Nov 04 2008

My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated

Published by at 9:25 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions


Get Out And Vote!

Update: When you read the link below (here again) I want folks to notice how Obama and the liberal dems actually increased the conservative intensity across many instances of insulting and demeaning the very voters they needed to sit home, not ‘walk across broken glass’ to vote:

In 2008, there are more phenomenons of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ than I have ever seen…

-Conservatives believe the media has been outrageously fawning over Obama and doing everything it can to protect him. This has enraged them even more than in 2004.

-Obama’s comment of people in rural areas were nothing more than ‘bitter clingers’ who cling to guns and religion have caused lingering outrage at him. This comment, alone, is one reason why Pennslyvania turned on him.

-The Bail-Out Bill enraged many and was when conservatives finally abandoned Bush. But Bush is not on the ticket anymore so that doesn’t matter. Rather, the enragement is aimed at Pelosi and Reid, the leaders of the House and Senate.

-Media treatment of Sarah Palin generated many ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ and even overlapped to the Hillary Clinton supporters.

-Joe the Plumber. At first, Joe the Plumber recieved much amusement and delight of the electorate since it was funny to watch the presidential candidates refer to some citizen and even talk directly to ‘him’ on the camera. After the debate, naturally the press put up photos of the ‘conversation’ between Joe and Obama in amusement as well (amusement in how this citizen somehow ended up as the topic in the third debate). Then, Obama and Biden mocked joe the Plumber and said plumbers could never earn $250,000, and this followed with news came out about Joe’s salary, his marriage, his driver’s license, his taxes, his lack of a plumber’s license, and him ultimately being fired by the plumbing union. This enraged people like I have never seen before. Joe the Plumber became the ‘John Galt’ icon. I heard stories of visible Obama supporters being rattled by this such as SoCal voters peeling off their bumper stickers and uprooting their Obama signs.

At one McCain rally, that man who screamed, “I’M ANGRY! I’M REALLY ANGRY!!!” is a microcosm of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. It is the reason why, now, the blood red Utah has people rushing to the early voting polls. In Texas, an army of pick-up trucks have descended upon the polls. Much of the interest in early voting, which is exceeding 2004 levels, is being mistaken as enthused support for Obama. But it is likely that it is ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ which exist in both Democrat and Republican parties. This white hot intensity of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ has not, and cannot, be measured with standard measures (how can a poll detect passion? It cannot).

This guy is the next Karl Rove … if he wants to be.

Update: A very optimistic assessment for McCain-Palin:

In my second post about the election, I told you to keep an eye on Iowa for if Obama comes back here, a state he should have locked at this time, he is toast. Well, Obama is back in Iowa which means he is toast. If it is competitive in Iowa (it was very competitive in 2004), that means that McCain is running as well as Bush or better and has FL, CO, IN, NC, OH, NH, and VA all comfortable. McCain going to Maine suggests Obama is performing worse than Kerry or, rather, Obama’s support is ’soft’ among Democrats.

I saw an interesting bit of simple math to explain the power of Democrat (PUMA) defections. Assume 10 Reps and 10 dems are locked in a tight battle (50-50%). Then all of a sudden 2 dems jump ship to the GOP side to make the sides 12-8, or 60%-40%. The point being is defections hurt more than adding or subtracting independents. PUMAs are the key, and if they turned out in large numbers Obama could really be toast.

Major Update: McCain’s internal polls show massive move in the battleground states. They see a long night but a win. No need to put this out if they felt they were losing IMHO.

I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.

Update: I wonder what would happen if the highly democrat-leaning exit polls showed a serious problem for Obama??  Just thinking out loud folks! Turnout seems to be very heavy, which should require large numbers left and right to achieve, nulling any supposed Obama edge in intensity and turnout. Would the exit polls be the first glimpse of this? I would love to hear some hint of what they are showing (as you all would I suspect).

Update: Well we now know there was no Democrat turnout edge in CO’s early voting. Seems the anti Obama forces were able to neutralize it there with 50% of the registered voters participating. Looks like Obama might have fallen flat there.

Update: Watch PA and VA today. If turnout is as high as it sounds to be then McCain-Palin could be in the process of a major upset. Check out this anecdotal evidence from PA. No solid news yet from Virginia, will update when it comes in.

Update: Wow, could this be the surprise poll of the year? GWU/Battleground has the race under 2% when they allocate undecideds (this is a two page PDF, make sure to scroll the second page)!

Update: Hey folks, if you go out and vote give us all a little report on your area and the turnout. You are the eyes of the country right now. I am heading out to vote soon too, so if your comment gets held up be patient – will release it as soon as I get back.

Update: It’s official, turnout is massive and probably historic. What this means is those expectations of a huge Dem edge in turnout may be the fantasy many of us said it was. Will the liberals be in shock tonight? If The Surge of McCain-Palin supporters show up I believe are out there, there will be a totally new meaning on the left for the phrase “shock and awe”. 

Update: Folks, keep watching the top of thius post throughout the day, it will cover any important updates (minus the first at the bottom with the video). OK, Obi-wan Kenobi speaks and says the Force may be with us! That being the force of equal or greater numbers and intensity.

Update: Excellent news from VA. High turnout will neutralize any Dem edge. I am feeling confident this state is in McCain’s camp. Plus other great news from across the nation! – end update

I have no idea how tomorrow will turn out. The state polls showed a tightening race, but national polls drifted back towards Obama after tightening late last week. Voter turnout has been huge, but the new voters Obama needs are not showing up. And then there is this tidbit about polls and how Democrats and Conservatives respond.

The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.

What goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls. I think there is a possibly an equal, or maybe greater, wave of McCain-Palin supporters as compared to Obama’s support that the polls are simply not seeing because these voters are running silent. I think the wrong direction vote is aimed at the entire Political Industrial Complex – of which pollsters and the news media are a part. And there are many Americans who would never engage with these groups. For example:

1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.

2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?

3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues” were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters” block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.

So here goes my hesitant prediction which I cannot back up and wouldn’t bet a nickel over.

If I am right I see McCain keeping FL, NC, VA, OH, IN, NV, and MO Red. WV, SD, MT AR and AZ also stay red.

The big surprise is PA goes red this year (it was within 2% in 2004). This would give McCain a 286-252 win in the Electoral College. I think it is even possible McCain picks up MN or CO – which could raise the McCain-Palin victory to 305-233 (plus maybe one in Maine). This is the range I hope to see McCain win by tomorrow.

I have no clue if it will turn out that way. But if everyone who supports McCain-Palin, or opposes Obama, gets out and votes, then they can prove me right!

Update: Some very optimistic and positive news from McCain camp (H/T Gateway Pundit)


Get Out And Vote!


76 responses so far

76 Responses to “My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated”

  1. kittymyers says:

    I contributed twice to Russell.

  2. crosspatch says:

    I just voted. They pulled an interesting “switcharoo” this year. The traditional polling place for my precinct, a middle school two blocks away, is today the polling place for two neighboring precincts. In order to vote, I had to travel to a high school in a neighboring precinct (whose voters are voting today in my precinct). I thought it interesting because my precinct includes a lot of older people. The polling place they sent us to has no nearby parking. You must park on the street and walk about a block and a half deep inside the campus of the high school to vote.

    I have a feeling that many of the seniors are going to get lost or give up.

  3. sophiesmom says:

    I drove past my polling place this morning while taking my daughter to work. I live in a very Red district in a very Red state! Folks, Republicans are turning out! There was over an hour wait, so I’m going back as soon as I finishing teaching my second class.

    My daughter wants me to wait until after her Art class at 4:15, but I don’t want to be there for all the 5:00 people1

    So, I’m going around 2:30. Don’t you dare sit this out. This election is about Turn Out. so, Turn out, Turn out, Turn out the vote for McCain/Palin!

  4. crosspatch says:

    I sincerely believe we can pull this out if we get to the poll and cast a ballot. If you know a service member that is home on leave and they didn’t cast a ballot, get them down to the polling place to cast a provisional ballot. I believe that over the past month I have been able to convince one person who was going to sit out the election to go to the polls today.

    Part of that was due to articles and references linked to from this and other sites. Bloggers are playing a significant role in educating the public and it might not be just people directly visiting the site. Blogs have furnished a great wealth of information and people have been informing their friends and neighbors.

    Whatever the outcome today, make sure you have your say. To me the choice is clear. I voted for the capitalist.

  5. ivehadit says:

    JMGAR, do you think they will be voting republican in CG? I used to live in the Grove…

    Praying the Cubans bring in McCain for us! The, imho, communists MUST be defeated!

  6. pjo says:

    My wife and I voted absentee yesterday in Michigan, there was a steady stream of people coming into vote. My area use to be pretty red but a lot of the Reds are leaving the area because of the personnel cuts at the Big Three Automotives.

  7. Phil-351 says:

    I got in line here in Lawrenceville, GA at 5:15a for a 7:00a poll opening. And, there were at least 30 people in front of me. Once open, though, the line went fairly briskly, and I was waiting for a booth at 7:30a. At 7:37a, I was at the car, votes casted.

    I noticed at 7:00a, the line was around the corner of the building. When I left at 7:37, the line was an estimated 200+ people deep, with more arriving and getting in line.

    An officer arrived just as I was leaving to do traffic control, but the crowd was pretty peaceful and friendly. People were parking all over, since there were not enough for a crowd this large. And traffic was getting bad, mixing voters with commuters on a busy road. I think the officer will need back-up!:)

  8. jmgarciajr says:


    Coral Gables is traditionally pretty 50-50. That said, I’ve noticed a sharp surge in McC-P lawn signs and the like in the last week or so.

  9. edray1 says:

    Pennsylvania, Chester County. Tredyffrin Township
    Precinct M-2. Huge early turnout. Largest I have
    ever seen. Cannot tell party breakdown yet.

  10. grumpyguy says:

    Reporting from Green Township, Oh (western suburb of Cincinnati).

    At 11 am, 400 of 1150 people in my precinct had voted.

    Green Township is very conservative. In 2004, my precinct voted 360 for Bush, 40 Kerry if that gives you any idea…..

    Anyway, no lines, took 5 minutes to vote…

  11. Terrye says:

    It was very busy when I voted this morning here in southern Indiana. The thing about the poll mentioned above is that while Obama has a lead, it is very small and it points to Obama winning the popular vote, but he might lose the electoral vote.

  12. ivehadit says:

    JMG, I had that feeling… 🙂

    I wonder what my Jewish friends are doing in Miami….It’s just hard for me to believe that ANY of them would vote for the o…

    What about those Black Panthers???
    SHAME ON THE MEDIA FOR NOT REPORTING *THIS* group of o “friends”…

  13. sbd says:

    Hi AJ,

    I voted Absentee on Friday here in San Diego. As I am sure you are aware, it hardly ever rains here in San Diego,but today being election day, it is pouring rain outside. I hope this doesn’t deter the “fair weather” San Diego citizens from voting, we have a proposition to ban gay marriage on the ballot today as well.

    PS. Can someone try to answer my previous question above regarding ACORN and the polls??


  14. AJStrata says:


    Can you repeat the question? I here San Diego saw enormous turnout, and it more conservative than LA and SF.

  15. sbd says:

    Hi AJ,

    I don’t know about the large turnout just yet as it is only 11:00 A.M., but it is pouring rain which is very rare.

    Here is the question:

    I heard someone call into the Roger Hedgecock show today saying that the reason the polls are so far off is due to the ACORN voter registrations. He says that by increasing the number of new voters that are registered Democrat, this changes the polling numbers in their favor to make it look as if they are in the lead. Can you explain if this is true and exactly how it would work in the Dems favor regarding the poll numbers??



  16. Linda78 says:

    I voted Wed. in Palm Beach County. I waited 2 hours and there were a lot of elderly voters. Today my family voted and had no lines.

  17. jmgarciajr says:

    Just got a call (i.e. this is anecdotal) that, in the Kendall area of Miami, the voting wait times are in the 90-120 minute range.

  18. AJStrata says:


    In those polls that use voter registration as the basis for party affiliation then, yes to a minor degree they would shift the numbers.

    But the real sin is expecting 2-3 times the historic edge for the dems ever seen.

  19. KauaiBoy says:

    Sounds like this democracy thing is really taking off—-can only hope it lasts into the future with people getting informed and involved, regardless of the outcome what doesn’t kill us will make us stronger!!

    No wait this AM before work in Northern NJ. Saw an even mix of McCain and Obama signs along the roadways but much fewer than previous years and again very few bumper stickers. A few winks passed between myself and other voters as we entered and exited.

    Can only hope the Redskins loss last night fails to predict the winner (17 out of 17—-time to hit for average guys).

    One question re ACORN: Does the registering of people in any way impact the districting/allocation of political favors? You might not get to vote but if these records are used for any other decisions, well you know the rest.

  20. rayabacus says:


    I just got back to the office. Yeah, I was pretty startled this AM too, as I was hearing radio reports of long lines at polling places on both sides of the state line. I don’t worry too much about KS as the only blue part is douglas county.

    One co-worker waited for an hour this morning to vote, but that was in a somewhat upscale downtown precinct, another waited about 30 minutes in Lee’s Summit (red suburb) and the radio has a lot of anecdotal evidence of both…long lines and no lines.