Oct 28 2016

FL Early Vote 10_28_16: GOP Expands Small Lead In Ballots

Published by at 9:26 am under All General Discussions

Here we are 4 days into the In-Person early voting in Florida (it runs until Nov 6th) and the tables are turning on the Democrats and Clinton. On the first day of In-Person voting, the Democrats jumped out to a 9% lead in ballots. Tuesday that lead had shrunk to 5%. It was 4% on Wednesday and today’s tallies (which cover through Thursday) show that lead is now 3% (5th row, or 2nd from the bottom):

2016 FL Early Voting_10_28

The GOP has the edge in total ballots cast statewide (bottom row), and it has the edge in mail-in ballots submitted (3rd row). The GOP is also submitting more of their mail-in ballots (2nd row), and that is with 53% of the mail-in ballots that were mailed out being returned. The mail-in percentages are about to cement into place.

By next week  I expect the GOP in FL to be in the lead in all categories, given the trend lines this week for In-Person early voting. For the record, the small GOP lead yesterday in total ballots submitted (11,725) expanded slightly today to 14,349.

That would spell defeat for Clinton in FL. You can look at opinion polls all day long, but the fact is the Democrats in 2012 needed a 3% edge in early voting ballots to eek out 0.88% win on election day. As of now it looks impossible for Clinton to even get a lead in the early voting ballots, let a lone a 3% lead.

By mid next week, we will know for sure.

BTW, I am skipping the tables for Broward and Miami-Dade for now. If the state turns to the GOP as I expect, there will be no need to focus at the county level any more.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “FL Early Vote 10_28_16: GOP Expands Small Lead In Ballots”

  1. MarkN says:

    Good work AJ. The early vote increase for the Democrats was down to 2K yesterday. Like you write, that could very well turn around next week as the GOP starts to cut into the democrats in-person early vote lead.

  2. Chikung69 says:

    I am really holding my “hope” powder after getting burned by Romney. I am less concerned with FL and OH and more keyed in on NC and the propensity for fraud there. Even with FL and OH, Trump must win NC or it’s over. Because he has to steal a state as well– a tough one. Like MI or PA.
    It’s H-272, T-265
    If he wins FL, OH, NC & NV (loses CO and NM as probably expected).
    I am splitting ME in there too.

    So NC is the linchpin and then there is the matter of a steal. PA? WI? MI– might be a rust belt wave. Who knows.

    All I know is it is daunting. So data like this is good news to be sure.

  3. MarkN says:

    The last line the GOP is +1 on the democrats and in 2012 the Democrats were +3. Romney lost by 3.8, a four percent turnaround from 2012 will put this race even nationally.

  4. MarkN says:

    NC is hard to read because the Democrats still hold a 40-30 registration edge due to legacy dixiecrats.