Search Results for ""political industrial complex""

May 25 2016

Trump Befuddles The Political Industrial Complex

Published by under 2016 Elections

The Political Industrial Complex (or PIC, which encompasses all the Pols, their staffs and consultants, their donor-cronies and their lobbyists, and of course the news media – all who live in a bubble and consider themselves ‘elite’) are completely befuddled by the Trump phenomena.

I suppose their confusion is because these supposedly brilliant, all-knowing, ‘elites’ really are not that much smarter than the rest of us, and cannot see what we all see looking into the PIC bubble-world

The NY Times had a typical PIC reaction story today (H/T RealClear Politics). It just drips with elitist befuddlement:

Once again, we are faced with a rising Trump. Once again, we have to wonder what is going on.

Hillary Clinton, a Yale Law graduate whose résumé includes stints at the Children’s Defense Fund and the House Judiciary Committee working on Watergate, spent more than a decade as first lady of Arkansas, eight years as first lady of the United States, eight years as a senator and four years as secretary of state serving as one of the president’s principal foreign policy advisers. She collected more than 17 million votes in 2008 as the first woman to ever come close to winning the presidential nomination of a major party; she has been named 12 times by Forbes as one of most powerful women in the world and found 20 times by Gallup to be the woman Americans admire most in the world.

How could a candidate with as much baggage as Trump be neck-and-neck with one of the most admired, best credentialed and most broadly experienced nominees in the history of the Democratic Party?

How indeed! Maybe because all those accolades don’t carry any weight with the electorate. Probably because being a member of the PIC in high standing is actually a negative to the voters. If this is an anti-PIC election year (which it clearly is on a global level), then the masses are fed up with PIC incompetence across the spectrum.

All those accolades fly in the face of Hillary’s Benghazi culpability, her email shenanigans, her unethical international donors, etc, etc, etc.

Let us also not forget that the PIC has been leading decades of disastrous results, from Obamacare to our open boarders, to our middle east fiascos.  People are fed up.  When the PIC takes 30+% of our income and then screws up in execution the result is obvious.

Fire the PIC and/or return our money.

We see this trend in the recent Austrian presidential election and the EU referendum in the UK. So why are these supposed ‘elites’ not showing off their god-given superior powers of intellect and see what is going on? Let’s get back to that precious NY Times diatribe:

How did Clinton lose her advantage?

The unrelenting assault from the right and the left on her integrity and competence, conducted both by Republicans and by her opponent for the Democratic nomination, appears to have taken a toll. Clinton has been under attack from the right throughout her 25 years in the national arena. The Sanders critique from the left has served to deepen her negative ratings.

Notice how the PIC bubble blinds the those inside the PIC to any cause from outside the PIC? How about it had nothing to do with attacks from the right side or left side of the PIC?

How about the masses see that the PIC is completely dysfunctional and incompetent?

Blind leading the blind. It is the difference between “book smart” and “street smart” – or worse “PIC smart” and “street smart”. It is amazing how big the gulf has become between the country and the PIC.

Trump arose from a field of PIC-preferred candidates, to the great consternation of the right-side of the PIC.

#NeverTrump is the PIC reaction to the idea someone outside the PIC could come in at the top and shake things up! And now the rest of the PIC is up in arms and sweating bullets as Trump’s momentum increases.

It will NEVER occur to these elite geniuses this is exactly what the voters want! Why?  Because it means the PIC is being rejected by its host.  And the thought of all these brilliant minds being “fired” by the owners of this great country is just to much to bear (see Bill Kristol, Charles Krauthammer, Paul Ryan). And so they will continue to not understand the forces behind the 2016 election and ignore the signals being sent by “we the people




One response so far

Dec 03 2011

Cain Surrenders To The Slime Machine Of The Political Industrial Complex

Published by under 2012 Elections

I did not think Cain would cave, but he did. Which means politics in America is now controlled by the elite of the Political Industrial Complex.

Since that is the case, this blog will be suspending its interest in  parties and politics as well. Since the system is rigged against Main Street, no need to waste my time pretending our views matter.

GOP – you will not see any support from the Strata-Sphere. Your on your own. I seriously doubt I will even vote, let alone lift  finger for any of the DC insiders now running. If someone like Palin or Cain jumps in I will reconsider. But listening or challenging the vacuous dribble that passes for political debate is just a waste of IQ points.

Instead I will focus on science, law, ethics (if we can find any) and current events. Which means I will keep covering the economic mess left by the Democrats while noting there will be no assistance coming from the meek and impotent GOP. I will keep covering Climategate, along with other failed conspiracy theories. Will keep an eye on Fast and Furious and other gross crimes against our citizenry from the powers that be. But politics reeks right now and I just tool a shower.

I have seen 30 years of changing out who is sitting in the deck chairs of the ship of state, and have realized that as long as the Political Industrial Complex decides who gets to sit in the chairs and not the voters this nation is screwed. We are still heading for the same iceberg because we cannot get someone like Cain or Palin by the rabid guard dogs covering for those who are up to their elbows in our tax dollars.

35 responses so far

Jul 15 2011

Debt Crisis: Trust Americans, Not The Fools From The Political Industrial Complex

Published by under All General Discussions

Waited to see what President Obama had to offer this morning, and sadly it was so moronic I am surprised (not really, more disappointed) that the news media can’t see the President’s lame shell game here.

Obama basically said this: I have identified a ton of painful domestic cuts, but I won’t support these painful cuts unless millionaires i.e., small businesses) pay a price (i.e., tax increases). What he NEVER said was he would use the new tax revenues to refund those painful cuts! Yes folks, his version of shared sacrifice is higher taxes for the upper class, painful cuts in programs and services for everyone else, and money for the bankers and lenders who buy up the debt!! What a deal!

The only question is why can’t we just do the painful cuts? He was going to do them anyway! Why not cut funding and leave the market to rebuild the economy. We know the government can’t do it. They wasted over $5 trillion dollars (that is over $16,000 per man, woman and child in the country) in new debt since Obama was sworn in. I would have preferred the $100,000 my family of 6 to lost Democrat incompetence. We could have done much more with it.

We have a choice here. Cut the money addiction in Washington and let Americans keep their hard earned money to create jobs, opportunities, careers, families, good lives – basically the American Dream. Or we give people like Obama, Reid and Pelosi our money so they can live the good life and dole it back out to us as they see fit.

The GOP, Tea Party and vast majorities of Independents trust Americans over the nuts in DC. It’s that new Libertarian force that arose from 2009 to 2010 in the electorate. The entire Political Industrial Complex that spans incompetent bureaucrats, politician, lobbyists and the partisan news media cannot do what Americans can do with their own money. None of them deserve America’s trust, let alone our hard earned money.

Pass what is needed in the House and let the Dems try and claim, as Obama said, he has no solutions to the cuts, but he plans to keep wasting money by starving our economy of the resources to create jobs. Bring it on!

Addendum: BTW, in case this is still not clear, if Obama raises taxes and then does not execute those painful domestic cuts, then all he did was raise taxes! So again, all he is offering is tax hikes alone, or tax hikes and painful cuts – only a naive journalist would be fooled by that one.

Update: Excellent open thread discussion at Hot Air

3 responses so far

Sep 23 2009

Political Industrial Complex Under Fire

I am a conservative centrist. I lean to the GOP as long as it doesn’t get taken over by the far right. I am an Independent, and have been since Ronald Reagan. I came to reject the robotic mind set of both parties early in life. I think I represent a growing trend in America – I oppose the Political Industrial Complex which seems hell bent on telling everyone how to live, and are nothing more than an ATM machine to play God in their own image.

I define the Political Industrial Complex as the career politicians, their handlers, their lobbyist power brokers and the news media talking heads who try and craft how we should all think. Just like there once was a rising protest over the so called military industrial complex (of which I am a part in many ways) in the 1970’s, this ex-hippy along with many others have come to realize there is nothing wrong with America that needs fixing. The cancer is the Political Industrial Complex – which needs to be excised and replaced with new leaders, new ideas and built upon the premise that less control and intrusion on every day life is better. Less meddling allows us to create, build and advance ourselves and society as a whole.

We don’t need social engineers in DC and the top media outlets to explain things for us. In fact, we find it is usually the other way around – we need to explain to the elitists in their little bubbles what the real world outside the beltway is all about.

2010 is shaping up to be an interesting election – where both parties are facing a strong desire in the electorate to not remake America, but to remake our political process and tear down the political powers that mute our views and go against our collective will.

I am not the only one who sees this coming. For example:

Across the nation, there is a sense that average Americans are being hurt by powerful forces that prosper at their expense, in an economy that is unfair, with institutional, financial and political power aligned against them.

This feeling is shared by Tea Party demonstrators, jobless workers and small-business owners who find that banks won’t lend them money while their credit card interest rates rise to punishing levels, workers who lose their health insurance and young people who will be forced to pay back mountains of debt piled high by the gluttony of their elders.

The great fault line in American politics today is not Democratic versus Republican, left versus right or black versus white. It is between the core political and financial power centers and the great silent majority of Americans who want to work hard, play fair, build a better life for their families and be treated fairly by government and business alike.

This is not some mythical rise of the silent majority – it is a measurable backlash brewing that will rally behind anyone who is ready to dismantle the Political Industrial Complex’s hold on this great nation and its people:

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters nationwide say they’re at least somewhat angry about the current policies of the federal government. That figure includes 36% who are Very Angry.

Adding to the voter frustration is the fact that 60% believe neither Republican nor Democratic political leaders have an understanding of what is needed today.
Among those who are Very Angry about government policies, 80% say that neither political party’s leaders have the answers.

Neither party is listening. What we have are zealots left and right screaming their preferred world views and insulting anyone who disagrees with them. Ronald Reagan’s shining city on the hill does not include DC anymore. And it shouldn’t.

We need fresh blood, which can act maturely and civilly, and combine the good ideas and good intentions of America, not divide it. This will be the century of the independent centrists, and given how the two fringes have behaved, it is about damn time.

It is “We The People” – not “We The All-Knowing Political Experts Who Will Save Humanity From Itself”. Time to clean house and dismantle this mess.

7 responses so far

Aug 02 2009

Sarah Palin Is A Real Threat To The Political Industrial Complex

Published by under 2010 Elections,Sarah Palin

I read yesterday about the nasty, viscous rumors swirling around the liberal fevered swamps. Seems when they lose something (like government run health care) their small, angry minds must search out satisfaction making up lies about their most feared adversaries – average Americans. And there is no larger threat to the sick, liberal, elitists than Sarah Palin. Not only am I glad to see the rumors were false (though I pretty much knew that since I decided not to post on the topic and went to see Paul McCartney last night at DC’s Fedex Field without giving the matter a second thought), I am also glad to see the leftwing nuts take another devastating hit in their credibility. In fact, this is a two-fer, one hit for spreading malicious lies and another hit for the giddy glee they exposed. They are, in fact. the worst of this great country.

Somebody has to be last, be the example of failure and poor emotional stability. These people are it:

Todd and Sarah Palin to divorce:

A National Enquirer story exposing previous affairs on both sides led to a deterioration of their marriage and the stress from that led to Palin’s resignation as governor of Alaska last week.

The National Enquirer? Oh please. Let me guess, one of the affairs was with a visiting Martian couple?

Exclusive! Sarah and Todd Palin are Splitsville!:

Earlier this week one of my best sources claimed to have explosive new information for me.

It took all week for us to finally get together, but last night we finally sat down for an amazing conversation. And what I heard made my jaw drop.

This from the aptly named ‘immoral minority’ – aka ‘scum of the earth’, ‘big  time loser’, whiney wannabe’. This is what we learned from the top link about this source:

UPDATE by RAM: So, let me understand the “story” according to Zaki and other “journalists”…

At the beginning of the month, Zaki reported that Gov. Palin was being investigated by the FBI and was going to jail. That turned out to be false. Last week, the ADN reported that Gov. Palin was moving to the Hamptons. That turned out to be false. Today, Zaki reports that Gov. Palin is moving to Montana after throwing her wedding ring into Lake Lucille. That turns out to be false.

They are reporting blatant lies. Quit making things up! 

Like I said – scum. Definitely not our nation’s finest. 

What this blow up exposes is a searing fear on the liberal left. They see Obama’s failures stacking up. They see him tacking to the center to salvage what he can. They see their global warming and government managed health care myths imploding. They are frightened that they are failing only a few steps from the golden ring.

This is just the beginning. These animals are cornered and so close to their treasure they will become much uglier. You can count on it.

4 responses so far

Aug 01 2009

Nation’s Political Industrial Complex Under Attack, Off Balance

The nation is coming of age politically this year. It is shedding its naive ‘follow the experts’ mentality that had us a nation of drones listening with awe to the talking heads (media and pols) who saturated the air waves since the days of World War II. With control over the message the nation the political industrial complex – made up of politicians, their media lackeys, the media’s preferred list of expert opinion makers and the power brokers behind the scenes pulling all the strings – basically had the nation under a trance. They told us what to think and made gobs of money for themselves.

But now in the age of the internet, the 24 hour news cycle and a blogosphere that can bring to bear the largest number of sharp and experienced minds outside of DC (and probably on the planet given our cultural and technological edge over the rest of the world) we see that trance breaking. We see the nation not only waking up but finding its voice. And it is not happy with the Political Industrial Complex that has grown up inside the snobby, elite halls of DC and NY City and LA. I am a product of this rarified community, and I can see quite clearly that these people are attempting to batten down the hatches behind their gated communities, they are hoarding their ill gotten gains and trying to throw their opposition to the sharks anyway they can.

It is a nauseating but needed spectacle, not unlike lancing an infected wound. 

The Political Industrial Complex has survived by pitting us against ourselves. They rail against the Military Industrial Complex – which provides a majority of our technological edge in the world markets. It rails against the Hollywood Industrial Complex – which has many times provided us vision, historic perspective and morale lessons. The Political Industrial Complex has railed against religion – which gives many the faith and energy to make it through hard times and heart breaking events.  They go after educators, power companies, etc. They are professional whiners nagging everyone else doing the work of this great nation.

They are now railing against our health care system – which has saved lives and made life better for millions upon millions of people. All in a transparent effort to transform our nation into their idiotic vision of what it should be. No one gave the authority to implement their personal world views by hook or crook, but that is what they are doing. We have a snobby, elite, clueless and inexperienced group of know-it-alls running this nation from their Political Industrial Complex (where they all pretend to fight then go party at night as best of friends), and they spend all their time trying to dupe us into not knowing what they are planning to do.

But they are now butting up against the actual heart of this nation – the people who make it great every day in millions of ways small and large. The Political Industrial Complex is run by the extremists – the fringes. They do not like the center, in fact they despise it. For all their spouted claims of revering this great nation and its innovative answer to tough solutions, the Political Industrial Complex does not like us to make our own choices, come up with our own solutions, voice our own ideas that typically bridge the gap between the extremes.

 One large indication of the battle between the liberal old guard inside the Political Industrial Complex and the rest of the country is the compromise made in the House Energy and Commerce committee:

Seeking to dampen liberal anger about deals cut with centrists, Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) said House leaders have agreed to allow a floor vote on a government-run, single-payer system.

“A lot of members on our committee want a vote on that,” said Waxman said in an interview. “I believe their wishes will be accommodated.”

Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) offered a single-payer amendment in the Energy and Commerce Committee on Friday, but withdrew it after Waxman said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) had promised a floor vote. 

This will be rich to watch. A government monopoly on this nation’s health care is only desired by a small and extremely naive element of the country. 80% of this nation are happy with the quality of their care and would not trade quality for saving some money. This concession indicates an important break between the liberal extremists and the rest of the nation. Now these liberals will have to convince the immutable opposition inside the GOP and centrists Dems to not get slaughtered in a floor vote. Yeah. like that’s not going to happen.

But the GOP part of the Political Industrial Complex is just as much at risk for credibility damage. I really, really admire Mark Steyn, but today I think his paranoia got the better of him as he put out the worse political advice possible for Republicans:

Health-care “reform”? As we’ve seen this past week in the House of Representatives, put not your trust in “Blue Dog Democrats.” And, as we’ll no doubt see in the weeks ahead in the Senate, put not your trust in “moderate Republicans” whose urge to “reach across the aisle” is so reflexive it ought to be covered by the Americans with Disabilities Act.

The president needs to get something passed. Anything. The details don’t matter. Once it’s in place, health-care “reform” can be re-reformed endlessly. Indeed, you’ll be surprised how little else we talk about. So, for example, public funding for abortions can be discarded now, and written in — as it surely will be by some judge — down the road. What matters is to ram it through, get it done, pass it now — in whatever form.

If this seems a perverse obsession for a nation with a weak economy, rising unemployment, and a war on two fronts, it has a very sound strategic logic behind it. As I wrote in National Review a week or two back, health care is the fastest way to a permanent left-of-center political culture. 

I don’t think allowing for insurance collectives or pools for small businesses and individuals will be the end of western civilization as we know it. The Medicare Rx benefit enacted under President Bush which is a purely market driven benefit is not the end of the world, but is the kind of free market alliance with the federal safety net programs which serves both interests well – not to mention all the people getting the benefit.

Steyn is fallowing the Amnesty Hypochondriac path which destroyed the GOP governing coalition in the first place. You can find imperfections in any approach and then exaggerate them into end of the world scenarios all day long. That takes no talent or genius or leadership. I hate to say it this bluntly, but losers and failures always find excuses not to take a risk and possibly succeed. It is the security blanket of the status quo types – find some reason to be frozen in place.

The Political Industrial Complex is now under attack and off balance. It is, once again, attacking the centrists with end of the world nonsense. And it is attacking anybody from Main Street ready to take the risks to move this country forward. And the best example of this fear based lashing out is Sarah Palin, as John Hawkins accurately notes today:

Then along came Sarah Palin, whom most conservatives viewed as the lone bright spot of the 2008 campaign. Here’s a woman that many conservatives identify with not only because they believe she really shares their values, but because she is genuinely what so many other politicians pretend to be. She’s a person who got where she is based on merit and she found success without the advantage of being born in the right family, being wealthy, or being given a break because she went to an Ivy League school.

Even after the GOP lost the election, the all-out assault on Sarah Palin and her family continued. Why attack a mere governor of Alaska as opposed to Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn, John Boehner, Mitt Romney, or Mike Huckabee? Because Palin managed to generate more enthusiasm amongst conservatives than all of those people combined. Liberals correctly identified Sarah Palin as the biggest danger to them in the entire Republican Party and they’re doing everything they can to eliminate that threat.

An unspoken assumption was made by many conservatives: Palin is like me and the real problem that Palin’s enemies on the right have with her is that they’re snobs and they don’t accept common people like me in their leadership.

Given the way that conservatives are regularly betrayed and the contempt for them that some Republicans have shown over the last few years, that assessment is probably correct more often than not.

That’s why a lot of conservatives react to criticism of Palin from the right the same way that they react to criticism of Reagan. Granted, Sarah Palin is no Ronald Reagan. But one of the seldom discussed reasons conservatives love Reagan so much is because he was the personification of their principles. This was the man who put what conservatives believed in to the test in the real world and proved the worth of their ideas. An attack on Reagan from the right was not just considered to be a slap at a politician, politician, but was also treated like an assault on the value system of “Reagan conservatives.”

Sarah Palin has become the lightning rod for the panicked Political Industrial Complex. They know if Palin succeeds there is an army of normal Americans who will stand up and run against the idiots now in power. They know the entire Political Industrial Complex would be re-staffed. They know if anyone like Palin ever gets a foot hold their golden goose is cooked.

And if you doubt that look what has happened to Obama – who is about to be sacrificed on the altar of self preservation of the Political Industrial Complex. I agree with John at Powerline that the damage to his credibility that he took over his failed stimulus package, the jaw dropping deficits and his Obamacare debacle have left him permanently damaged goods:

As a candidate–especially, as a candidate almost wholly unscrutinized by the press–he could try to be all things to all people, with some success. But a mere six months in office have revealed the real Barack Obama: a hard-left liberal. Hence this survey from today’s Rasmussen Reports. Seventy-six percent of likely voters now classify Obama as a liberal, with a remarkable 48 percent terming him “very liberal.”


I don’t believe anyone who was generally regarded as “very liberal” has ever been elected President; not since Franklin Roosevelt, anyway. So I don’t think it is unreasonable for us conservatives to hope for the best of both worlds: a modest recovery in our 401Ks, and a new President in 2013.

What will happen to liberals after their floor vote on a government take over of health care fails miserably? The only way to pass that abomination was under the cover of a ruse, to dupe America into believing it was something else – like lowering cost and increasing access. But now it is going to be out in the open, naked to national scrutiny.

When the polls start coming in showing America would prefer a war with Iran over nationalized health care, what will happen? Centrists are the targets of both fringes right now. Both fringes are pushing the panic button, screaming the end of the world is nigh if centrists rule the day.

It is a strange time for our nation when DC is basically at war with the nation it pretends to represent. What will be the result? Will the political industrial complex, in sheer panic, pull a coup d’etat? Or will the centrists rule out and bring the nation back into balance. Time will tell.

14 responses so far

Oct 18 2008

The Political Industrial Complex Strikes Back!



The Political Industrial Complex – which has been running this country into the ground over the last couple of decades – is that group of elitists, left and right, who believe they have a special place on earth as the only ones capable of leading the free world. They are the ones who attacked Sarah Palin for being such a commoner. They are the Peggy Noonans, David Frums, Chris Buckleys and David Brookes who prioritize the Political Industrial Complex (PIC) over any and all conservative values and policies. When asked to chose between the two they chose to cover their paychecks and stick with the choice of the Political Industrial Complex – Barrack Obama.

I was listening to Laura Ingraham yesterday as it sunk in on her what these people were doing (along with the two-digit IQ wonder Bill O’Reilly). They were throwing away everything they supposedly stood for because someone like Sarah (and her commoner followers) dared to offer herself up to lead this country. Noonan especially stinks of jealousy and snobbery. I never realized how impressed she was with her irritating upper-crust speaking patterns and accents.

As Governor Sarah takes a beating from this cadre of elitists, along with Joe The Plumber’s personal life and most pathetically John McCain’s skin, the PIC is coming out en masse to herald their new emperor:

The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for newspaper endorsements, picking up 17 more papers in the past day, including the giant Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune on Friday afternoon (see separate story), and the Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune, Kansas City Star, Southwest News-Herald (Ill.) and Chicago Sun-Times tonight.

This brings his lead over McCain-Palin by this measure to well over 3-1, at 58-16, including most of the major papers that have decided so far.

As if we didn’t know legs were tingling throughout the news media rooms over Obama??? Folks, if you think the dunces on TV are superior geniuses and will fix this world by all means vote with them. But this NASA engineer who worked on the internet before Al Gore even knew what it was is not fooled by people reading teleprompters and reciting canned answers in vague and undefinable terms. And I doubt you folks are very impressed with them either.

Update: BTW – how damn dumb do you have to be to work for CBS:

The Republican National Committee is sending around this Associated Press photo of overall-clad McCain supporters standing outside an Obama rally, clutching plungers and a sign proclaiming “I Am Joe The Plumber”:

The only problem? At least two of the members aren’t quite as similar to the newly famous Joe Wurzelbacher as they might like you to think.

And the man on the left, plunger thrust high in the air, is Charlie Smith – the National Chairman of the College Republicans

OMG – what a dipstick.  Dude, look up ‘metaphor’ or ‘analogy’! And after that look up ‘moron’.

20 responses so far

Oct 13 2008

Polls Tightening, Political Industrial Complex Off It’s Collective Rockers

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Major Update: Seems we have more proof of how bad the polls really are for Obama:

As I mentioned yesterday, my brother is paid staff with the McCain campaign. Two nights ago there was a conference call, where they released internals on GA, VA, and OH.

McCain was up HUGE in those states. They are not worried about those states.

If McCain is not worried about VA and OH, the PA is probably in play and has Obama and the Dems in a near panic. I said it weeks ago, but the race will be determined by PA and VA, and if either candidate can take both it means a lot of states will swing as well and this will be an electoral landslide. H/T Kim Priestap – end update

It seems we have a tightening race, if one looks at the daily tracking polls out there today. But first I want to focus on a couple of polls out recently for what they indicate about the lack of quality in the polls. First is the Newsweek poll which Jim Geraghty, over at The Campaign Spot, assessed and determined was pure BS:

You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. …  You have McCain winning independents by 2 percent, 45 to 43.

And this adds up to an 11-percent Obama lead in your latest poll.

Of course this doesn’t add up. The only way to create an 11% lead with a tie like this is to assume Obama gets an enormous surge of support and no Hillary supporters defect to McCain. It is that last assumption that kills most polls and makes them garbage. But even the first assumption is way off. Independents will select the winner, and there are many independents truly excited over Governor Palin. Her crowds rival Obama’s, her debate audience surpassed that of Obama’s by millions. And then there are the angry, populists crowds out there railing against Obama. I see the intensity factor rapidly becoming a draw.

I have to laugh at all the idiots crying foul about a populist uprising against Obama headed by Governor Palin. After decades of the left claiming the GOP was responsible for the dragging deaths of gays, and would starve children and old people to feed corporate coffers, the idea that a woman has come out of the Northwest and called out the politicians for being elitist, cliquish, snobs who have no connection to the American People (but sure find time to hang around the terrorists like Bill Ayers) has the Political Industrial Complex stumped. The more they wail, the more Americans realize the best punishment for DC is to send in Sarah to kick some butt.

Victor Davis Hanson dissects the wailing of the elitists left and right best – so I won’t go into it in detail. The point is the temperature is rising because the anti-Obama forces are starting to roil. Which makes optimistic turnout models for Obama very risky. The folks fed up with DC are fed up with pollsters, the news media, the talking heads, the deal makers, the lobbyists, the power brokers and the politicians. They realize a power hungry clique has taken hold of the country’s levers of power and have been feeding them BS and keeping them in the dark for years now. But Americans are not mushrooms and they can make their displeasure known.

With a 90% wrong track numbers, historic lows for Congress, historic lows for the news media there is more of a chance there is a quiet and determined wave about to smash DC than there is a wave to anoint DC’s “chosen one”. And this is Obama’s Achilles Heel coming into the final stretch as the leader in the race. Everyone in the dungheap of DC is rooting for Obama now. Conservatives like Brooks are calling the lady from the backbone of America a ‘cancer’. Well, America sees Brooks and his cronies in DC as the cancer. The way to excise that cancer is to bring in what the cancer fears most.

So let me get to the next poll out recently, the newly schizoid Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. I am being very cheeky here because Gallup is doing what I have been asking pollster to do for a while now – show us a range of turnout model predictions. Just like a storm track cone, different turnout model assumptions give different trajectories. So Gallup as done the nation a favor here and shown how turnout assumptions are driving Obama’s tilted numbers in many polls. Here’s their data:

Now we can see as fact how turnout models are twisting the polls (like the Newsweek joke we discussed above). First, note how Obama’s support is very large in the general pool of ‘registered’ voters. This is the standard tilt to the left of the general population, who don’t all vote. When you focus down on ‘likely’ voters we see the classic 3-5% shift to the right (which will be there all the way to the final voting day). Obama’s lead goes from +7% down to +4% using the classic polling model. 

Now Gallup tries to inject some momentum in the race by attempting to relate the willingness to talk to pollsters as momentum for one side. As long as the willingness to talk to pollsters is directly tied to willingness to get out and vote, this is could measure any momentum for Obama. But given the fact Palin attracts the same or bigger crowds, even on national TV, I seriously doubt Obama has the edge in momentum anymore. Sarah Palin was a risky gamble, but she may well prove decisive. If you look the Gallup Numbers related to ‘intensity’, Obama jumps back to a +6% lead.

The Gallup Internals show a different race. The party affiliation numbers show a tie race, and maybe a McCain lead because he is winning the middle (Obama takes +3 for the middle left-right groups, but McCain takes +9 from the hardcore independents). I would not be doing what RCP is doing and even factor in the Gallup ‘intensity’ numbers, because if this was a complete analysis there would be a scenario that would have reasonable assumptions that favor McCain. Like the fact Palin and anger at Obama’s liberal leanings will offset any Obama surge – just as Hillary supporters kept Obama from winning the primaries outright. There is a model that should be run where McCain’s supporters are grossly under measured due to the fact the will not participate in the polls. And that could mean the third possible trajectory is a +5% lead for McCain. 

In my mind that makes the +4% lead from the conventional poll model the middle of the spectrum of possible outcomes, not the most pro-McCain scenario.

Newsweek did the same thing but without telling their readers. They took what would be a historically tied race and gave a huge (and unproven) boost to Obama, basically deciding he would bring out 11% more voters to the polls.  And he will do this relying on the most unreliable of voters, the young.  

I have seen and documented this tilt in poll internals for weeks now, as I did with the Morning Call PA Poll. That poll hillariously has a 15% difference in voter turnout between Dems and Reps, even though that state was won by George W Bush by only 2.5% in 2004.  I don’t for a minute believe McCain-Palin is down by 15%, I am not even sure they are down 5%. This poll is why the PA numbers are so far off and you will find Obama in that state trying to hold on to any lead he may have.

As of today Obama’s one time +8% lead in the Rasmussen poll has shrunk down to +5% in the last week. At this rate of decline (if held steady and there is no reason to assume it will hold steady) McCain would win easily three weeks from now.

The Gallup numbers are even more stunning, going from +11% to +4-6% (depending on which model you want to rely on) in a week. Even the more optimistic models show that this rate of decline would result in a McCain win by the time we go to vote.

We may be about to see the next President Dewey.

Update: I want to agree with Hanson about why so many are jumping ship on Palin to save their careers in the Political Industrial Complex.

Second, with Obama now with an 6-8 point lead, some in the DC/NY corridor these last three weeks figure it’s time now to jump or at least sort of jump, since the train they think is leaving the station and there might be still be some space at the dinner table on the caboose. They also believe as intellectuals that the similarly astute Obamians may on occasion inspire, or admire them as the like-minded who cultivate the life of the mind-in contrast to the “cancer” Sarah Palin, who, with her husband Todd, could hardly discuss Proust with them or could offer little if any sophisticated table-talk other than the proper chokes on shotguns or optimum RPMs on snow-machines.

Not to mention keeping their mugs in front of the TV cameras and thus their paychecks nice and fat.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

48 responses so far

Oct 05 2008

Political Industrial Complex Reacts To Palin – And Shows ITS Weakness

Two talking heads on NBC’s Meet The Press illustrated why Palin is the premier candidate in this race. Paul Begala tried to address Palin’s comments about Obama’s relationship to Bill Ayers, the unrepentant terrorist. Begala’s efforts to turn this around were laughable. He started by saying “guilt by association” would not work Bush-McCain, Bush-McCain, Bush-McCain). He then went on to note some ultra conservative group from the 1980’s tied to McCain, which begs the question, did these fokls bomb anyone?

Addendum: How far as Bennedict Noonan crossed to the dark side? She wants to deck McCain for getting upset with totally bogus questions about Palin. I think by the end of this round table America was fed up with the Political Industrial Complex.

It was a joke and it probably backfired for those handful of people dumb enough to waste their morning watching the show.

Peggy Noonan came on later and went back into her uber-snobbery role again, asking why should any candidate try and be a ‘populist’. Like Obama is not running as a populist? You could smell the arrogance from Noonan (showing why the panel was all anti-Palin, and a classic example of inside the DC snobs). Noonan is an William Buckley wannabe, failing miserably. No attacks? She has put herself out to pasture.

One comment had LJStrata and I laughing.  When Palin was openly ignoring the questions in the debate, the panel recognized the ‘transparency’ of her intentions. We rubes out here in America applauded her “honesty”. The fact the Political Industrial Complex cannot distinguish between “transparency” and “honesty” you can see why America wants to throw the complete mess out.

One response so far

Oct 01 2008

Proof Positive Palin Has A Touch The Political Industrial Complex Doesn’t Get

Kathleen Parker is out whining that more people see HER as inept and buffoonish than see those traits in Sarah Palin. Parker is now the darling of the liberal elite attacking Sarah Palin, since she is one of the few conservative elite who ‘get’s it’.  As I said when Parker wrote her first hand-wringing bit of DC snobbery, Parker is the one not ready for prime time and she is the one who should step down from the public debate as a conservative (basically using the same logic on Parker she tried to use on Palin).

The response to her idiotic fantasy for Palin to step down (like somehow that would make McCain look better) has been more than she expected:

The fierce reaction to my column has been both bracing and enlightening. After 20 years of column writing, I’m familiar with angry mail. But the past few days have produced responses of a different order. Not just angry, but vicious and threatening.

Some of my usual readers feel betrayed because I previously have written favorably of Palin. By changing my mind and saying so, I am viewed as a traitor to the Republican Party — not a “true” conservative.

The emotional pitch of many comments suggests an overinvestment in Palin as “one of us.”

Palin’s fans say they like her specifically because she’s an outsider, not part of the Washington club. When she flubs during interviews, they identify with that, too. “You see the lack of polish, we applaud it,” one reader wrote.

Of course, there’s a difference between a lack of polish and a lack of coherence. Some of Palin’s interview responses can’t even be critiqued on their merits because they’re so nonsensical. But even that is someone else’s fault, say Palin supporters. The media make her uncomfortable.

Incoherence, dear Kathleen, is writing garbage that claims the only way to save the McCain campaign is to dump the dumb hick from Alaska. If we dumb rubes outside the beltway are clear on a few things, we know that will not ‘fix’ any issues with Palin – or the liberal media attack dogs who will write lies to get Obama elected.

I highlighted the most condescending and arrogant part of this ridiculous post to note why the folks in DC do not get what is happening nor what will happen. There is no such thing as too many Americans investing in Sarah Palin, except if you are opposed to Palin and all those Americans who connect to her. Parker is learning a career changing lesson here (she may go down in history as the bitter lady who tried to stop President Palin from ever getting her chance to change history), at least she should be.

The defensive tone of her commentary, that she should be lauded for taking a stab at America’s champion, especially when the jab boils down to Palin being just like us.  Not steeped in the inside the beltway special tongues, lingo and latest buzz – which makes that crowd one of the snootiest on the planet.  Trust me, I have spent my entire life around these people.

Parker doesn’t get it because she has no connection to average America any more. Her world is that of the Political Industrial Complex of politicians, consultants, talking heads and the news media. It is the echo chamber of failure which has 80% of Americans wishing they could dump the whole lot and start over.

It is the arrogance these people think they have all they answers, they are a gift from God sent down to lead the masses to a brighter future. Check out this bit of wonderment:

In the meantime, though, I would note that this assault and my decision to write about it aren’t really about me — or even Sarah Palin. The mailbag is about us, our country, and what we really believe.

No Kathleen, it really is about Sarah Palin and how she is one of us. And it is about your lack of confidence and really dumb call for her to step down.  You have shown us you are not one of us, we make you cringe in our unpolished and unscripted bluntness. Yu are one of those out to save the world from itself, too much ego and not enough trust in America.

The save the world claptrap might be a plausible line if DC was working and this nation’s political class was acting like mature adults and getting things done. But DC is reverting back to the swamps it rose out of and so any claims to lofty goals are a joke. Sarah is one of us with the backbone and nerves to start cleaning out the trash in DC. And you just put yourself on the wrong side of that movement.

It was your decision – don’t blame the 80% of this nation who are fed up with broken government and the egos that refuse to admit their failures.  

There are many on the right who are just as bad (if not worse) than Parker. David Frum seems to stand in front of any woman breaking through (remember his callous treatment of Harriet Miers?).  A man I admire very much, Charles Krauthammer has also falling into the trap of the Political Industrial Complex tribe and echo chamber. Expect more to fall. 80% of the people cannot be wrong, even if 100% of the people in DC don’t like our solution.

14 responses so far

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