Sep 05 2008

The Obidenama Poll Crash Is Beginning – Updated

Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll has also detected the loss of the Obidenama convention bounce I predicted yesterday was coming when I saw the CBS/NY Times poll.  From a 5 point lead Obidenama have fallen to a 2 point lead today (with more to come I am sure). What is interesting are some of the internals in the Rasmussen poll, which indicate to me this fall is not yet played out:

Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama’s bounce. Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Both Obama and McCain are now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters (see trends). However, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58%–a point more than either Presidential hopeful. Forty percent (40%) have a Very Favorable opinion of her.

Emphasis mine. The nation is rallying around Palin, and giving McCain kudos for his bold selection. This poll still has at least one day (maybe two) of data prior to Palin’s Wednesday night speech. My guess is in the next two days there is a strong chance Obidenama may actually fall behind McCain-Palin, which will be a disaster for the Dems. They need to be 5-9% points ahead to have any hope on November 4th.

If things go as I suspect they will, then the question will be how much damage the Palin selection and the vicious liberal response has down ticket. Remember that the Dem Congress approval ratings are in the tank right now, and America may be very much in the mood to give the Mavericks some fresh blood in Congress to see what they can pull off. We all know that for McCain-Palin to succeed we need to clean house in the Political Industrial Complex inside DC. That includes both pols and the news media and professional talking heads and consultants. A good Congressional blood bath would be a wake up call to DC that they are working on borrowed time as far as “We The People” are concerned.

I am eagerly awaiting the Gallup Daily numbers, which I will update when they come out.

Update: As expected as the initial numbers come in from the Palin speech the Obama edge is dropping rapidly. Gallup shows Obama’s one time 8 point post convention bounce also cut in half, now at 4 points. If this is just the beginning of a trend, by Saturday the Gallup numbers will have numbers that reflect most of the poll shift (depending on whether it is a jump to a new equilibrium or a longer term slide).

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “The Obidenama Poll Crash Is Beginning – Updated”

  1. MarkN says:

    The Rasmussen Poll seems to be more stable than the Gallup poll because of his use of leaners. Also, Rasmussen uses his party affiliation for his sample design. I suspect that McCain/Palin will do better when Scott’s August party affiliation numbers are final and included in the poll because I believe you will see a closing of the gap between dem and rep.

    Rasmussen only had Obama ahead by six at the apex. They didn’t have the kind of spike that Gallup had which I think is due to better quality control on the composition of Scott’s sample. The strength of party affiliation could also become a weakness if it is off materially. However, Scott Rasumssen seems to be very accurate in his party affiliation surveys. I think that the September party affiliation numbers will prove whether Palin has had any effect in this race. And they won’t be out until October. However, her favorable ratings are a good sign.

    The best number I see in the Rasmussen Poll is that McCain has reached 45% without leaners which for the most part he has been stuck in the low 40s. It suggests that he is firming up his support. Now if only Palin can get those amnesty hypos to get behind retroactive immigration reform then maybe the Rep will have a fighting chance with hispanics and Asians. Whose votes they will need down ticket.

    More on the Asian effect later.

  2. Duhize says:

    What the Rasmussen poll means is that Obama averaged a 5 point lead over 3 days – since it went down to 2 points in 1 day that means mccain was leading the third day by at least 4 points. If that holds Obama and the whole dem party will implode. I think Sarah Palin also has helped the GOP on the congressional level. The hateful left may be in for there worst nightmare… a loss in November – which after all the lies and hateful things they have done and said would serve them right.

  3. Redteam says:

    when the full effect of both Palin’s speech and McCains speeches are included, I think the Dems are gonna be in full fledged panic. That’s why I think Obama consented to go on O’Reilly, much as Hillary did when she started to realize it was game over.
    I’ve never thought McCain was a good speaker, well, I watched his entire speech last night and it was great. He hit all the spots and hit them well. While it was a prepared speech, it almost seemed off the cuff and that’s what he’s best at. I’m actually beginning to feel as if the Repubs have a chance to win in Nov and maybe the coattails will be good and Congress may not be a big disaster.

  4. Terrye says:

    I think the Democrats and the media outsmarted themselves.

    The idiots.