Nov 09 2006

My House Predictions

Published by at 9:31 am under 2006 Elections,All General Discussions

What many of us (Dafydd suffered the same fate as me) who missed in our House Predictions missed the number of seats in play. I am seeing races now that I never knew were in play. I only had one NH race at risk – probably should have gone with the other but few saw that one as close (those accurate polls agai). So forgive me for having incomplete information. And I, sadly, had too much belief that Americans would not smear one person for another person’s digressions. If I was pollyannish, it was in this one area because that was how I saw Weldon’s race going (innocent until proven guilty), and the Foley (FL-16) – Delay(TX-22) seats going. I felt we were less impulsive to media hype. OK – my confidence in people is not shattered, just dented.

That was three of my missed seats. But all in all I was not far off in many. The ones I missed were NY-24, NY-20, IN-2, FL-22 (Dem Loss – wrong in the right direction!), AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2 (apparently), (IA-1 Dem loss – wrong in the right direction)

I was right in IN-9, FL-13, NM-1 (apparently), OH-1, OH-2, CT-4 (apparently), IL-6, MN-6, WA-8 (apparently), VA-2, AZ-8 (D pickup), , PA-10 (Dem Pick Up), NY-26.

My toss ups were C)-7 (D), IN-8 (D), OH-18 (D), NC-11 (D), OH-15 (R), NH-2 (D), PA-6 (R – apparently), CT-5 (R). I had 8 toss ups and I predicted Dems would get 4, and they got 5.

I missed 9 dem pick ups not in the toss up category (edit: plus 2 I predicted correctly, fixed the numbers), but I also missed 2 Rep pick ups holds. So the dems netted 7 9 seats outside the toss ups. I said the dems would split the toss ups and they did basically (the toss ups I was watching on RCP at least). I had said Dems would win 4-8 seats in the races I had listed in my last prediction and it was actually 12 14. If I had been more bullish on the Foley, Delay and Weldon seats (my big mistakes) then I would have been within one 3 races of the results. This is a perfect example of what I was blaming on the pollsters – I had an inadequate sample. I probably should have done the entire RCP pool of races (but these posts took a lot of time to collate). I had seen a point in the RCP rankings where the polls where not indicating much more than a close race with a Rep lead and stopped there. OK – sue me.

Actually, you can’t. But if you look at my record (outside my pollyannish 3) then I was really close. And the races I applied the bias correction factor on where worthy of that correction in many cases. So we live and learn to play the game another day.

Forgot to notice there is still on Dem loss possible in GA. I felt we would get at least one. Anyway, pointless exercise. I was toasted in the Senate anyway! Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid, step up to the plate. Your turn.

5 responses so far

5 Responses to “My House Predictions”

  1. DaleinAtlanta says:

    Quit apologizing AJ; no one with any real brains, expected you to be perfect!

    It’s all rocket science to me anyhow, and I didn’t have a clue as to what was about to happen!

    I based my personal predictions on the Blog/News Artical I read LAST! Basically…..

    You did the best you could, and you weren’t afraid to make a prediction!

    If you’re guilty of wearing rose colored glasses a bit, so what; it’s your Blog, and you can do what you want!

    At least, in my eyes, You are on the CORRECT side, and that’s all that matters to me…

  2. Limerick says:

    AJ……my last trip to the track I had 2 picks out of 6 and I thought I was a genius!…….All the trolls who bagged your predictions are those who can’t understand someone who would stick their neck out. It is much safer to be right after the fact.

  3. az redneck says:

    And I contribute regularly to the Indian economy via their casinos with blackjack percentages far smaller than the variables you were attempting to deal with. And that IS my day job! LOL!
    Time to move back to what caused the conservative stumble–back to the lost Contract With America.

  4. AJStrata says:

    Thanks folks, but it is really just a game to see if I can figure out what is coming. I know I am not going to get this right all the time. That is why I put out the caveat the day of the election. Not to cover my behind, but it dawned on me some people were taking my predictions a lot more seriously than I was. I was applying sound analysis – but I know its limits. And you know what? If a few more Reps had come out we would have staved this off. But of course, if we hadn’t repulsed the Hispanic vote we would have pulled this off too. We took huge hits in the hispanic vote. And of course those voters are US citizens now.

    But anyway – it was an intriguing exercise. I was surprised to see how well I actually did, even with the blood bath we took.

  5. For Enforcement says:

    Yea, I agree with that. when you say a seat is a tossup within 1 or 2 points and it depends on turn out and turn out is opposite from what you expect. I don’t even know if you could say that was ‘wrong’.
    Yea, all the trolls were saying you really blew it, but they were wrong.
    I can’t believe the Dems are so angry.
    I sure don’t blame Bush, I really think if I blame anyone, it is the media, the Formerly MSM.
    The Gang of 14? I don’t know if they had any blame, but one member of it. Graham of SC, I was living in SC when he was elected and I worked to get him elected and I would absolutely never vote for him again. And that’s not for the gang of 14 position, but just not being a faithful supportive Republican. I think he is just a publicity hog.
    Schwartznegger in CA? Great job.