Jun 27 2006

Immigration Test

Published by at 9:21 pm under 2006 Elections,All General Discussions

A Republican primary in Utah is going to be the real first test of the immigration issue on the right, and I plan to see how things fair for the far right who left this country’s borders undefended due to a fear some immigrants may become US Citizens in 2016 or later. We have the two candidates who reflect the schism on the right. And tonight will tell which side has the upper hand (my guess is neither – which is why the far right cannot win the day in the end):

Five-term incumbent Rep. Chris Cannon, a conservative Mormon from outside Provo, is facing a stiff challenge from businessman John Jacob, also a Mormon and a conservative. The race is dominated by the debate over how to handle the millions of illegal immigrants living and working in the United States.

Both Cannon and Jacob want better border security, but they differ on what to do with undocumented workers already in the United States.

Jacob said Cannon’s support for letting illegal immigrants pay a fine and legally exit and re-enter the country amounts to a nod for amnesty. Cannon vehemently denies the accusation and argues Jacob’s desire to deport all illegal immigrants is impractical and would undermine the economy.

I am obviously 100% behind Cannon. Election results are here with polls closing at 10:30 PM Eastern (10 minutes from this initial post). At this time very early results show Cannon ahead 56.5% to 43.6% for Jacob with basically less than 1% reporting in. Bring it on baby!

Update:At 11:09 PM Eastern with few precincts reporting (<1%) the numbers still show Cannon leading 56.7% to 43.3%

Update:At 11:45 PM the latest, and still very early, results show a Cannon lead of 57.9 to 42.1%.

Update:At 11:48 we see results starting to come in and Cannon’s lead is now 56%-44%.

Update:Looks like the “Deport them now” and “Leave things as is if we cannot get what we want” far right is taking a drubbing. At 12:12 Eastern with a lot of precincts reporting in the vote is 77.3% Cannon to Jacob’s 22.7%. Will this be another 80-20 mandate?

Update:12:30 update: with still very early returns we are back to a 55.7% to 44.3% race. This is at 40% of the vote in (if I am reading the site right) but some counties are done and, if they are indicators, show a hufe win for the comprehensive immigration candidate

Update:12:40 Eastern and we have 55.5% lead for Cannon against a 44.5% for Jacobs with a fair percentage reporting in (48%). Salt Lake is the big hold out. If I see a large number of returns I will be able to call this since every other county has reported in 100% or a large percentage.

Update:Final Report. At 1:05 PM it is still a 55% to 45% lead for Cannon with 74% precincts reporting some returns (if these are finals I have no idea). Looks like a Cannon win. Good night!

38 responses so far

38 Responses to “Immigration Test”

  1. HaroldHutchison says:

    Cannon still holding a 55-44 lead…

    Hopefully, the purge will be stopped before it starts.

  2. crosspatch says:

    There are some issues concerning illegals in Utah that are not shared in other states. This probably isn’t the forum to go into that aspect, but I have several relatives that live in Utah and this has been a topic of discussion among them.

    Lets just say there is a certain group that hold a lot of sway in the state that has a vested interest in keeping things they way they are now.

  3. HaroldHutchison says:

    Cannon’s holding the lead so far…

  4. HaroldHutchison says:

    From Salt Lake County at 12:46 AM EDT:
    CHRIS CANNON REP 3542 52.23%
    JOHN D. JACOB REP 3239 47.77%

    This is with 118 as opposed to 68 at the state site…

    I think Cannon is putting this one away.

  5. AJStrata says:


    I agree. The far right will have a lot to think about tomorrow with this huge loss. If they were so popular on the right they should have walked away with this one.


  6. MerryJ1 says:

    I wouldn’t discount the incumbancy advantage.

  7. AJStrata says:


    This immigration issue is supposed to be so strong no ‘modersate’ Rep can withstand the tide! We will see if JD Hayworth fairs as well in NM.

  8. HaroldHutchison says:

    Now at 1:02 AM EDT – Salt Lake County only:
    CHRIS CANNON REP 4910 51.45%
    JOHN D. JACOB REP 4633 48.55%

  9. az redneck says:

    Come on AJ! We disagree on much of this issue, but let’s at least agree that JD is running in AZ, not NM. Beyond that, he represents Scottsdale, Cave Creek and other points north that aren’t exactly bastions of liberal thought. I wouldn’t bet against him.
    I agree with Merry–we won’t really know until an incumbent who is against amnesty faces a challenger that is pro-Senate bill.
    And I still think you are off base in referring to a fear that illegals will become citizens. In this part of the country, it’s more frustration with the concept that the feds will ever make a serious attempt to deal with the existing problems. There is a powerful and emotional belief that illegals have more interest in taking advantage of our social systems than in becoming citizens. Witness the outrage that demonstrators were carrying Mexican flags rather than American! Or maybe that was only a problem in border states? At any rate, fix some of those perceptions, and citizenship is something most can and will support.
    At any rate, for any politician the ‘coin of the realm’ is re-election and they seldom vote for princ iple, but rather for a position that they think will get them re-elected. That’s why incumbents usually have the advantage. Unless they screw up in reading their voters, they seldom lose, absent gross misconduct.

  10. crosspatch says:

    77% of precints reporting

    Cannon 57%
    Jacob 43%

  11. crosspatch says:

    Also, I didn’t follow the state legislature races but it looks like several upsets in the Republican state races. Many incumbants in the Senate and House in Utah are losing bigtime.


  12. crosspatch says:

    85% reporting

    Cannon 56%
    Jacob 44%

    At this point, I would say it is safe to stick a fork in it.

  13. crosspatch says:



  14. Great win. Its the second time that the Tanton and Tancredo folks have tried to knock him off. This time they threw everything at him. Now the big question is will the House leadership recognize this and tell Tancredo to pipe down for a while.
    4 big winners
    Mike Pence
    american people

  15. Terrye says:

    I heard that Specter has said the Senate will consider a border first compromise, I am not sure of the details but if I uderstand it correctly it means that the thing would be done in phases, with the border being the first phase. I think that if the hardliners can get a compromise that avoids a filibuster they should go for it, but I was informed on another site that any deviation from the illegal is illegal and illegal is bad forever so ship em out line that all good and real conservatives must follow line means that accepting such a compromise makes me either a person with no brain, dishonest or a **spit***liberal. I was just some sort of troll for even suggesting compromise.

    Resistance is futile as far as these folks are concerned.

  16. Terrye says:


    I don’t mean this with any disrespect, really. But I wonder why it is that the state legislatures of border states like Arizona do not pass some legilsation of their own to deal with these problems. I realize that the feds have a responsibility, but I also know that state governments have a great deal of power within their states. Just look at the hoops Bush had to jump through to send a few thousand Gaurdsmen to the borders.

  17. retire05 says:

    AJ, why must you use the fear monger tactic of saying that those who are against illegal immigration are against citizenship for immigrants. This is just a blatantly false accusation and demeans your argument. And are you so egotistical that you think that everyone who sneaks into our country wants to become a citizen? Perhaps you need to get out more often.
    Or at least out in the real world where the illegals are very much in the open. Try welfare offices, construction sites, Home Depot parking lots, any taco stand at noon. Ask the illegals if they want to stay here and become citizens or make enough money to go back to Mexico and live better than they can here.
    Why is it so hard for you to admit that most of us (99.99%) who are against ILlegal immigration are for LEGAL immigration. Why must you taint your argument with saying we are afraid they will become citizens? In reality, we want people who want to become citizens. But we want those who are willing to do it the right way, knowing that if they respect our laws enough to go through the process, they will be law abiding citizens and will contribute to our society.
    If you are going to argue for amnesty, at least do it honestly.

  18. The Heretik says:

    Sympathy for the Devil…

    What goes around didn’t come around. Satan and Congressman Chris Cannon won a Utah Republican primary with 56% of the vote against challenger John Jacob. Call it a hellish battle of two political hard guys, one of whom was harder before.

  19. ivehadit says:

    Retire, the system for LEGAL immigration is BROKEN. What is not to understand about that? People have waited YEARS LEGALLY to enter. It is not working.

    And yes, we all agree that not every person coming here wants to be a citizen-they may just want to work here. We already have workers here legally in our system like that. Afterall there are what 78 ways to enter the country legally now? When were our immigration laws last reviewed and updated?

    This is a complex issue. The people who are here now are going to be given an eleven year CHANCE to APPLY for citizenship. It is NOT guaranteed.

    Using the hard-right’s words, it’s all black or white, no gray and that is dishonest, imho. Every crime is not a “death penalty” crime but that seems to be what the implication is from some on the far right.

    Some seem to be resentful that we are a generous nation, imho. And let me say this: I DESPISE the “punch one for english” option. In America, we speak english. English is the international language of business, also.

  20. hehe…The ones who win that agree with you on illegals immigration are representative of the wrongness of the “Far Right” and the ones who disagree with you on illegals who win are not an indication of anything. Your intellectual rigor is impressive. Thank god you don’t lend such intellectual rigor to all of your posts…

    Perhaps it is time to remind you that the “Far Right” includes such radicals as: Thomas Sowell, Michelle Malkin (who by the way links to you a bunch, have you told her that you consider her dangerous?), William J. Bennett, former Secretary of Education under President Reagan, Robert H. Bork, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Solicitor General, acting Attorney General, Supreme Court nominee, U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge, William F. Buckley, Jr., founder and Editor-at-Large of National Review, Ward Connerly, former Regent at the University of California, founder and Chairman of the American Civil Rights Institute (ACRI), winner of the 2005 Bradley Prize for Outstanding Intellectual Achievement, Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Chairman of the Gingrich Group, Senior Fellow at American Enterprise Institute, Jonah Goldberg, Editor-at-Large of the National Review Online, national syndicated columnist, Victor Davis Hanson, Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, recipient of the 1991 American Philological Association Excellence in Teaching Award, David Horowitz, cofounder of the Center for the Study of Popular Culture, Editor of FrontPageMag.com ,Fred C. Iklé, former Undersecretary of Defense under Reagan, former Director of U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, David Keene, Chairman of the American Conservative Union, Brian Kennedy, President of the Claremont Institute, Publisher of the Claremont Review of Books, Roger Kimball, Managing Editor of The New Criterion, Alan Charles Kors, Professor of History at the University of Pennsylvania, Mark Krikorian, Executive Director of the Center for Immigration Studies, Michael A. Ledeen, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Seth Leibsohn, Fellow at the Claremont Institute, John Leo, columnist and Contributing Editor to U.S. News and World Report ,
    Herbert London, President of the Hudson Institute, Kathryn Jean Lopez, Editor of National Review Online, Rich Lowry, Editor of National Review, Heather Mac Donald, John M. Olin Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, winner of the 2005 Bradley Prize for Outstanding Intellectual Achievement, John O’Sullivan, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Editor-at-Large of National Review, Juliana Pilon, Research Professor at the Institute for World Politics, Daniel Pipes, founder and Director of the Middle East Forum and Campus Watch, former member of the board of the U.S. Institute of Peace, Andrew “Andy” Ramirez, Chairman of the Friends of Border Patrol, Phyllis Schlafly, founder and President of Eagle Forum.

    Man that is a big bunch of raving lunatic Far Righters…hehe. The Republicans did so much better when they had such reasonable people like Rockefeller running around….