Nov 08 2005
Prediction: Kilgore and Forrestor
That’s my story from way back and I am sticking to it. Rep sweep in NJ and VA Governors.
In VA Kilgore 51, Kaine 47, Potts 2.
In NJ 51-49 Forrestor.
UPDATE:
BTW, if anyone is worried about the last minute polls – people need to know the details. Apparently there is a last minute shift to Kilgore in VA.
Interviews in the Virginia governor’s race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor’s Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days — Saturday, Sunday and today Monday — are averaged, Kaine’s lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days — Sunday and today Monday — are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data.
I with you on Kilgore but if Forrester wins it’s going to be by an even closer margin–49-49 with that other 2% voting for Donald Duck because they can’t stand either and the fraction going to Forrester. One thing in Forrester’s favor this morning is a Giuliani add they’re blanketing with–I’m not in the state but we’re part of their media market so we see those adds.
Here’s hoping–that would be a huge boon for the Republicans in ’08 and if we could just get that joker a little to the west in ’06…
I’m going to disagree with you on the Forrester/Corzine race. It’s been too close to call, but I think Corzine will pull it out because the voter demographics simply don’t help Forrester (11-9 registered dems to registered reps). It might come down to which side manages to get their vote out, and Corzine has the benefit of the Democratic machine. I hope Forrester pulls it out because NJ politics is a complete and utter mess, but it’s an uphill battle.
Also, expect suits to be filed on all the absentee ballots submitted this year regardless of the outcome because of a finding that the state failed to cull the dead from the voter rolls for years on end.