Immigration is looking to be a winner for Bush, but a possible loser for Reps as long as foaming-at-the-mouth types like Michael Savage are considered ‘conservative’. The reason is those who think illegal immigration is a crime on the par of robbery or assault (as opposed to not having a valid license) are a minority repulsive to most Americans, as shown in this LA Times poll (which spins all the news as bad for Bush no matter what logic dictates):

The survey found that while Republican lawmakers are split over the idea of adding a guest worker program, a majority of the general public agree with President Bush, who backs such a program. Fifty-four percent of the public supports it, compared to 21% who do not.

That is more than 2 to 1 against Savage and for Bush’s proposal. As details are added, there is respect for our immigrant neighbors, not anger and spite:

Most popular with the public, and most controversial among lawmakers, was a proposal to allow undocumented workers who have been living and working in the U.S. for a number of years and who do not have criminal records to apply for legal status, after fulfilling certain requirements. Two-thirds overall supported the idea while fewer than one in five were opposed. Allowing immigrants who are living and working in the U.S. to start down the path to legal citizenship received broad bipartisan support – 59% of Democrats, 71% of Independents, and 67% of Republicans back the idea.

Emphasis mine. Why these folks are afraid to use simple number is an interesting subject for speculation. Maybe they are afraid to show how much support Bush is getting. The highlighted sentence is 66% for and 19% (or less) against the idea. The Michael Savages have lost this one 3 to 1. Bush is garnering 66% approval for a plan that respects people who have been here for years being productive, but without proper papers.

And to follow on a previous post about how the democrat wave is a myth, there is an interestind detail in the congressional ballot question:

Among registered voters, if the congressional race were held today, Democrats have a 14 point advantage. More than two out of five voters who consider themselves independents said they will vote for a Democratic candidate, as will 60% of moderates.

We have all seen pollster ‘adjust’ their samples to unrealistically over represent the left. But clearly these folks use words instead of numbers as a way to hide important information which is not good for the left. Registered voters are the most important sample for elections, especially off year elections. If you haven’t registered it is very doubtful you will pull it all together to vote for your no name representative in Congress. So when the democrats are garnering less than half the independents, then that is BIG news. The country is really divided into about equal thirds: democrat, republican and independents. The independents hold the key to winning. The phrase’ more than two out of five’ means roughly 41-44% (otherwise someone would say nearly half if it was above 45%). that means roughly 56-59% of independents are leaning right. This magically is about the same divide we just saw yesterday in the election to fill Randy Cunningham’s seat between Reps and Dems. In 2004 Kerry tied Bush with Independents with 49% to Bush’s 48%. By that standard that means a drop off in support for democrats with independents.

Addendum:  Jeff at Protein Wisdom does point out how the reps could disillusion their base and lose.  I sincerely doubt cons will give up now and let the dems run wild. They have worked too hard to get here.  But it is possible!