Oct 18 2012

Obama Augering In?

Published by at 2:51 pm under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

We may be seeing the beginning of a harmonic resonance (or feedback loop) where a tipping point has been hit that builds upon itself and sends this race to one side. And that is the ever more depressing Gallup poll results (if you are a Democrat, Liberal and/or Obama support).

Today (10/18/12) Romney leads 52-45% among likely voters. For an incumbent US President that is a near 100% guaranteed loss.

This will depress Obama voters, whose intensity will drop off.

Which should result in ever worse poll numbers.

This will depress Obama voters, whose intensity will drop off some more.

Rinse and Repeat.

This is a harmonic feedback that arises once a tipping point (here the confidence for the left leaning voters) pulls the system (here the electorate) out of the stability of a dead heat and into a one sided win.

The question is, if this is the case, where is the bottom? If we look at a recent Michigan poll, it could be historically bad:

Usually, an incumbent who can’t get to 50% in pre-election polling is in trouble.  An incumbent who can’t get to 45% is almost certain to lose, especially with less than three weeks to go, as undecideds are already disinclined to support the candidate they know best.  What does it mean when a poll from a firm linked to Democrats in a key Democratic state can’t produce anything better than 44% for a Democratic incumbent and a virtual tie with a Republican challenger?

This indicates the Gallup number may not be an outlier as much as leading indicator. It also means that if Blue Michigan is this bad, nationally it could be a route. Could Obama drop to low 40% on election day? It’s possible.

W need more polling to see for sure, but early next week we will know the answer.

This is generating some great commentary at Hot Air, as the Obama era looks to be coming to an end.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “Obama Augering In?”

  1. archtop says:

    Expect the polls to tighten before election day – AND, expect Obama to throw everything he has into the next debate. If he muffs it (I expect he will – it’s foreign policy after all), then it will be difficult to rebound.

    Here in New Hampshire (one of the “firewall” states), I just don’t see the intensity here for Obama – no big lawn signs or bumper stickers. And Mitt won the NH primary, so I don’t see it going to Obama on election day (though it may be close).

  2. oneal lane says:

    I fully expect a repeat of the 2000 strategy. A few days before the election GWB’s DWI came to light.

    Expect about 3-4 days before the election for a “woman” to come out of the woodwork with a claim against Romney. He’s is every woman’s secret dream.

    A powerful, wealthy, handsome guy. You have to know he has been “hit on” in the past, and even if he stayed clean, a scorned woman is nothing to laugh at!

    3-4 days out, there is no time to check the story out. Plenty of time for damage!

    Democrats will do!