Oct 21 2010

PA Senate Race Takes Turn Towards GOP Over Night!

Published by at 7:23 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Folks, polls are fickle things. One PPP poll showing significantly more Democrat turnout than 2008 and 2006 is not a trend. It is shoddy polling. Then another PA polling group comes out and announces “Joe Sestak Has Lead” – even while the results are a statistical tie at best (+/- 5%).

That same hyper-ventilated poll today shows Sestak dropping into a tie! The trend cannot be good, as Toomey jumps overnight!

Pullease. This year is incredibly hard to poll for a variety of reasons. But the general picture is clear – this is not the year of the big, intrusive government Democrat. The race will be tight in PA, but Sestak has a very low probability of winning in two weeks. I doubt he could have kept his old House seat, let alone a statewide seat. The big item here is the huge lead Toomey has with independents, and the large number of undecideds. First one to 49% wins.

8 responses so far

8 Responses to “PA Senate Race Takes Turn Towards GOP Over Night!”

  1. archtop says:

    The PPP polling sounds dodgy to me. I remember when their poll last year indicated Hoffman way up in NY-23, just a few days before the election, and we all know how that turned out.

    I have no doubt that the polls will tighten before election day. Of course, I remember telling myself in 2008 … “hey, look! the polls are tightening, I think McCain-Palin is going to pull this one out! Yes!”. The same in 2006…

    And remember, the only poll that matters is the one on November 2!

  2. oneal lane says:

    Are things any better in Delaware? I am hoping she can close it up in the last week.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: PA Senate Race Takes Turn Towards GOP Over Night!: http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/14936 […]

  4. I wrote a blog post about polls and trends this late in the election cycle. The things that happen between Columbus Day and Election Day are fairly predictable.

    You can see my thoughts here.

    http://www.ibleedcrimsonred.com/2010/10/watching-poll-figures-between-now-and.html

    Basically, there are five rules of thumb that you can use to gauge how things are really shaping up in races like Pennsylvania, California, Wisconsin, etc. The patterns are already showing up.

  5. AJStrata says:

    Thanks for the link Crimson!

  6. dhunter says:

    Perhaps these polls are starting to factor in the dead vote, the Union busses hauling voters from precinct to precinct to vote multiple times, the out of state borader crossers vote, the manufactured absentee ballots for Mickey, Minnei and Donald Duck,
    Remember its not how the votes are taken its how the votes are tallied!

    Right Al franken, Al Gore?

    Get as many absentees in as you can! I got three its easy the nursing homes with grandma and grandpa have lots of WWII generation folks who would love to vote if someone asks them and helps them. They are old not stupid!

    Get everyone you can to go and take some with you. Make your vote count for 5 my is gonna count for 7.
    Make this outside the margin of FRAUD!

  7. lurker9876 says:

    [url=”http://libertypundits.net/article/how-the-liberal-media-builds-a-narrative-to-achieve-a-political-end-king-street-patriots-is-exhibit-a/”]How The Liberal Media Build A Narrative To Achieve A Political End: King Street Patriots Is Exhibit ?A? ? UPDATED[/url]

    [url=”http://www.khou.com/home/Ron-Paul-speaks-at-Tea-Party-rally-in-La-Marque–105320473.html?ref=nf”]Ron Paul speaks at Tea Party rally in La Marque[/url]

    [url=”http://libertypundits.net/article/how-the-liberal-media-builds-a-narrative-to-achieve-a-political-end-king-street-patriots-is-exhibit-a/”]How The Liberal Media Build A Narrative To Achieve A Political End: King Street Patriots Is Exhibit ?A? ? UPDATED[/url]

    [url=”http://www.khou.com/home/Ron-Paul-speaks-at-Tea-Party-rally-in-La-Marque–105320473.html?ref=nf”]Ron Paul speaks at Tea Party rally in La Marque[/url]

    [url=”http://libertypundits.net/article/how-the-liberal-media-builds-a-narrative-to-achieve-a-political-end-king-street-patriots-is-exhibit-a/”]How The Liberal Media Build A Narrative To Achieve A Political End: King Street Patriots Is Exhibit ?A? ? UPDATED[/url]

    [url=”http://www.khou.com/home/Ron-Paul-speaks-at-Tea-Party-rally-in-La-Marque–105320473.html?ref=nf”]Ron Paul speaks at Tea Party rally in La Marque[/url]

    [url=”http://libertypundits.net/article/how-the-liberal-media-builds-a-narrative-to-achieve-a-political-end-king-street-patriots-is-exhibit-a/”]How The Liberal Media Build A Narrative To Achieve A Political End: King Street Patriots Is Exhibit ?A? ? UPDATED[/url]

    [url=”http://www.khou.com/home/Ron-Paul-speaks-at-Tea-Party-rally-in-La-Marque–105320473.html?ref=nf”]Ron Paul speaks at Tea Party rally in La Marque[/url]

    http://bigjolly.com/sections/harris-county/507-clear-lake-tea-party-pre-election-rally-report.html

    [url=”http://bigjolly.com/sections/texas/504-forget-a-meltdown-texas-dems-are-exploding-in-anger-as-they-prepare-for-defeat.html”]Forget a Meltdown, Texas Dems are Exploding in Anger as They Prepare for Defeat [/url] – You should read about Bill White here.