Sep 23 2008

Is California In Play?

Published by at 10:29 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

OK, this would be a stretch and a shocker to the dems, but there seems to be some indications CA may fall into the battleground state category:

But Republicans aren’t giving up on California. California Republican Party chief operating officer Bill Christiansen said some private polls put the two candidates within five points of each other, and the McCain campaign is staffing 50 offices throughout the state. Four years ago, the Bush-Cheney campaign barely had a presence in California, and spent little money. “But we are fully funded this time,” Christiansen said, declining to give a figure.

The state GOP is making 125,000 voter contacts every weekend, “which blows the doors off of what we were doing four years ago,” said Christiansen. “Sarah Palin has put a shot of energy into this race.”

A look at the RCP trend for CA doesn’t show any movement – but the polling is too sparse to tell. However, if we look at the last three PPIC polls we see +17 (May), +15 (July) and +9 (August). That does show a McCain trend.  I am wondering if they will be putting out a September poll?

Rassmussen has +28 (July), +10 (June) and +13 (Aug), pretty much cutting Obama’s lead in half.  We shall see.

6 responses so far

6 Responses to “Is California In Play?”

  1. crosspatch says:

    I live in California, I will be voting for McCain. And judging from the number of “W” stickers on the cars in the neighborhood, I am not the only one.

  2. MerlinOS2 says:

    Pollster holds it 52/37 in Obama’s favor and slightly opening but the troubling part is the undecided numbers look to be very high for this stage in the race in Ca.

    You normally see them totally committed to the Dem column by now.

  3. gwood says:

    We will not win California. No hockey moms. Look for Minnesota and Wisconsin, (lots of hockey moms) to be red on Nov 5.

    Palin’s in the crease……..she SCOOORRRES!!!!!

  4. crosspatch says:

    Interesting you say that, gwood. California regularly elects Republican governors. Reagan came from California. The last Democrat in the Governor’s mansion was kicked out of office by a vote of the people in a recall election.

    Take a look at a county-by-county voting map in 2000 and 2004. MOST of California counties are red. Only the counties that touch the Pacific are blue, practically ALL the rest are red.

  5. VinceP1974 says:

    only the counties that have people in them are blue

  6. Wayne at Jeremiah Films says:

    I live in an area which is as much red as San Fransisco is blue.

    Here is the problem for the polls, who is going to show? The state could go either red (Arnold) or blue (Davis) depending on how you answer that question. Prop 8 could pass or fail depending on how you answer that question. The pollsters don’t have an answer for that question but if I were to presume to know the answer, people who would vote for McCain will be showing up in higher numbers.