Nov 02 2008

Is This Some Kind Of Joke? McCain Landslide?

Published by at 1:25 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Is McCain heading towards a landslide? Is Obama going to lose New Jersey and California?

Well if you believe this audio then this is what internal GOP polls are saying. A blogger pulled out the salient numbers:

  • New Jersey: McCain leads 48 to 43, with 7% undecided.
  • Michigan: McCain leads 44 to 42, with 10% undecided.
  • California: Obama leads 44 to 43, with 9/% undecided, 3% for Barr.
  • Pennsylvania: McCain leads 55 to 33, with 10% undecided. In Pennsylvania Obama only leads among Democrats by 47 to 37, with 14% undecided.

One thing that has bothered me in many of the polls is the hidden allocation of leaners. This is totally up to the polling company to determine. For example, look at the Hotline poll for today which shows a reversal for Obama of 2% since yesterday, especially this nugget:

Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates’ images, partisan identification and demographics, “Refused” responses in the head-to-head question were assigned either to Obama, McCain or Undecided.

Based on other data this pollster selected who the  people being interviewed would vote for? Right. If you look at those alleged GOP internal numbers above they don’t try to allocate leaning or undecided voters. If the pollsters are bumping up Obama’s firm numbers with fuzzy ones then you can get a reversal of the lead.

Do I believe this? It is possible – depending on how the pollsters fill out their turnout models and allocate leaners. It would be amazing if true. So I am skeptical at this moment, and there is no way I would put my hopes in this. But someone’s poll numbers are way out of whack.

13 responses so far

13 Responses to “Is This Some Kind Of Joke? McCain Landslide?”

  1. crosspatch says:

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all if that were true, AJ. As I have repeated several times, I am seeing no general groundswell of support in my area of California for Obama like I did for Gore and Kerry. It just isn’t there. And proposition 8 on the ballot here has moderates and conservatives fired up. It is vote to change the state constitution to define marriage as one man and one woman. There are “yes on 8” signs by the dozens and people who vote yes on 8 are likely to vote for McCain rather than Obama.

    See, here is a major difference:

    In past elections, Republicans knew they were outnumbered here and there was a lot of apathy. And there really wasn’t a whole lot of difference between the Democrat and Republican candidate except maybe with tax policy. Now here we have basically a radical socialist running under the cover of the Democrat party. The guy is a Marxist. There is a HUGE difference this time. Obama said in SF that he wants to bankrupt the coal industry. That is HUGE.

    A McCain landslide would not surprise me in the least. No pollers have called my house in about three months. I don’t know who they are calling but they seem to be calling the same people over and over because if the number of polls out (something like 20 times the number of polls last election) then we should all be getting called weekly at this point.

  2. Phineas says:

    AJ, you’re just doing this to tease me with audacious hope, aren’t you? 😀

    (I would laugh so long and loud to see California flip for McCain…)

  3. Terrye says:

    I have a hard time believing this, but then again when polls are 10 points apart and claiming a 3 point margin of error, something is obviously screwy with the polls. I wonder….

  4. robert c verdi says:

    Maybe, but as for New Jersey, the government is dominated by a democrat machine and crooked to boot. They live off Atlantic City and more then once the system has almost been overturned. This cycle? I will believe it when I see it.

  5. WWS says:

    All I know for sure is that every poll by every pollster is pure crap.

  6. Don’t tease me like this…

    Via AJ Strata, a blogger posted an audio file from a Pennsylvania radio station that claims it has internal GOP polling data indicating a possible McCain landslide. Check out these numbers: New Jersey: McCain leads 48 to 43, with 7%……

  7. MerlinOS2 says:

    Rule to follow on election day.

    Do NOT believe what the exit polls say no matter what. There are too many was to bogus them up with Obots spamming the exit poll people.

    Even if they are claiming Mc has a sure lock on the win by 50% ignore it and still vote no matter what you hear…don’t say well it’s a lock I can kick back and not vote.

    Vote to be sure and be sure to vote!

  8. crosspatch says:

    Well MerlinOS2, I don’t think anyone is going to cast their vote according to what the polls say and frankly, I don’t understand all the hoopla of the polling this year. What difference do they make, it will be what it is and polling forecasts don’t change how people actually vote. The polls are so out of whack that no matter what you want you can find a poll that validates it. I am surprised there isn’t a poll showing Ron Paul winning someplace.

    Day after day we see posts here about the polls. For what purpose? I don’t think it is going to impact people’s vote or decision to vote either way. The pollsters are just too full of themselves. A lot of money and time and effort are being spent in something that really doesn’t matter. An opinion poll provides exactly zero information on which to base one’s vote. I suppose it is a natural tendency for people to want to know how their favorite candidate is doing but the fact is that other than early voting, they haven’t done anything yet and won’t until Tuesday. The only poll that matters is that one.

    The news media are using polls to create news out of whole cloth. It really isn’t news because nobody was ever elected to office by an opinion poll taken before the election. The polls are all over the place, from tied to Obama up 10+. It is all fog and if you pay attention to it, it just creates more “stuff” to think about and wear people out. The good thing about information overload of this sort is one can choose to unplug from it. If your mind is made up, why even pay any attention to it?

    It will all start over again on Tuesday with incorrect exit polls, reversed projections of winners in various states, etc. We will know on Wednesday morning and nothing would suit me better than to see an arrogant, narcissistic Barack Obama lose.

  9. jmgarciajr says:

    The more polling I see, the more convinced I am the polls are being used as an instrument for the suppression of the turnout of Republican voters. A dispirited voter generally stays home (“Why bother, if my candidate will lose by a zillion points?”) and that is the one thing that has propelled every successful Democrat candidacies since I have been old enough to pay attention.

    For whatever reason, Republicans tend to stay home more often. Maybe they are mad at their leadership (cf. 2006) or maybe they are so underwhelmed by their nominee (cf. 1996) that they don’t bother. However, when they do show up, out of fed-upness (cf. 1994) or fear/anger (cf. 1980) they do tend to come out in numbers which dwarf projections, and the results this brings are astonishing and surprising.

  10. clintsf says:

    Wow. If NJ and California are really that close, it’s going to be a McCain blow-out.

    I don’t quite believe that… but who knows. California could be a bit skewed by Proposition 8…

    I do think Obama supporters and the talking heads are going to be shocked Tuesday evening — and I’m really looking forward to it.

  11. ivehadit says:

    Could it be a clintonian moment on Tues? For once, I have to say I am praying that Hillary will help bring this home. Lynn Rothschild, I hope you are the surprise factor of this race!

  12. Birdalone says:

    New Jersey makes sense to me. Lautenberg’s polling has been weak all along, Corzine’s approval is something he doesn’t want to admit to, and New Jersey has a lot of ethnic Catholics, 7% of actual voters are Jewish, and a lot of Investors. McCain’s phone banking New Jersey, there are 2 or 3 very competitive open CDs. Hey, Tony Soprano is a Republican. Plus, Newark has been a drain on taxpayers for 40 years. The property taxes are a killer.

    I’ve already posted about my theory that New York may go for McCain based on very active GOP to hold State Senate everywhere outside of NYC, even more ethnic Catholics, 13% of actual voters are Jewish, even more Investors than NJ. Carter lost New York by 244,000 votes in 1980 and Dukakis only won New York by 300,000 votes in 1988. Absolutely no Obama GOTV activity, and no sign the Dem machine is lifting a finger. Obama supporters are tearing Charlie Rangel’s face off his campaign posters because Rangel supported Hillary in the primary. Remember that McCain supporter who was assaulted on 9/15/08 with her McCain sign? That was midtown Manhattan.

    I also think Connecticut is in play because three of their five CDs are very competitive, Gov. Jodi Rell is very popular, and Lieberman proved he has a network that works. Even more Investors in CT.

    California would not surprise me either, but I do not know the demographics the way I do the tri-state. Massachusetts’ Gov. Patrick was Axelrod’s test run, and Patrick is below 45% approval. Obama will win Vermont, but Maine is also in play.

    Perhaps the left wing associations have been noticed by low information voters.

    Plus maybe everyone has been hearing Sarah Palin’s speeches this past week. She’s terrific on energy security. And McCain is inspiring. SNL was a great move.

  13. JimCap says:

    I hope this is right. I also hope that I’ll win the lottery next week. A fantasy world—however appealing—is a dangerous place to live.

    Anyone who thinks McCain is leading in New Jersey and Michigan is either not very bright, or delusional, or thinks people are pretty stupid.