hmmm, This is interesting: The first post-presidential debate poll in critical Ohio shows that Mitt Romney blunted President Obama’s momentum with his winning performance and is now leading the president among Ohioans who say that they are “certain” to vote. Overall, the race is deadlocked with Obama over Romney 50 percent to 49 percent, […]

Update: Sean Trende at RCP does a similar form of analysis, gets similar answer. Update: Those not seeing the wave are blinded by denial – so says The Hill. And The Hotline concurs. Update: Read the analysis and then come back and check out this Hillbuzz rumor about moderate Democrats energized to vote straight GOP […]

There is a lot of speculation on what the turnout model is going to be this election cycle. Will it be like 2008 with high Democrat turnout? Will it be like 1994 with high GOP turnout? Or will it be something brand new – a wave of voter anger fueled by the centrists and Tea […]

If the early voting trends are a hint of what is to come on Tuesday then the news is not great for Obama. In Wisconsin (deep blue normally) early voting is up – across the board. It is up by 25% in democrat heavy big cities, and up 40-50% in GOP havens outside the cities: […]

For those interested in an expert opinion on early voting and polling drop by DJ Drummond today.

.. about early voting trends and exit polls can be found at the NY Times Caucus Blog.

Early voting patterns are showing two things – lots of voters are coming out, and many more are ‘democrats’. Here is a list of stories that show that early voting trends are indicating record voter turnout – which cannot be solely due to Democrats in the end. But the message is clear – if you […]