Nov 30 2006

What Is Known Regarding The Litvinenko Incident

Major Update: BTW, this story has two plausible story lines because the driving assumption behind this media theory is that the only transport mechanism was bodily fluids from Litvinenko. If Litvinenko had particulate contamination on his body or clothes or whatever, all the evidence in the Hotel room would make Litvinenko the source of the contamination, which he passed onto the Russians he met in the Hotel Bar. This is what I mean by speculating beyond what we know. And what we need to know is what the timeline actually is, since now I am seeing reports that the Russian meeting at the Hotel preceded the Sushi Bar meeting with Scaramella. And we still have no placement of who contaminated Berezovsky’s offices – and when. Now we have reporting from the not so believable Independent that the Sushi Bar was the original site of poisoning – not the Hotel. Seems like the media has totally lost it on all these scientific and forensic details.

Major Update: OK, one more item to throw into the pot. We have more than one transport mechanism. One is Litvinenko himself. He could have transported it externally or internally. I think the evidence shows both with the contamination being from something on him instead coming out of him (bodily fluids – see #10 below). But authorities are now confirming the obvious – someone else was a second transporter of the contamination.

Security sources have told The Times that some of the 12 locations where traces of radioactivity have been found were never visited by Litvinenko. It is thought that an office at 58 Grosvenor Street and the Sheraton Park Lane hotel were used by one of three Russians understood to be key suspects in the investigation. Counter-terrorist detectives are tracing their movements. Special Branch officers have studied CCTV footage to spot them among passengers at Heathrow. The suspects also frequented some of the 12 other places that experts have examined but say are free of any traces of polonium-210.

Passenger seats on BA flights that the men are known to have travelled on in the past five weeks have shown exposure to radioactivity. Experts say it is unlikely that they will be able to say if the polonium-210 found on one jet was left there by a passenger travelling to London or on a return journey.

One possible set of candidates who transported the contamination are the Russians who met with Litvinenko in the Millenium Hotel. Scaramella is another candidate. As is whoever drove Litvinenko to the hospital. But there could be someone who, just like Litvinenko, was contaminated and did not know it – but did not ingest the Polonium-210 accidentally. This could be Berezovsky or anyone with Litvinenko when he was contaminated. – end update

This was a comment to a previous post I decided to make into a post since it establishes some framework that must be adhered to in any speculation. The truth is the media reporting is contradictory with evidence and common sense. The following are elements that must be consistent with any theories or ideas.

First off, there are no traces of contamination prior to the Sushi Bar yet (with the exception of Berezovsky’s offices which may or may not be prior to the Sushi Bar). That means there is not evidence of contamination traces coming into the UK – yet. We know from the Sushi Bar and the Millenium Hotel Bar (and Berezovsy’s office) that contamination was travelling external to Litvinenko’s body. Either through bodily fluids or particulate contamination from the moment he came into contact with the Polonium. Or both.

Timing is everything an you cannot violate the science to come up with theories. So here are the things that must fit into the timelines:

(1) Option 1 is particulate contamination which means the trail starts the minute the carrier moves and the particles start dropping like bread crumbs. The more sites the more bread crumbs required at the point of contamination. This puts physical contamination beginning with the initial contact.

(2) Option 2 is the ingestion of Polonium without any external particulate contamination. This means the only way to contaminate a location is for the Polonium to spend two hours traveling through the body until it starts ‘leaking’ through some bodily fluid. This would put physical contamination 2 hours after contact. Note that bodily fluid transfer could come with DNA material for identifying the carrier.

(3) Option 3 is a combination of 1 and 2. This is where early contamination is purely particulate until the Polonium in the body begins to seap out. Now you get particulate and bodily fluid transfers. This combination could be all Litvinenko or Litvinenko creating the bodily fluid trail and someone else creating the particulate trail.

(4) Forensics will know which site had which form of contamination.

(5) No one who contacted Livtvinenko ingested the Polonium in their body (all clear of contamination so far). However, these people could become a secondary tansfer mechanism by either getting particulate or bodily fluid contamination from Litvinenko.

(6) It is clear one or more of the Russians Litvinenko met in the Millenium Hotel (after the Sushi Bar meeting with Scaramella) were contaminated externally by Litvinenko. This is obvious because Litvinenko was already contaminated before he got to the Millenium Hotel (Sush Bar and Berezovsky’s office visit both predate the Millenium Hotel meeting). The traces found in their rooms, their airplane seat and the overhead bin clearly show clothes picked up the contamination – most likely the jackets worn by the men and placed in the overhead compartments for flight. Contamination on a flight can only be clearly linked to the post contamination period after Nov 1. There MAY be an in-bound contamination, but there is no way to tell.

(7) The farther the contamination spreads the more source material was present during the initial contamination. We just don’t know if it was all ingested or a combination of ingested and particles on something external to Litvinenko.

(8) The particulate contamination may be from Litvinenko or not. Contamination from Litvinenko, even if passed on to someone else, should have some biological tag which could trace to Litvinenko (e.g., DNA).

(9) We need to know when the Berezovsky offices were contaminated. It happened either prior to or after the Sushi Bar event. It is clear they were contaminated prior to the Millenium Hotel meeting with the Russians. Timelines that put the Russian meeting as the first incident are in complete violation of the reported timeline.

(10) The bodily Fluid transmission method is highly UNLIKELY because of what we see at the hospitals – no contamination. Yes, the urine showed the Polonium. But no other traces from the sweat, saliva, etc showed up. This tells me the dose ingested was not large enough to seap far from the stomach and intestines. Also, the internal damage was not systmec. If the radiation was seaping through out the body we would have seen external signs of damage in the pictures of Litvinenko (swollen eyes, etc). But we did not see radiation burning throghout his body. If the ingested dose was small, then the trail of exposure had to come from particles dropping off onto venues and people he contacted. This is key. I do not think from what I have seen right now in the distribution pattern that it shows the contamination trail coming from Litvinenko’s bodily fluids. That means there may be another pool of Polonium out there still.

Here is one scenario that fits all of this. Litvinenko and Berezovsky together get Polonium-210 on themselves externally. Berezovsky goes to his office and contaminates that area. Litvinenko goes off to meet Scaramella and at sometime that day accidentally ingests some of the contamination he has on him – poisoning himself accidentally. He continues to trail Polonium around all day, even into Zayakev’s car which is how Litvinenko is taken to the first hospital. Question: what happened to the contamination on Litvinenko? Did washing his clothes simply flush the Polonium into the sewer system?

People should have fun speculating, but if the theory violates any of these conditions then there should be a really good explanation as to why and some hard evidence to prove it. For example, there is no evidence or reporting showing any contamination on in bound flights. There is only the possibility of contamination on the outbound flight(s) of the Russians Litvinenko met at the Hotel. There is no indication the contamination happened on flights to Moscow or too/from some other city.

Another example: this Guardian story is all rumor and speculation and has no substantiating evidence to makethe theory being proposed any more probable than any other scenario that excludes Russian agents. Until we have something that clearly tips the story down one path or the other it makes no sense to buy into the media hysterics.

33 responses so far

33 Responses to “What Is Known Regarding The Litvinenko Incident”

  1. Lizarde1 says:

    Do you know which buildings are the NINE buildings referred to in article in comments below? The car we know is no. 10 and the two planes are 11 and 12.

  2. Lizarde1 says:

    either the Park Lane was or was not contaminated – conflicting reporting though the latest you posted seems to say it was

  3. For Enforcement says:

    One queston on item 2. Why 2 hours? I would think radiation would go throughout the body in a lot less time. But I’m only guessing by my experience with Thallium when I had a stress test. It went throughout my body( was injected straight into my blood stream) in a lot less that 2 hours.

    But even if it was less than two hours, I don’t think it would affect the following items.

  4. clarice says:

    I’m credibly informed that the CCTV set up in London is extensive and was likely aimed at the Russian Embassy and all the major bldgs involved here. I have a feeling the Brits have a very good tracking on tape of who was where when.

  5. AJStrata says:

    Clarice,

    Agreed, but the CCTV tracking in some reporting sites the Sushi Bar as first and not the Hotel. And until I hear who and when Berezovsky’s offices were contaminated I will not be satisfied. The police are being deliberately vague and non-committal and the press is making things up.

  6. AJStrata says:

    FE,

    you are thinking gamma radiation rays. In the Polonium case the Polonium itself must be secreted since its alpha rays cannot pass through skin. That barrier stops rays from going in, and rays from coming out. That is why in the case of Polonium it must be in a bodily fluid. Digestion is on the order of an hour just to get through the stomach. Also, Polonium disolves in acids (stomach!) but not in other liquids. So it would NOT likely seep across membranes into the blood, etc. until the acide level of the bile dropped down to where it came out of suspension.

    Now you need enough material to disperse and seap through. Anyway, the two plus hours was from reporting in one of the posts.

  7. clarice says:

    AJ–Forget the reporting. I think the Brits are bette than we at keeping their investigations secret and the reporters are using secondary, not very good sources. The CCTV scans must have given them a good idea. And that must have led to the plane scans.It will be interesting to see which Russians turn up permanently missing.

  8. jerry says:

    “Experts say it is unlikely that they will be able to say if the polonium-210 found on one jet was left there by a passenger travelling to London or on a return journey.”

    I don’t agree with this, if a “person of interest” was flying one way and there’s seat contamination – it doesn’t matter if a total stranger was flying on any other leg.

    Still waiting to hear if, by this sort of analysis, any of the contamination occurred before Nov 1.

  9. Lizarde1 says:

    Just remembered = there was a third unknown Russian at the meeting at the Millenium who allegedly L. didn’t know – the three guys there were named Sokolenko, Kovtun and Lugovoy – this article adding to the confusion claims the sushi meeting was before the hotel meeting
    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23376413-details/'Spy'%20radiation%20alert%20for%2033,000%20BA%20passengers/article.do
    Also at the hotel were Dmitri Kovtun and Vyacheslav Sokolenko, Russian business associates of Mr Lugovoy. The men deny involvement. Earlier that day, Mr Litvinenko went to the Itsu sushi restaurant
    from the Russians: Kovtun arrived from Germany the next day. Sokolenko was already in London. All three of them are graduates of the same military academy, worked in state security agencies and became bodyguards.http://www.kommersant.com/p726539/r_527/Alexander_Litvinenko/

  10. Lizarde1 says:

    Soccer stadium also being discussed:
    http://football.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,,1961601,00.html
    Arsenal last night declined to comment in response to suggestions that the club’s Emirates Stadium had been visited by police investigating the poisoning of the former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko.

    And by the way, the timeline per the meeting at 4 pm is being spread and or confirmed? by Lugovoy per a russian account I just read
    All three of them, Lugovoi said, came to London with their families and met to attend a soccer game on November 1. At about 4:00 in the afternoon, before the game, they met with Litvinenko in the lobby of the hotel. Litvinenko came to the hotel to make arrangements with Lugovoi and Kovtun for a meeting with British businessmen the next day, Lugovoi said. Lugovoi said the meeting lasted about 20 minutes.

    Lugovoi and friends had drinks in anticipation of the game and invited Litvinenko to join them, but he declined. Litvinenko did not eat anything either. Lugovoi’s eight-year-old son came into the bar as the meeting was drawing to a close, and Lugovoi introduced him to Litvinenko.

    Lugovoi recounted those details to make it clear that he and his friends were not involved in the poisoning of Litvinenko, if only because the circumstances did not allow them an opportunity.
    http://www.kommersant.com/p726539/r_527/Alexander_Litvinenko/

  11. Lizarde1 says:

    my last two posts haven’t shown up but here’s another interesting article if it goes through – Salon interviews an expert: (reading between the lines L could have been poisoned days or weeks before perhaps????
    http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/12/01/large_litvinenko/

  12. For Enforcement says:

    AJ thanks for the explanation
    Somebody needs to make a movie on this when all the details are known

  13. clarice says:

    lizarde, that’s a wonderful article.Very informative.

  14. Lizarde1 says:

    Before I go to bed here again (didn’t go thru before) is the article I found about the 3 guys who were at the Millenium and on the way to the soccer game – the reporting is coming from a Russian source in London -this source claims the meeting was at 4 per Lugovoy who even claims to have introduced his young son to L. at the meeting – all three guys were graduates of body guard school. Consider the source.
    All three of them, Lugovoi said, came to London with their families and met to attend a soccer game on November 1. At about 4:00 in the afternoon, before the game, they met with Litvinenko in the lobby of the hotel. Litvinenko came to the hotel to make arrangements with Lugovoi and Kovtun for a meeting with British businessmen the next day, Lugovoi said. Lugovoi said the meeting lasted about 20 minutes.

    Lugovoi and friends had drinks in anticipation of the game and invited Litvinenko to join them, but he declined. Litvinenko did not eat anything either. Lugovoi’s eight-year-old son came into the bar as the meeting was drawing to a close, and Lugovoi introduced him to Litvinenko.
    http://www.kommersant.com/p726539/r_527/Alexander_Litvinenko/

  15. jerry says:

    Interesting article in Salon but, FWIW, I don’t agree. I’d say it’s a fairly large particle size that was ingested and this lead to the systemic symptoms. No fancy nano necessary and not even a very large dose necessary, just bit of Po210 hanging around in the gut for a while. A solublized dose would be excreted quickly but a particle that slowly dispersed Po 210 would be more effective (yikes!), seems to me. I still don’t go for this sweat-excretion story, call me contrary.

  16. topsecretk9@AJ says:

    –It will be interesting to see which Russians turn up permanently missing.–

    Clarice..

    Agreed, that will be the key, won’t it?

  17. clarice says:

    Jerry, I am still puzzled by (a) how it was administered and (b) the cause of the trail.

    Some (b) might be explained easily–i.e., he used the bathroom at an office or coughed or sneezed, but others are more difficult to understand.

    If it was not administered by some new nanotechnology, is it possible it was encapsulated in a very small ceramic pellet (like the ricin in the umbrella incident) and he was jabbed with that when he traveled on the tube that day?

  18. topsecretk9@AJ says:

    …British intelligence sources increasingly suspect that Alexander Litvinenko, the former spy killed with a radioactive poison, was the victim of a plot involving “rogue elements” within the Russian state, the Guardian has learned.

    While ruling out any official involvement by Vladimir Putin’s government, investigators believe that only those with access to state nuclear laboratories could have mounted such a sophisticated plot…

    Like I’ve been saying…Russian version (who knows, maybe loosely connected) of VIPs.

  19. topsecretk9@AJ says:

    Sorry, the link

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,1961546,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=11

  20. clarice says:

    Latest–they can trace plant where polonium was created and the assassins were bunglers:
    “New developments in the fast-moving tale that has echoes of a spy thriller included the revelations that:

    • The assassins were so bungling that they dropped the polonium on the floor of a London hotel room, a senior government source told The Daily Telegraph yesterday.

    • Scientists at the Atomic Weapons Establishment at Aldermaston are believed to have already identified the nuclear plant which made the polonium.

    • Anti-terrorist officers at Scotland Yard believe the polonium was brought into London on a British Airways flight from Moscow on Oct 25, a week before Mr Litvinenko fell ill.

    • The Home Secretary told the House of Commons that 12 sites had shown traces of radioactivity and four aircraft were being searched by scientists with sophisticated tracing equipment.

    • Aides to Yegor Gaidar, a former prime minister of Russia who fell ill in Ireland last week, claimed he too had been poisoned.

    The trail of the alpha-radiation was so strong that detectives have been able to follow it across London.

    The senior government source, who is aware of the discussions of the Cabinet’s emergency committee, Cobra, said the picture of the killers that was emerging was closer to bungling assassins than cool James Bond-type killers.

    Clear traces of the radiation were found on the floor of a room, thought to be in the Millennium hotel in central London, the source said, as well as on a light switch in the same room. The traces were so strong that they indicated the actual source of the radiation was present, not a secondary source such as excretions from Mr Litvinenko’s contaminated body. Friends of Mr Litvinenko say that he did not visit the rooms in either of the hotels.

    The potential political fall-out from the affair grew as it emerged that the Atomic Weapons Establishment can identify the plant at which the radioactive element was made and are in fact thought to have done so. If that is, as many suspect, in Russia, it could cause acute embarrassment to President Vladimir Putin’s government because its head of nuclear security said recently that no similar material had gone missing in the country. ”
    From Russia with love