Sep 02 2009

The Bad News Keeps Coming

Published by at 12:41 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Major Update Below!

I could never understand why Democrats loved the Clintons after they completely decimated the Democrats’ political hold on power in DC. Clinton went into DC with huge majorities in Congress (as did Obama) and by the first midterm had created such a backlash in the country that the Democrats were run out of town.

And that was with a growing economy and a world (falsely) at peace time!

The problem has been (and always will be) letting the liberal lunatic fringe run rampant when the Dems get in power, which takes the electorate only a few short months to realize that all their nice sounding fiction is just that – snake oil fiction.

Well, the bad polling news just keeps coming, and we are still a year out from the mid terms. For example, look at some charts from Rasmussen, where the presidential index is indicating serioous damage to President Obama:

Those who strongly disapprove are now at 40% (and heading towards 50) while the strongly approve group is shrinking fast (with the far left ready to bolt over the loss of government rationed health care). While this snapshot is quite jolting, one look at the month-by-month trend (which smoothes out the daily and weekly gyrations) really emphasizes how bad it is getting for our young and inexperienced President:

President Obama is seeing a swing of 32%! Nearly one third of the electorate has moved from strongly support to strongly disapprove. A similar message is coming from Pew Research today as well. Look at how the Democrats are faring in Congress:

Americans are extremely displeased with Congress, and there are already some signs that this could take a toll on the Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections. Currently, 37% express a favorable opinion of Congress, while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Positive opinions of Congress have declined by 13 points since April and are now at one of their lowest points in more than two decades of Pew Research Center surveys.

Emphasis mine. It seem the liberals have finally outperformed the far right – they have sunk Congressional support to new lows (which, stunningly, is worse than during the 1994 whooping the Dems took). And where is this erosion taking place – not surprisingly in the very same center of the country which decides which party will get an opportunity to impress the voters next time:

Most of the shift in voting intentions since the 2006 election cycle has occurred among political independents. Independent voters backed Democrats by a wide margin in the previous midterm (11 points on the eve of the election), but currently say they support the GOP candidate in their district by 43% to 38%.

One more thing to note in the Pew poll is where the biggest demographic shifts are occurring. Check out this chart:

Note the 10% loss in independents, but also the 12% loss in seniors (very, very reliable voters). That is not much of a surprise given the Democrats’ zealotry on government takeover and rationing of health care, funded by cuts in popular and important Medicare/Medicaid programs.

The one surprise that I saw was the under $30,000 a year crowd, which also move 11% towards the GOP. This is supposed to be the liberal democrats natural base. I suspect trillions of dollars bailing out fat cats on Wall Street and the automakers, as well as a faux stimulus bill which has not done anything but run up massive record deficits, is starting to really bite into the Democrats’ base. If those hurting in this economy are turning on the Dems, they are in for one helluva bad midterm election next year.

Finally, the 30-49 group is another critical group the Dems cannot win without. These (us) folks are at our peak earning capability, are in very large numbers (tail end of the Boomers), vote very regularly and are raising families. The Dems went from +6% to -7% since November 2006 (I think someone made a math error on this line in the graph – looks like a +13 gain for the GOP).

If the midterms were today the Dems would probably lose the House in my humble opinion (knowing I have been way too optimistic on the GOP for two cycles in a row now). Losing support among independents, seniors, the 30-49 crowd and the under $30,000 a year crowd just is not going to produce successes on election day.

Major Update: I totally missed this one chart at Pew showing the shocking slide for Congress and the Dems, just let the news here sink it:

Even the Dems are not happy with the Democrat Congress (-11%) since April (the peak), but look at those independents (-17%), those under $30K (-17%), those 50-64 (-19%) and those 30-49 (-17%). Good lord, Congress is getting hammered (rightfully so in my mind) in this poll and we still have months and months of failed economic policies to live through before the full damage is done.

12 responses so far

12 Responses to “The Bad News Keeps Coming”

  1. MerlinOS2 says:

    For multiple elections the Dems used the scare tactic to seniors that the Repubs would ruin Social Security and Medicare.

    Now that they see the same Dems are willing and eager to throw them under the bus they are waking up.

    Hopefully this will be a long term shift in seeing things more clearly.

  2. dhunter says:

    Merli n,
    I fear It won’t be long term though as old people pass on they are replaced by newly indoctrinated NEA educated young who, by the way, will get a full dose of Pinnochios propaganda all to themselves Sept. 8th re: the Census and possinly the flu vaccine!

    The NEA must be done away with and competition through vouchers instituted into the education system before long term change is going to happen. That is the Dems worst nightmare maybe even a greater nightmare than Sarah Palin!

    They even did away with a successful program for minorities in D.C. in homage to the Union!

  3. kathie says:

    The reason the elderly will always be a problem, is because we have paid into a government program, we like the young have not had a choice. When choices are taken away, you focus like a lazar beam on what decisions are made on your behalf. For an example, congress voted to not raise Social Security payments for the next two years, because inflation has been flat. So we are lucky to know that medical costs will not sky rocket for the next two years, gasoline prices will stay the same, and heating oil is flat. All good news for the general public as well. And Obama has only given congress a 2% raise this next year instead of a 2.4% raise. So on the one hand living is so very expensive, on the other hand it really isn’t so bad. On the one hand we need to shovel $865 billion into the economy to help those who are hurting, on the other hand we need to be mindful of a growing budget so we will cut payments to Social Security recipients.

    Obama is really big on the one hand, then on the other. One day he is going to have to make a decision and defend it, and call it his own. I’m waiting.

  4. MerlinOS2 says:

    Part of the fall right now is because the nutroots are in a tizzy that he is not left enough to satisfy them.

    Politico says Obama now is going to drop support for the public option which is a non negotiable item for the nutroots but I wonder if that is just a trial balloon to see how it sails.

    Instead of fighting for vouchers and other options it is time for corporations to step up and fund a parallel school system to enable the skilled workers we need to keep our country growing.

    The current education system we have is too fixed in its leanings to even think of trying to fix it.

  5. WWS says:

    merlin – corporations cannot do that, since they will always be susceptible to a government takeover whenever the political winds blow against them. Anyone trying that from a corporate position will always be subject to a thousand legal attacks on every conceivable ground, and quite a few inconceivable ones.

    The only realistic base for an alternate/parallel education system are the various Churches, who can shelter behind the constitutional protection given by Freedom of Religion. Now if some corporate sponsors were willing to fund some of the very excellent parochial school systems that exist through properly placed charitable contributions, I think that would work out very well for all concerned.

  6. kathie says:

    Did anybody see this?

    Kabul U.S. Embassy Guard: Sexual Deviancy Required for Promotion
    Whistleblower Says Bosses Required Sex Acts for Guards Seeking Best shift, Promotion

    I’m quite sure that this behavior must be sanctioned by the highest levels of our government. Why else would it happen?

  7. crosspatch says:

    Well, it looks like Congress might have figured out how to tax our IRA and 401K retirement funds. They are calling it a “Wall Street” tax on every share of stock transacted. What it really is, is a tax on every pension and retirement plan in the country. The end result will be that these funds will flee the US stock exchanges as will the companies listing stock. The AFL-CIO thought this up. They want to destroy our capital markets.

    I am absolutely outraged.

  8. kathie says:

    Crosspatch…..I read that the other day. Obama appointed an AFL_CIO guy to the New York fed, is that right. Our only hope is that more then 50% of Americans own stork and make transactions. At the rate that Obama is going, he is going to witness a real revolution American style.

  9. kittymyers says:

    Does anyone think Obama will try to halt or even eliminate elections? Forget if he can. After all, he kicks aside the Constitution whenever it suits his needs. I ask because my husband has been predicting he will since last November. I used to pooh-pooh it but no longer.

    The one thing Obama can’t quite control are the elections. He can steal votes and intimidate voters, but not to the extent he needs. (At least I don’t think he can.) I see the mid-terms next year as a big problem for him, and I’m beginning to think he’ll find a way to halt them or even eliminate them.

    On the other hand, Quin Hillyer points out a possible Obama strategy:
    “Finally, it will help Obama that, probably by design, the bulk of the “stimulus” funds remain unspent. What will happen is that at just the right time, those funds will spur a false recovery — a “recovery” hailed by the establishment media as proof of Obama’s wisdom. The recovery won’t last, because it won’t be real. But that won’t matter. Timed just right, it will allow Obama to claim the economic high road — something Jimmy Carter never was able to claim. Relieved Americans who are apolitical could easily be swayed to “stay the course,” just as Americans stayed the course with Ronald Reagan in 1982. But Reagan’s course led to greater freedom; if Obama’s course is stayed and he consolidates power in 2010, the diminution of freedom may be well-nigh irreversible.”

  10. marksbbr says:

    Kitty, I have feared that elections may become a relic of the past, as well. I don’t think Obama and company would completely get rid of them… that would look too obvious of a move to consolidate power. What I ultimately fear, however, is that future elections will be so rigged and full of irregularities that they will be more of a rubber stamp. I think it is possible, and it does worry me. After all, Obama is a product of the Chicago political machine- where cemeteries are always staunch Democrat territory.

  11. AJ

    Obama and his inner circle seem to have a “John Sununu problem.” They have let themselves get cut off from the number one issue on the minds of the American people – the Economy.

    Pres. George H.W. Bush got into similar trouble with the American public when he let James Baker become Sec of State. White House Chief of Staff John Sununu then cut Pres. Bush off from the outside world.

    This left Bush 41 without a “Reality check guy” (Baker) in the White House who was both in touch with Bush and with outside reality *and* had the credibility with Bush41 to be listened too. The lack of a “reality check guy” allowed Democratic candidate Gov. Bill (“It’s the Economy, Stupid”) Clinton to paint Bush 41 as not being engaged on the economy.

    I mention this because it is blindingly obvious that the Obama Administration lives or dies with the economy, and unemployment is hitting 10% nationally. It is political death for a President to seem oblivious to the concerns of ordinary people, and a perception that a President is not even trying to address their No. 1 concern does that.

    IMO, the Obama Administration has created the perception among growing numbers of Americans, via placing so much emphasis on its non-economic policy objectives like Health Care, Cap & Trade, etc., that President Obama not only doesn’t care, but is actively oblivious to the economic pain suffered by ordinary Americans during this recession.

    Ordinary Americans who have not, and will not, buy mealy-mouthed explanations that global warming and changes in national health care will somehow fix the economy.

    That claim is dead on arrival.

    So, again IMO, the Obama Administration now has a rapidly closing time window to reverse this growing public perception that it does not care about them.

    This can only be done by dropping the Obama Administration’s global warming and health care changes goals, and loudly focusing on issues that the public believes might address their economic woes. (Think in terms here of the way Pres Clinton listened to Dick Morris and abandoned Hillary’s Health care efforts for the popular Republican Welfare Reform effort.)

    Which would put the Obama Administration on a collision course with the Democratic base, who truly do not care about the concerns of ordinary people, particularly that so many of the public are unemployed, but do vociferously believe in global warming, a national single payer health system and that both the CIA and tax cuts are the root of all evil.

    Right now it seems like the White House has only the latter sort of people in it, without a Dick Morris type who saved Pres. Clinton’s reelection.

    We’ll know for certain that is the case if Obama doesn’t refocus on the economy before Thanksgiving.

  12. AJStrata says:

    Excellent observations Trent.

    I agree, if Obama focused on tax cuts, pulling back the stimulus bill disaster, figured out how to help people keep their homes he would be back on track.

    Problem is, he can’t. He’s not that strong. And he made the mistake of giving the far left hope they would finally be able to change America into their twisted fantasies.

    Obama will be another victim of the nation trying to come to grips with its awakening process. It has been in a stupor for years. 9-11 woke it up again, and made it remember it has a leadership role (outside of being the lead consumer).

    We will have to suffer a few gyrations to clean out the cobwebs and the extremists in DC. But things will settle down eventually.