Jun 13 2008

Obama’s Bump Turns To A Slump

Published by at 3:29 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Many weeks ago I predicted Obama would not get much of a bump out of his nomination, and in fact would start to fade as sufficient numbers of Clinton supporters (mostly older woman) made good on their threats and bolted the Democrats after the beating Hillary took at the hands of male liberals.   The bump took longer to show up than I predicted (oh well, nobody’s perfect), but it was short and shallow all the same.  You can see it in the Gallup daily tracking poll:



A few of our die hard liberal posters are welcome to ponder this graph as they eat their crow (if you want to see the larger original simply click on the graph). Obama never got very far above the Margin of Error (MoE), which for Gallup is +/- 2%. His seven point lead really was statistically a 3-4 point bump once you factor in the MoE. Right now it is back to a dead heat.

Well, my timing was off, but the result is the same. Gallup was off-line one day due to power outages in certain regions so my guess is there is more downward movement yet to show up in later polls. I should note this is not a one poll phenomena – just check the RCP polls for the last week. We shall see, but Obama is not doing very well – that much is becoming quite clear.

Update: Maybe the reason Obama is doing so badly is because of this!

Angered by what they consider sexist news coverage of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, many women and erstwhile Clinton supporters are proposing boycotts of the cable networks, putting up videos on a “Media Hall of Shame,” starting a national conversation about sexism and pushing Mrs. Clinton’s rival, Senator Barack Obama, to address the matter.

Well, we seem to need a ‘hall’ for the hall of shame and I am willing to put a page up with the You Tube videos anyone wants to pass along in the comments page. I would love to see a compendium of the liberal news media bashing a liberal woman – we need demonstrable proof of the kind of people who inhabit the news media and pass around nasty and inaccurate rumors about other Americans trying to do their job or the best they can for their country.

Send me your links and the hall will be built!

Update:  Just wanted to note the huge drop off in one poll in RCPs list of polls.  IBD/TIPP one month ago had Obama +11.   This week Obama was down to +3, which is a huge drop in one month.  Yep, Obama is doing really well!



8 responses so far

8 Responses to “Obama’s Bump Turns To A Slump”

  1. momdear1 says:

    When, and if, someone gets around to asking the Messiah if his plans for change means he is going to release the Mau-Mau, now incarcerated in our prisons for their criminal activities, to apply retirbution on white America for past, real and imagined wrongs to their race, because, as their Black Liberation Theology teaches, they are over represented in the prison population, his numbers are likely to take a bigger nose dive.

    Lets face it. The black inner city criminal gangs are nothing more than a local version of the Mau Mau. Will someone ask Mr. Obama if he plans to issue Presidential pardons to black criminals, which his church and cohorts claim are over represented in the prison population because of racism? If nobody else is interested, I’d like to know what his answer is.

  2. Terrye says:

    I think a lot of people just do not trust Obama. They have reservations about him. And I don’t think it is just racism or something like that. I doubt they would have the same worries about someone like Colin Powell. The latest thing with Johnson is just another example of how Obama says one thing, and does another.

  3. Soothsayer says:

    Day late and a dollar short, as usual, AJ. Suggest you peruse the map over at http://www.electoral-vote.com, which shows Obama leading in states with 304 electoral votes; McCain leading in states with 221 electoral votes; 13 tied.

    Site also predicts Dems take the Senate 58-42 and the House 238-197.

    It’s looking like what’s known as an old fashioned ass-whuppin’ !

  4. gwood says:

    We now have in this country more people who are receiving benefits from the government than the number of those who fund its largesse. So what Sooth and this poll he linked to both predict, could definitely come to pass. I would caution however, that the left’s prognostications on Iraq, for example, have clearly been refuted by events on the ground, so we should consider the source.

    The problem for all of us is that the “rich” and the “evil corporations”, by and large the funders of the public sector leviathan, are our nation’s employers and investors. Targeting them through tax and regulatory policies will feel good for a while, but in the end will backfire on those who want bigger government.

  5. conman says:


    I love how you change your predictions when the facts don’t bear out. You did not predict that “Obama would not get much of a bump out of his nomination” as you claim above. You predicted that Obama would see a DROP in his numbers as a sign he was losing Clinton supportes. Here is a direct quote of your June 8th prediction in your post about Obama losing Clinton supporters:

    “If I am write we should see BO fade by 3-6% points in polls over the next week or so.”

    Now you pretends that you really predicted Obama would only get a small bump? Why would you pretend like you predicted something different when it is so easy for us to look it up your prediction ourselves? Regardless, as I’ve said to you before, you read way too much into a single poll.

    Since you think that the polls are so significant at this point in the election, maybe you can explain the latest poll that shows that the Democrats are far more supportive of Obama than the Republicans are of McCain. Here is what the latest Hotline/Diaego poll found:

    “68% of Democratic primary voters were satisfied with Obama as the nominee, with 30% preferring someone else.

    By contrast, only 52% of Republican primary voters were satisfied with John McCain as their nominee, with 45% preferring someone else. And this is despite the fact that McCain sewed up his nomination months ago, while Democratic emotions were still raw when this poll was conducted.” http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/poll_dems_satisfied_with_obama.php

    So it appears that McCain has a far greater problem with his own party than Obama.

  6. AJStrata says:

    Actually Conman, I did – in a later post. Or did you forget all the posts complaining I understated the bump? Enjoy your crow! Told you it would be coming soon.

  7. conman says:


    So let me get this straight. You make an initial prediction of a significant drop in Obama’s numbers. When that didn’t pan out based on the polls, you later revised your predicition to Obama will not get much of a bump. And now you are claiming that your prediction was right all along and that I should eat crow? Are you serious? Do you not see the irony in continuously revising your predictions when facts/events prove you wrong, and then claiming you were right all along because your latest prediction is supported by facts/events? Too funny!

    I also find it ironic that just yesterday you claimed that your predictions are not “wrong” if they don’t pan out, but you always point out your predictions when you believe they are “right”. After going round and round yesterday about what you initially predicted on this question, in which I had to quote from your earlier posts to finally get you to admit that your prediction was wrong, you wrote the following: “I am not ‘wrong’, it is a prediction. It is not wrong to test theories.” So, when your predictions are wrong it is meaningless – just testing theories. But when your predictions are supposedly “right” its – see, told you so, eat crow!!! I guess I now understand why you think you are always right.

  8. […] McCain. All the hallmarks of a desperate man on the cusp of losing it all. I should note that in my last post on these polls I expected the slump to deepen – and it […]