Jan 03 2008

The Great GOP Divide Opens In Iowa And New Hampshire

Published by at 9:23 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

What an interesting night to see the flaming purity wars in action in the GOP. Recall that the Iowa Caucuses are the party stalwarts, so you are not seeing what governing coalition would represent, you are seeing the battle inside the GOP. Assuming the numbers hold up through the night we have Huckabee with 31%, Romney 23%, Thompson 13%, McCain 12%, Paul 10%, and Giuliani 4% (41% reporting). Let’s just toss Paul out because he is just not credible. We have centrist conservatives in Romney, McCain, Thompson and Giuliani. We have Huckabee representing the hard core social conservatives who now hate the word ‘compromise’ and are tough on immigrants. If we add up those moderates verses hard right we could be seeing a split of 31-52 with the moderates leading.

The fact is there is a split in the GOP that looks like it cannot be mended. This split will be emphasized on Monday when NH will hand the top slots to the moderates and deal Huckabee a huge loss. Once the winnowing takes place among McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Thompson I think the far right is going to find itself in the minority and having to make a decision between a moderate conservative or letting the Dem take full control of the Federal Government and surrender to al-Qaeda. This is where this choice is heading. Will it be Unity for America or Purity for the Far Right? I still think Giuliani will be the one standing in the end, but I will support him or Romney. Huckabee is probably out of the question – he is just too incompetent.

But the general point is this. Tonight the stalwarts had their say. Monday the general population will speak and it will be totally opposite of what we see in Iowa.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “The Great GOP Divide Opens In Iowa And New Hampshire”

  1. AJ, I am glad to see you have re-considered Romney.

    For me, it’s very difficult. It seems there is a strong segment of the GOP that has said, “No Mormons need apply.”

    For all intents and purposes, that’s a big deal. We just saw a two-bit hack beat someone with a far better resume by using the politics of religious identity. And it will be used in South Carolina as well. Why? Because it works.

    The purists can blackmail the GOP. I think I’ll be joining you as an independent in the near future. It’s obvious folks like us aren’t wanted.

  2. kathie says:

    AJ what about Fred. I really like him, but could vote for Romney or Rudy.

  3. AJStrata says:


    I am good with any of the moderate centrists. I worry about Thompson’s and McCain’s electability – but that won’t stop my support.

    I am fine with Romney too, I just think he has stumbled. NH will set the stage for the next chapter. It will not be anything like Iowa for the GOP.

  4. ivehadit says:

    Great post, AJ. I think Rudy will be the man standing when this is over. One interesting thing I saw tonight was an interview with Rollins of the Huckabee campaign with Chris Wallace. Rollins was attacking Rudy with what I consider intellectually dishonest statements. He was real angry, hardly let Chris get a word in edgewise. Telltale sign that the Huck campaign is seeing Rudy as the man to beat.

    Bring it on Rollins! Rush is gonna take Huck out with one fell swoop…and Huck won’t even know what happened. Reason: Huck is NOT presidential material. We don’t need another slick from Hope, Arkansas, trust me.

    I am praying daily for the safety of my America, the Beautiful. Obama, Hill or Johnnie not wanted.

  5. Terrye says:

    I think McCain can win a national election, but I am not sure he can win the nomination. And AJ for heavens sake stop talking about Huckabee like he is some Tancredo, the truth is he is the opposite. He is a moderate who appeals to a religious base. He is not Ron Paul. I don’t think he can win Super Tuesday, but for the life of me I do not know why people think Huckabee is some sort of rightie purist. After all he is not the guy who got the NRO endorsement.

  6. AJStrata says:


    Huck is the anti-Rudy, anti-moderate candidate. I know conservatives who claim if Rudy wins the nomination they would vote for Hillary.

    There is a group out there, social conservatives, who hate Giuliani. They have bought into the idea he will set back social conservatism, just like they over reacted to Harriet Miers.

    The difference between the moderates and the far right is the moderates respect people’s right to have a different opinion from them and will stand by them on issues they agree. Sadly the far right doesn’t reciprocate, which is why Michael Savage rants on about cretins and Michelle calls them drag queens.

    I am not Huck was one of them, I was pointing out he is the latest preference from the “anybody but Rudy-McCain-Romney” crowd.

  7. han_solo says:

    >There is a group out there, social conservatives, who hate Giuliani.

    There is also a large group of republicans left that still know what ‘conservative’ REALLY MEANS…small federal government, obeying10th amendment, etc..and we HATE Rommney, Huck, and all the other big-government, compassionate socialist-LITE candiates the GOP leadership keeps providing.

    It seems that the requirements to be a republican president is:

    5 Parts Liberal Socialist
    1 Part Pro-Life
    1 Part Religious
    1 Part Pro-War
    1 Part Pro-Gun

    THAT IS WHY the republican party is SPLITTING, because most of the GOP blessed candidates would have been mainstream democrat presidents just a few years ago and there apparently is no real republican party left, just 2 socialist parties.

  8. AJStrata says:


    Somehow Solo you don’t seem to be following the 10th commandment. Purity or Unity (i.e., governing). Take your pick and learn to deal with people who disagree with you better.

    There are no alliances made out of spite and anger for the allies. If you lose your case on some issues then you lose – don’t blame others. It was YOUR case you lost.

  9. VinceP1974 says:

    “Take your pick and learn to deal with people who disagree with you better.”

    Yeah Solo.. you should have told all those folks you disagree with to write their own blog.

  10. AJStrata says:

    Now, now Vince,

    I meant if reading my views was so hard you should start your own blog. A blogger recommending someone start a blog is a compliment you know.

  11. VinceP1974 says:

    Thanks 🙂

    If I had time to devote to it I would.. But by the time i get home from typing all day, its the last thing I want to do.

    I respect you guys who can do this everyday and cause me to spend the time I should be working reading your stuff.